Gut feeling only- HC

Maverick008 said:
The difference to me is the lack of experience for Kellen. IF Kellen was coming off his first head coaching job like his dad was then sure. But do you want Kellen to go 103-103 at OU like his dad did at Wash. St? If that’s his record I doubt he’s at OU long enough to then have that major impact on the program in a positive way.
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Kelvin likely went 103-103 at Washington State because it was Washington State.

I also think that in 2021 compared to 1987 (when Kelvin landed the HC job at WSU), an assistant like Kellen is probably more prepared at this point then Kelvin was at that point. A lot has changed in those 35 years about the game, technology, society, and roles for assistant coaches.

I'll say it again, I'm not saying there isn't a risk with Kellen. But there are different risks for every coach he could hire. I just don't want 7-8 more years of what we just had under Lon, and I think that is Moser's ceiling. I might be wrong. Joe C. is doing the interviews, so he is going to have WAY more information than any of us. Maybe Kellen turns us down. Maybe Joe C. went other directions first. We'll never know. If it's Moser, I'll go on record one more time about my concerns, then I'll support him and hope for the best.

It's not like a I have a history of not liking who OU hires either. I was ecstatic about the Capel hire. That didn't work out. I was less "excited" about the Lon hire, but as my FB memories showed me yesterday (the day Lon was hired), I said he was a solid coach that gets his team to the Tournament, and he'll do things the right way. I have concerns with Moser. I'm entitled to feel that way.
 
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Fun fact - Moser has recruited several players from the state of KS while at Loyola (2nd most behind IL). His top recruit this year is from Texas.
 
Sooner04 said:
You know, Kelvin arrived here after seven seasons at Washington State without a single NCAA win. Don't underestimate what can happen when a coach is given access to better resources.

If we'd hired Moser immediately after the FF run I'd be inclined to agree with you, but to make another Sweet 16 run a few years later suggests he's more than a flash in the pan. They hadn't been to the tournament since the mid-80s and now he's taken them to the second weekend twice in four years. That's twice more than us in the same time frame!
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There you go with the introduction of common sense. The possibilities of the intended outcome are rather far ranging, for a coach who everyone likes might very well fall on his face, while the underwhelming choice might be good to better than good. We all shall see.
 
Sooner04... dead on. Kelvin accomplished very little before coming here. However, he did pretty darn good when you consider that Washington State is a HORRIBLE basketball program.

Any time I advocate for someone, I always apply the context and circumstances, and then think about how it would go specifically at OU. The "at OU" part is the most important thing there.

I don't think Mike Anderson would do particularly well at Boston College.... but I think he would do really well at Oklahoma.

Fred Hoiberg did great at Iowa State, but he's not doing great at Nebraska.

You can't look only at what someone has accomplished and determine if they will be good at Oklahoma... You have to assess multiple data points.

  1. Did they do well at a program that isn't as good as OU?
  2. Was the job they had harder to win at than at OU?
  3. Do they have any ties to the area?
  4. Do their recruiting practices fit in with what is required to win at OU?
  5. Will they try to put a square peg in a round hole and win "their way"? Or will they adapt to the circumstances present at OU?
  6. Can their style work well at OU?

Let's use a name I have thrown out.... Mike Anderson.

  • Is it harder to win at Missouri, Arkansas, UAB, St. Johns than at OU?
  • Did he do well historically for those programs?
  • Does Mike have ties to the area?
  • If you look at how he recruited at Arkansas and Missouri (lesser programs), does that fit well with OU?
  • Would 40 minutes of hell work at OU?

Missouri
Before his arrival at Missouri, the Tigers had turned in consecutive sub .500 seasons. Over his final three campaigns in Columbia, Missouri went 77-29, highlighted by a run to the Elite Eight in 2009, a year in which the Tigers also posted 31 total wins and won the Big 12 Tournament.

UAB
Alabama-Birmingham was 13-17 the season before he arrived and 21-13
in his initial season, 2002-03. Led the Blazers to 20-plus wins and a postseason berth in each of his four campaigns at the helm. Following an NIT Quarterfinal appearance in his first season, UAB made three-straight NCAA Tournaments, including a run to the 2004 Sweet 16 that featured wins over Washington and Kentucky, the year’s number one overall seed.

Arkansas
Arkansas had 4 losing seasons under the coaches before he arrived. First head coach in program history to win 18 or more games in each of his first four years... Anderson has never had a losing season in his career.

His style consistently produces good offensive numbers... His teams have led C-USA, SEC, and Big East in scoring, steals, assists, etc.... His teams are always national leaders in steals and assists... Could that be improved upon at OU?

When I take all that into consideration.... I think it's pretty much guaranteed he would win at OU. He would put a good product on the floor. He would recruit well... Etc.

Now, I know he isn't on the radar and it sounds like its going to be the Chicago guy.... But I was just explaining my mindset when I throw a name out.
 
allday92 said:
Hmm, so it's got to be someone not coaching in the final four right now.

Got to be Moser, Najera, McCasland or Mills. Unless there is an outside of the box candidate we haven't covered.
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Not necessarily. Was the Alvin Brooks named coach this week the one from Kelvins staff?
 
He can go back to Loyola at any point that he wants for a similar salary. Should not be an issue. Would be a solid hire, but not an exciting one. I think the Bo Ryan comparison was pretty spot on.
 
Eielson said:
My gut feeling is that Moser is the favorite if announced today. But my gut feeling is that he'll pick somebody we're not expecting, per usual.
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As Coach says only Joe knows but there is more rumblings about Moser.
 
Matthew G said:
Moser was offered a contract. Hasn't accepted yet.

https://twitter.com/AdamZagoria/status/1378012441448214540
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Posted this on TOS, but this is kind of disappointing if Joe C really feels he is the guy to take this program forward.

It's not surprising by Joe C to be pinching pennies, but kind of a cheap lowball offer to an established HC with recent success, don't you think? That is if OU is in that $2MM range also. I know it would be a hefty raise for him but it would make him the lowest-paid HC in the Big XII.

Maybe that and the message it sends could be the reason he is genuinely thinking it over.

To me, this is part of, or maybe the biggest part of, our problem, Joe C/the Athletic Dept/or BMDs are unwilling to go all-in for basketball in commitment, dollars, or resources. Arena, marketing, recruiting budget, coaching salaries, etc.

If we will only commit lower to midlevel resources, we can only anticipate midlevel results with an occasional outlier season.
 
It's been a tough year, financially. Is it possible Joe C. doesn't have more money to offer?
 
MJSooner said:
Posted this on TOS, but this is kind of disappointing if Joe C really feels he is the guy to take this program forward.

It's not surprising by Joe C to be pinching pennies, but kind of a cheap lowball offer to an established HC with recent success, don't you think? That is if OU is in that $2MM range also. I know it would be a hefty raise for him but it would make him the lowest-paid HC in the Big XII.

Maybe that and the message it sends could be the reason he is genuinely thinking it over.

To me, this is part of, or maybe the biggest part of, our problem, Joe C/the Athletic Dept/or BMDs are unwilling to go all-in for basketball in commitment, dollars, or resources. Arena, marketing, recruiting budget, coaching salaries, etc.

If we will only commit lower to midlevel resources, we can only anticipate midlevel results with an occasional outlier season.
Click to expand...

Where did you get $2million? My guess is it's closer to 3.
 
MJSooner said:
Posted this on TOS, but this is kind of disappointing if Joe C really feels he is the guy to take this program forward.

It's not surprising by Joe C to be pinching pennies, but kind of a cheap lowball offer to an established HC with recent success, don't you think? That is if OU is in that $2MM range also. I know it would be a hefty raise for him but it would make him the lowest-paid HC in the Big XII.

Maybe that and the message it sends could be the reason he is genuinely thinking it over.

To me, this is part of, or maybe the biggest part of, our problem, Joe C/the Athletic Dept/or BMDs are unwilling to go all-in for basketball in commitment, dollars, or resources. Arena, marketing, recruiting budget, coaching salaries, etc.

If we will only commit lower to midlevel resources, we can only anticipate midlevel results with an occasional outlier season.
Click to expand...

Now that's a lot of commas!
 
Competing with Loyola Chicago for a head basketball is not ideal.
 
MJSooner said:
Posted this on TOS, but this is kind of disappointing if Joe C really feels he is the guy to take this program forward.

It's not surprising by Joe C to be pinching pennies, but kind of a cheap lowball offer to an established HC with recent success, don't you think? That is if OU is in that $2MM range also. I know it would be a hefty raise for him but it would make him the lowest-paid HC in the Big XII.

Maybe that and the message it sends could be the reason he is genuinely thinking it over.

To me, this is part of, or maybe the biggest part of, our problem, Joe C/the Athletic Dept/or BMDs are unwilling to go all-in for basketball in commitment, dollars, or resources. Arena, marketing, recruiting budget, coaching salaries, etc.

If we will only commit lower to midlevel resources, we can only anticipate midlevel results with an occasional outlier season.
Click to expand...



I think it's a 6 year 18m total, so 3m a year average.


Rumor is Loyola is offering like an 8 or 10 year deal at 2m a year, and with his family being from Chicago, and the fact that ND is his dream school that could open soon, he might stay a few more years for family before getting the ND job.
 
pnkranger said:
Where did you get $2million? My guess is it's closer to 3.
Click to expand...
It was reported that Loyola countered with a 10 year deal at $2MM, which tells me OU's offer is a little higher for Loyola to go 10 years. I would hope it would be in the $3MM range, but I am not sure Loyola's offer would be competitive, even at 10 years vs. 6 years, for a $1MM a year difference.

As it stands today, Webber is the lowest-paid coach in the Big XII at $2.7MM. Prohm was $2.4.
 
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