Last Night and why I worry about PM

[stormspencer]

I rewind & try to take tidbits/sets/adjustments from coaches as often as I can. In 2 years I haven’t taken 1 thing from Moser.

We finally ran a really good BLOB (Baseline Out of Bounds) play that led to Jalen getting fouled on a shot. It's literally the only BLOB play that I can point to all season where it looked good and was well executed out of a timeout.....I'm serious. In far too many games this season, there were a handful of plays that we didn't make that could've made the difference in the outcome (missing 1and1s, poor and too late adjustments, not putting the team in the best position to win, etc.). It's on the Coach AND the players, but the coach is getting paid millions to limit mistakes and improve the team. Failure on both accounts.

 

[TINY]

It really is interesting how there is this consensus out there in college sports that you automatically have to give coaches three or four years unless there is some off the court issue. Look at a couple of the schools that made moves today. Did Cal really think Fox was going to get things going a couple years ago? Or Georgetown and Ewing? There are plenty more examples. If a coach inherits NCAA sanctions or a program that hasn’t made the tournament in years, maybe it's appropriate to give him at least three years. But even then, I feel like you can tell whether a guy can really coach. You might lose games, but you look like a cohesive, well-coached, disciplined team. If you don’t see those things for two years, why wait and suffer through more pathetic seasons?

simple, the buyout is $6 million. Ou hoops donor game is broke af. It affects all aspects of the program.

 

[opsooner]

simple, the buyout is $6 million. Ou hoops donor game is broke af. It affects all aspects of the program.

Yep. This is most depressing thing to me. This was the worst performance by a second year coach (and it’s not even close) since I have been seriously following OU basketball, starting with Dave Bliss.

I have a very difficult time picturing a sunrise over this program for quite a few years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[61sooner]

PM reminds me of Doyle Parrack who coached OU when I attended in the late 1950s. Parrrack was a disciple of Hank Iba and ran a slow boring system that failed miserably. And he would also look frantic on the sidelines.
OU should bite the bullet with PM before we are in such a hole that we can't climb out of m it.
Does JC think a miracle is going to happen next season? If he has pulled a double wiff on football and basketball then he should retire also.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Yep. This is most depressing thing to me. This was the worst performance by a second year coach (and it’s not even close) since I have been seriously following OU basketball, starting with Dave Bliss.

I have a very difficult time picturing a sunrise over this program for quite a few years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That is a very small parameter of stats to look in. If we are just cherry-picking seasons, based on record alone and objective opinion, then I guess?

But let's look at the actual results (Using KenPom, which goes back to 2002):

Year| KP Rank | SOS | Coach
2023- 51-- 2 Moser
2022- 30-- 7 Moser
2021- 39-- 43 Kruger
2020- 36-- 5 Kruger
2019- 32-- 3 Kruger
2018- 48-- 5 Kruger
2017- 65-- 2 Kruger
2016- 10-- 1 Kruger
2015- 11-- 5 Kruger
2014- 30-- 20 Kruger
2013- 51-- 27 Kruger
2012- 105- 41 Kruger
2011- 144- 48 Capel
2010- 104- 13 Capel
2009- 7---- 29 Capel
2008- 44-- 18 Capel
2007- 58-- 62 Capel
2006- 45-- 60 Sampson
2005- 12-- 34 Sampson
2004- 56-- 43 Sampson
2003- 9---- 24 Sampson
2002- 5---- 26 Sampson

So that means, based on season finishes, Moser has the 7th best and 15th best seasons out of the last 22. If you want to go a step further and look at coaching finishing averages:

25.4 Sampson
40.5 Moser
42.7 Kruger
71.4 Capel

Moser is currently our 2nd best coach in the last 22 years in season finishes averaged. Not to mention, all of those coaches above have had a worse season than Moser at some point.

Yes yes, "just give it time" responses. I also acknowledge it is a small sample size as well. I think it helps to see them laid out a bit, just to put the Moser tenure in perspective. As it is all not as gloom and doom as many of you tout it to be.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Yep. This is most depressing thing to me. This was the worst performance by a second year coach (and it’s not even close) since I have been seriously following OU basketball, starting with Dave Bliss.

I have a very difficult time picturing a sunrise over this program for quite a few years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

2nd year coaching finish:

Moser - 51st
Kruger - 51st
Capel - 44th

Is that close or?

 

[vbdad]

We shot 25%with a late flurry. PM hasn’t done a good coaching these guys. And these guys aren’t talented.
Joe will not get rid of him this year. Please don’t forget Joe doesn’t care about basketball until it gets NCAA issues or has a chance for final 4.

This is a guess by me but I bet first year Porter was extremely hamstrung in portal and NIL. I would guess less last year.

 

[WichitaSooner]

2nd year coaching finish:
Moser - 51st
Kruger - 51st
Capel - 44th

Is that close or?

You don’t specify which metric you are listing. I assume Ken Pom. Our NET is in the high 60s currently, so you cherry picked one metric that makes this year look less awful than it was. We made the tournament in the second year under Lon and Capel. Lon stepped into a much worse situation than Moser, and his team improved significantly in each of his first five years. Capel, or, more accurately, Blake Griffin, got us a six seed in year two. And even Capel inherited a tough situation because the great recruiting class Kelvin had sighed left, and there was no transfer portal to serve as a quick fix. But if you’re trying to support Moser by suggesting he is almost as good as Capel, that’s a backhanded compliment if I’ve ever seen one. But, again, both those coaches had us clearly trending up in year two, while Moser regressed significantly in year two.

 

[OUSKINS]

If you don’t want Moser fired, I 100% understand that and I actually feel the same way. I don’t think two years is enough.

But if you have ANY confidence that he’s going to do well at OU, then I would genuinely like to know what you’ve seen in his two years here that he’s about to turn this program into a big winner. I don’t see it at all. I very much hope I’m wrong- I like him personally. I believe he’s working as hard as he can and pouring himself into the job. And I also believe he’s a smart basketball coach. But I am not convinced he’s the right match for OU on a variety of levels.

This was a really, really bad year. If you are spinning it any other way, you are blinded by something. If last year and this year were flipped that would have been more acceptable to me- we would have shown improvement as opposed to regression. The fact that year 2 was worse than year 1 is very troubling to me.

I think he deserves at least one more year.

I also think we are likely sitting here this time next year perhaps coming off even a worse season than this one— in which case I imagine we’d be moving on. Hope I’m wrong. Rooting for him.

 

[TEvans4Three]

You don’t specify which metric you are listing. I assume Ken Pom. Our NET is in the high 60s currently, so you cherry picked one metric that makes this year look less awful than it was. We made the tournament in the second year under Lon and Capel. Lon stepped into a much worse situation than Moser, and his team improved significantly in each of his first five years. Capel, or, more accurately, Blake Griffin, got us a six seed in year two. And even Capel inherited a tough situation because the great recruiting class Kelvin had sighed left, and there was no transfer portal to serve as a quick fix. But if you’re trying to support Moser by suggesting he is almost as good as Capel, that’s a backhanded compliment if I’ve ever seen one. But, again, both those coaches had us clearly trending up in year two, while Moser regressed significantly in year two.

Did you read the post before? It is KP rank, clearly specified.

Not cherry picking if you read the previous post.

I am not arguing situations, I was pointing on that 2nd year coach is closer than "not even close" to an opinion from a previous poster.

Also, talk "cherry-picking" you drop off when we lose Blake and go from 10-65 in rank the next year under Kruger. If you are going to cherry-pick, at least show both sides of the argument. Also using Moser not getting in his first year as opposed to Lon's lower ranked team, is not that valid of a point. OU should have been in, was good enough to be a tournament team. He finished higher than Lon's team. We just got snubbed, that's it.

Regressed significantly, from 30-51, dropping 21 spots is a very subjective statement. Really need to define what a significant drop is. Is it 50 spots or is it 20 spots? It really is difficult to have a rational conversation on here sometimes.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Did you read the post before? It is KP rank, clearly specified.

Not cherry picking if you read the previous post.

I am not arguing situations, I was pointing on that 2nd year coach is closer than "not even close" to an opinion from a previous poster.

Also, talk "cherry-picking" you drop off when we lose Blake and go from 10-65 in rank the next year under Kruger. If you are going to cherry-pick, at least show both sides of the argument. Also using Moser not getting in his first year as opposed to Lon's lower ranked team, is not that valid of a point. OU should have been in, was good enough to be a tournament team. He finished higher than Lon's team. We just got snubbed, that's it.

Regressed significantly, from 30-51, dropping 21 spots is a very subjective statement. Really need to define what a significant drop is. Is it 50 spots or is it 20 spots? It really is difficult to have a rational conversation on here sometimes.

We were a borderline tournament team last year. Most mock brackets had us out. I understand that many Sooner fans feel we were snubbed, but the objective facts say it was a close call. I don’t consider that a snub. And if you suggest that we didn’t take a significant step back this year, I’d say you are the one who can’t have a rational discussion about this. And again, you are using one metric to support your argument. Our Net dropped nearly 30 spots. And yes, I’d call that significantly worse when there are only a few dozen teams that start the season with a realistic chance of getting an at large bid.

As for Lon’s numbers after year five, I didn’t reference them because obviously we don’t have any data for Moser beyond year two. Tell you what, if Moser is still here in a few years and is coming off a FF and several consecutive tournament appearances, I’ll be more than happy to give him a little slack. But as of now, he is coming off two unsuccessful seasons in as many attempts, and is trending down.

 

[TEvans4Three]

We were a borderline tournament team last year. Most mock brackets had us out. I understand that many Sooner fans feel we were snubbed, but the objective facts say it was a close call. I don’t consider that a snub. And if you suggest that we didn’t take a significant step back this year, I’d say you are the one who can’t have a rational discussion about this. And again, you are using one metric to support your argument. Our Net dropped nearly 30 spots. And yes, I’d call that significantly worse when there are only a few dozen teams that start the season with a realistic chance of getting an at large bid.

As for Lon’s numbers after year five, I didn’t reference them because obviously we don’t have any data for Moser beyond year two. Tell you what, if Moser is still here in a few years and is coming off a FF and several consecutive tournament appearances, I’ll be more than happy to give him a little slack. But as of now, he is coming off two unsuccessful seasons in as many attempts, and is trending down.

The NET did not exist prior to 2021, so I don't value that at all to look and compare over time. You can't tell me Kruger's NET, bc it doesn't exist. At least use another poll or something if you are going to cite it. KenPom is the best source we have for this, so I use that.

Again, perception and actual value is quantitative. I am providing advanced stats rankings to show a value-based perspective. I see significant as a LARGE gap or swing one way or the other...20 spots doesn't qualify for me. But perhaps our use of language is the subjective point here. Would "moderate" drop suffice? I come from the stats world and "significant" has a much heavier meaning, that is what I take issue with.

I am not saying I am happy that we dropped from 30-51. I am not saying that a 21 spot drop is good. What I am saying is that there are a lot on here who are under-valuing the end result like we are a 100+ ranked team. Fans saying this the worst team they have seen in 30 years is quite hyperbolic. They must have ignored several seasons in there. The stats don't show this being the worst season even in 22 years, and his overall coaching tenure isn't as bad as many make it out to be.

That said, if we drop from 51 further...then the talk of finding a new route is very much on the table. IMO

 

[BoulderSooner]

The NET did not exist prior to 2021, so I don't value that at all to look and compare over time. You can't tell me Kruger's NET, bc it doesn't exist. At least use another poll or something if you are going to cite it. KenPom is the best source we have for this, so I use that.

Again, perception and actual value is quantitative. I am providing advanced stats rankings to show a value-based perspective. I see significant as a LARGE gap or swing one way or the other...20 spots doesn't qualify for me. But perhaps our use of language is the subjective point here. Would "moderate" drop suffice? I come from the stats world and "significant" has a much heavier meaning, that is what I take issue with.

I am not saying I am happy that we dropped from 30-51. I am not saying that a 21 spot drop is good. What I am saying is that there are a lot on here who are under-valuing the end result like we are a 100+ ranked team. Fans saying this the worst team they have seen in 30 years is quite hyperbolic. They must have ignored several seasons in there. The stats don't show this being the worst season even in 22 years, and his overall coaching tenure isn't as bad as many make it out to be.

That said, if we drop from 51 further...then the talk of finding a new route is very much on the table. IMO

Kenpom is widely held as the best college basketball power ranking

 

[BoulderSooner]

That is a very small parameter of stats to look in. If we are just cherry-picking seasons, based on record alone and objective opinion, then I guess?

But let's look at the actual results (Using KenPom, which goes back to 2002):

Year| KP Rank | SOS | Coach
2023- 51-- 2 Moser
2022- 30-- 7 Moser
2021- 39-- 43 Kruger
2020- 36-- 5 Kruger
2019- 32-- 3 Kruger
2018- 48-- 5 Kruger
2017- 65-- 2 Kruger
2016- 10-- 1 Kruger
2015- 11-- 5 Kruger
2014- 30-- 20 Kruger
2013- 51-- 27 Kruger
2012- 105- 41 Kruger
2011- 144- 48 Capel
2010- 104- 13 Capel
2009- 7---- 29 Capel
2008- 44-- 18 Capel
2007- 58-- 62 Capel
2006- 45-- 60 Sampson
2005- 12-- 34 Sampson
2004- 56-- 43 Sampson
2003- 9---- 24 Sampson
2002- 5---- 26 Sampson

So that means, based on season finishes, Moser has the 7th best and 15th best seasons out of the last 22. If you want to go a step further and look at coaching finishing averages:

25.4 Sampson
40.5 Moser
42.7 Kruger
71.4 Capel

Moser is currently our 2nd best coach in the last 22 years in season finishes averaged. Not to mention, all of those coaches above have had a worse season than Moser at some point.

Yes yes, "just give it time" responses. I also acknowledge it is a small sample size as well. I think it helps to see them laid out a bit, just to put the Moser tenure in perspective. As it is all not as gloom and doom as many of you tout it to be.

thank you for the very rational post ..

 

[allday92]

That is a very small parameter of stats to look in. If we are just cherry-picking seasons, based on record alone and objective opinion, then I guess?

But let's look at the actual results (Using KenPom, which goes back to 2002):

Year| KP Rank | SOS | Coach
2023- 51-- 2 Moser
2022- 30-- 7 Moser
2021- 39-- 43 Kruger
2020- 36-- 5 Kruger
2019- 32-- 3 Kruger
2018- 48-- 5 Kruger
2017- 65-- 2 Kruger
2016- 10-- 1 Kruger
2015- 11-- 5 Kruger
2014- 30-- 20 Kruger
2013- 51-- 27 Kruger
2012- 105- 41 Kruger
2011- 144- 48 Capel
2010- 104- 13 Capel
2009- 7---- 29 Capel
2008- 44-- 18 Capel
2007- 58-- 62 Capel
2006- 45-- 60 Sampson
2005- 12-- 34 Sampson
2004- 56-- 43 Sampson
2003- 9---- 24 Sampson
2002- 5---- 26 Sampson

So that means, based on season finishes, Moser has the 7th best and 15th best seasons out of the last 22. If you want to go a step further and look at coaching finishing averages:

25.4 Sampson
40.5 Moser
42.7 Kruger
71.4 Capel

Moser is currently our 2nd best coach in the last 22 years in season finishes averaged. Not to mention, all of those coaches above have had a worse season than Moser at some point.

Yes yes, "just give it time" responses. I also acknowledge it is a small sample size as well. I think it helps to see them laid out a bit, just to put the Moser tenure in perspective. As it is all not as gloom and doom as many of you tout it to be.

Great post. The results aren't what any of us want, but the process is there. Sample size is small, but now its on Porter to win the portal.

 

[opsooner]

2nd year coaching finish:

Moser - 51st
Kruger - 51st
Capel - 44th

Is that close or?

I agree that you can find stats that disprove my statement and opinion. I’ve used the common phrase on here before, but if you torture the data long enough it will confess.

I made my statement based on team improvement and moving in the right direction. I know we play in the greatest conference ever, yada, yada, etc, etc. But he took us straight to the bottom in his second year. That is by far the worst of any coach in our small sample.

Again, I know this conference is much better than it was during past times. But I have to compare everyone based on how they are doing at the time. Are they competing well against our closest competition? We can at least say that everyone else in this conference is outperforming him.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[WichitaSooner]

Kenpom is widely held as the best college basketball power ranking

Ken Pom is a tool that was designed to be a predictive measure of how teams will perform game to game. We don’t need to look at predictive tools to see how OU performed in 2013 or 2006 or 2023. You know why? Those seasons have already been played to their completion. To the extent the data suggest that we should have won more games this season than we did, or that we were closer to the 06 or 13 teams than some might expect, have you considered that maybe the reason we didn’t, in fact, win more games is because we were poorly coached and couldn’t stop puking all over ourselves in close games? Close games are won and lost on the margins, and our current coach puts us at a disadvantage in just about every coaching matchup. Since we are in the best time of year for college basketball, try an experiment: watch how many times over the next few weeks a team runs a great play to get an open shot to tie or win a game. Then try and remember all the close games we played and whether Moser ever came up with a play to free up a player for a crucial shot.

As bad as this season was, the only thing standing between us and an even more embarrassing record is the fact that we played in one of the weaker tournaments available in November. Nebraska and Ole Miss are two of the worst P5 teams around, and Seton Hall was never in legit contention for a tournament bid. If we had played in a decent tournament, we would have likely ended the season 13-19 rather than the glorious 15-17 we produced.

 

[opsooner]

Ken Pom is a tool that was designed to be a predictive measure of how teams will perform game to game. We don’t need to look at predictive tools to see how OU performed in 2013 or 2006 or 2023. You know why? Those seasons have already been played to their completion. To the extent the data suggest that we should have won more games this season than we did, or that we were closer to the 06 or 13 teams than some might expect, have you considered that maybe the reason we didn’t, in fact, win more games is because we were poorly coached and couldn’t stop puking all over ourselves in close games? Close games are won and lost on the margins, and our current coach puts us at a disadvantage in just about every coaching matchup. Since we are in the best time of year for college basketball, try an experiment: watch how many times over the next few weeks a team runs a great play to get an open shot to tie or win a game. Then try and remember all the close games we played and whether Moser ever came up with a play to free up a player for a crucial shot.

As bad as this season was, the only thing standing between us and an even more embarrassing record is the fact that we played in one of the weaker tournaments available in November. Nebraska and Ole Miss are two of the worst P5 teams around, and Seton Hall was never in legit contention for a tournament bid. If we had played in a decent tournament, we would have likely ended the season 13-19 rather than the glorious 15-17 we produced.

Well said and exactly how I feel about this season. I am not a soothsayer. I personally like our coach. I even like some (not a lot) of his coaching decisions. I hope he turns it around and I will be very impressed if he does and will say so. I don’t see it happening and I hope I am wrong.

I do get frustrated with people telling me that we aren’t all that bad and it’s OK that we are last in the conference, nowhere close to the tournament, and that it’s also OK that Okie light and TCU and several others are doing much better than we are.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Soonerinkc]

Well said and exactly how I feel about this season. I am not a soothsayer. I personally like our coach. I even like some (not a lot) of his coaching decisions. I hope he turns it around and I will be very impressed if he does and will say so. I don’t see it happening and I hope I am wrong.

I do get frustrated with people telling me that we aren’t all that bad and it’s OK that we are last in the conference, nowhere close to the tournament, and that it’s also OK that Okie light and TCU and several others are doing much better than we are.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Exactly

 

[Abe]

Getting frustrated is normal when you’re at the bottom. But get used to it. Unless MP gets the NIL funds it is where we will stay. I know for the last 2 portal years we have been unable to compete for the players many of you would like because we were outbid for key talent. Football is first with only crumbs left over for basketball. Competition for top players is off the charts. Some of the OU nils have pushed to change that but they get push back that the funds could be used to get another 5* player for football. I believe we will get some improvement so we can compete in the middle of the conference but not much more.