Last Night and why I worry about PM

[TINY]

None of those coaches had the portal to turn to.

The portal also giveth and taketh away. And none of them had NiL to deal with either. The portal is more likely to be a net negative to programs with weaker NiL.

 

[TEvans4Three]

The portal also giveth and taketh away. And none of them had NiL to deal with either. The portal is more likely to be a net negative to programs with weaker NiL.

This.

 

[BoulderSooner]

What coach would want to go to a program where they fire people after 1-2 years? If it's a good coach, they have options, and they'll take the job with stability.

Tony Bennett went 15-16 and 16-15 his first two years at UVA. Jay Wright didn't win 20 games or make the NCAAs until year 4. Scott Drew didn't reach double-digit wins until season 4. Kelvin Sampson averaged 10 wins a year his first 3 years at WSU. He was considered an automatic 20 win guy at OU, but after doing it in year 1, he failed to do so in years 2 and 3. Bruce Pearl didn't win 20 games or finish top 10 in SEC until season 4. Rick Barnes won 15 and 16 wins in his first two years. Izzo won 16 and 17 games in years 1 and 2.

The list can continue on and on, but it's so common I'm bored. Yes, there are some people who have success right away, which is the goal, but that's not what you should be banking on. You don't know what you have in a coach until years 3-5.

then there are guys like shaka .. that fail at a good job (texas) but are still very good coaches and show it at the next stop

 

[SoonerDutch]

I want to be very clear. OU should absolutely fire moser and move on. I Think he should be fired today. I don’t think we have to wait any longer to give him time. We know enough right now to make a decision and it should be to fire him.

We won’t fire him because we can’t afford to pay the buyout. That’s what is preventing him from being fired. That and the apathy from OU admin about the program.

On another note, everyone in the Big12 has passed us by in everything. The facilities, coaches, talented players, and fan support. We are dead last partly because our investment in the program is dead last. We are reaping what we’ve sown.

The last paragraph is the far bigger issue IMO. To me the biggest issue isn’t late game coaching (which isn’t great by any means) but roster construction. Maybe Moser is particularly bad at evaluation but think it’s more so the lack of a better NIL infrastructure.

 

[skyvue]

The last paragraph is the far bigger issue IMO. To me the biggest issue isn’t late game coaching (which isn’t great by any means) but roster construction. Maybe Moser is particularly bad at evaluation but think it’s more so the lack of a better NIL infrastructure.

I'm not yet convinced that our NIL situation is so dire. In the story that was shared, Moser related that he'd heard some tales of big NIL payouts, but then there have always been payouts for top-tier talent--that's nothing new. Those payments were just under the table before. Moser said nothing specific about OU losing players because of it.

The women's gymnastics coach seemed to suggest that she's lost a couple of prospects to NIL (not that it seems to have hurt that program's success any), but Joe C. seemed very positive about things are progressing with NIL--and let's face it, there's only so much he's allowed to do. It's not up to OU to address NIL--not directly, anyway. It's up to boosters to do so.

I don't pretend to have any inside info about NIL, but I've heard as many reports about OU doing just fine in NIL as negative ones, and the negative ones seem to come from fans on boards like this one, with little to substantiate them. Some fans (perhaps especially hoops fans) seem inclined to assume the worst and present those assumptions as facts.

 

[SoonerDutch]

I'm not yet convinced that our NIL situation is so dire. In the story that was shared, Moser related that he'd heard some tales of big NIL payouts, but then there have always been payouts for top-tier talent--that's nothing new. Those payments were just under the table before. Moser said nothing specific about OU losing players because of it.

The women's gymnastics coach seemed to suggest that she's lost a couple of prospects to NIL (not that it seems to have hurt that program's success any), but Joe C. seemed very positive about things are progressing with NIL--and let's face it, there's only so much he's allowed to do. It's not up to OU to address NIL--not directly, anyway. It's up to boosters to do so.

I don't pretend to have any inside info about NIL, but I've heard as many reports about OU doing just fine in NIL as negative ones, and the negative ones seem to come from fans on boards like this one, with little to substantiate them. Some fans (perhaps especially hoops fans) seem inclined to assume the worst and present those assumptions as facts.

I would only blame boosters up to a point because although OU is making progress on the NIL front, the broader AD has clearly been risk adverse since the Bomar incident. I think the infrastructure is improving but as an example it took a substantial amount of time for them to get an approved centralized collective put together (including shuttering a non-approved predecessor for apparently being too close to an AD trademark).

Sure, the broader AD cannot get directly involved with payments but they can be cooperative with the broader booster community and that’s not been the case since 2006.

 

[mict085]

The last paragraph is the far bigger issue IMO. To me the biggest issue isn’t late game coaching (which isn’t great by any means) but roster construction. Maybe Moser is particularly bad at evaluation but think it’s more so the lack of a better NIL infrastructure.

I think it goes beyond NIL. It’s not just about the investment, it’s about the stewardship of the program and being smart with what you do invest. Look at what osu is doing with their facilities. They’re being smarter and doing a better job at facilities development. Look at all of their athletic facilities and tell me where OU is doing better, besides football. Now, they’re building an athletic village and continuing upgrades. Meanwhile, OU throws $10 million at a dying arena that needs to be replaced. That’s putting lipstick on a pig while all of our rivals in our geographic region are doing better and being smarter about spending their money.

OU leadership is failing in their stewardship of the basketball program. And baseball, but that’s another argument. They’re trying to make up some ground now after years of neglect, but we have fallen way behind. If osu, ksu, Arkansas, and every school in texas can get it right, why can’t OU get it right?

 

[BoulderSooner]

but as an example it took a substantial amount of time for them to get an approved centralized collective put together (including shuttering a non-approved predecessor for apparently being too close to an AD trademark).
.

https://1oklahoma.com/

is alive and kicking

 

[Eielson]

Without COVID, a conservative estimate would put us right around a 20-win average

20 wins was the most Lon had in a season during his final half-decade, so it would take some really creative math to make that the average. Props to you for trying.

And nice that you selectively use the 5-year cutoff

This post is pure gold. Complaining about the unfairness of utilizing a 5-year sample size while attempting to say a 2-year sample size is fair. Can't make this up.

 

[WichitaSooner]

20 wins was the most Lon had in a season during his final half-decade, so it would take some really creative math to make that the average. Props to you for trying.



This post is pure gold. Complaining about the unfairness of utilizing a 5-year sample size while attempting to say a 2-year sample size is fair. Can't make this up.

If we had won half of the games that were canceled by covid, we would have averaged 19.5 in his last four seasons. Half is a conservative estimate because most the games that were canceled two years ago were in the easiest part of the noncon.

As for Moser’s sample size, has he been our coach longer than two years? Which sample size would you prefer I use for him at OU? I could extrapolate by noting that his win total this season decreased by four from last season. Should we pencil him in for 11 next year? Or should be include all 20 years of his career? Maybe we should even toss in the year he wasn’t the coach at Illinois State but you want to credit him for.

As for Lon, I wasn’t the one who chose a sample size smaller than his entire career. I included all 10 years. You chose the cutoff so you could eliminate his best years and include how one bad season.

 

[SoonerDutch]

https://1oklahoma.com/

is alive and kicking

Thanks for correcting me here, but there was an initial issue with it being set-up correct?

 

[opsooner]

I am a stats nerd and I love advanced metrics.....especially in baseball (Go Redbirds!) because you have such a large sample size to mine the data. I think advanced metrics like Kenpom (which is the best IMO) paints a decent picture of "who you are".

Having said that, I will use another baseball reference. I am also a "Nolan Ryan" type of guy. My eyes tell me things that stats can't tell me. Nolan wasn't a big fan of advanced metrics....he would rather go watch a pitcher and determine if he has "it" based upon the flow of his mechanics, velocity, and command. Thus in basketball, we can see how well (or not well) we perform in certain aspects or sequences within games....and make real-time judgements. For example, how do we execute coming out of a timeout? What is the play or how do we execute in late moments? Do the players have a fundamental understanding of where they need to be and what they need to do? Have we constructed a roster that best fits the system that is being implemented? These are primarily coaching objectives that are either being met or not being met. This is where PM must get better and my concern is that it's not going to get better based upon the limited sample size we have seen thus far. Hopefully he proves me wrong.

Who would argue with Nolan Ryan? We saw what happened when Robin Ventura tried.

The funny thing is I was in the big data and analytics business for the past 20 years. I early-retired just a few weeks ago. My time doing so has made me very concerned about the misuse of data. It is a valuable asset but it can be equally misused and I have seen it happen many times. Data science is not science.

Since you raised baseball, I once taught a technical class at MLB in Manhattan. They used our software for arbitration, but for the owners and against the players. They kept every stat imaginable to try to lower their payroll.


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[WichitaSooner]

Who would argue with Nolan Ryan? We saw what happened when Robin Ventura tried.

The funny thing is I was in the big data and analytics business for the past 20 years. I early-retired just a few weeks ago. My time doing so has made me very concerned about the misuse of data. It is a valuable asset but it can be equally misused and I have seen it happen many times. Data science is not science.

Since you raised baseball, I once taught a technical class at MLB in Manhattan. They used our software for arbitration, but for the owners and against the players. They kept every stat imaginable to try to lower their payroll.


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That’s a very cool story about your work with MLB. That’s the one sport I love more than college hoops. No surprise they tried to use the data to suppress salaries. The arbitration process is definitely a contentious one that can cause bad will between the sides.

 

[skyvue]

Since you raised baseball, I once taught a technical class at MLB in Manhattan.

I spent 10 years working as an editorial producer at MLB.com--did you teach the class at the MLB offices in the Chelsea Market at 15th and Ninth Avenue, by any chance?

 

[BoulderSooner]

Thanks for correcting me here, but there was an initial issue with it being set-up correct?

OU has an issue with every thing if they could they would stop any one from using "the sooner state" without their permission

 

[opsooner]

I spent 10 years working as an editorial producer at MLB.com--did you teach the class at the MLB offices in the Chelsea Market at 15th and Ninth Avenue, by any chance?

It was about 15 years ago so can’t recall address but it wasn’t 9th Ave. I remember I could see Chrysler Building nearby from the room we used. I’m thinking this building was around 3rd Ave or Lexington but not sure.

The group I worked with was associated with the website and app but were not directly tied to them and were responsible for all the stat collection, storage, and analysis. I remember telling them that I liked their website and app but they said an associated group was responsible for it. I asked for and received some stationary from them. I thought it was pretty cool having MLB note pads. It definitely was a good conversation point for others when they saw it.


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[Dr Sleep]

Ken Pom is a tool that was designed to be a predictive measure of how teams will perform game to game. We don’t need to look at predictive tools to see how OU performed in 2013 or 2006 or 2023. You know why? Those seasons have already been played to their completion. To the extent the data suggest that we should have won more games this season than we did, or that we were closer to the 06 or 13 teams than some might expect, have you considered that maybe the reason we didn’t, in fact, win more games is because we were poorly coached and couldn’t stop puking all over ourselves in close games? Close games are won and lost on the margins, and our current coach puts us at a disadvantage in just about every coaching matchup. Since we are in the best time of year for college basketball, try an experiment: watch how many times over the next few weeks a team runs a great play to get an open shot to tie or win a game. Then try and remember all the close games we played and whether Moser ever came up with a play to free up a player for a crucial shot.

As bad as this season was, the only thing standing between us and an even more embarrassing record is the fact that we played in one of the weaker tournaments available in November. Nebraska and Ole Miss are two of the worst P5 teams around, and Seton Hall was never in legit contention for a tournament bid. If we had played in a decent tournament, we would have likely ended the season 13-19 rather than the glorious 15-17 we produced.

I think the Ken Pom is a great measure of team at the end of the season, ranking them against all other teams that year. It includes the whole body of work for the season, maximum data points.

 

[stormspencer]

Who would argue with Nolan Ryan? We saw what happened when Robin Ventura tried.

The funny thing is I was in the big data and analytics business for the past 20 years. I early-retired just a few weeks ago. My time doing so has made me very concerned about the misuse of data. It is a valuable asset but it can be equally misused and I have seen it happen many times. Data science is not science.

Since you raised baseball, I once taught a technical class at MLB in Manhattan. They used our software for arbitration, but for the owners and against the players. They kept every stat imaginable to try to lower their payroll.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That would have been a fun gig. I think I missed my calling. And yes, stats can be manipulated....just look at Covid. Oops....I said the c-word

 

[TEvans4Three]

Who would argue with Nolan Ryan? We saw what happened when Robin Ventura tried.

The funny thing is I was in the big data and analytics business for the past 20 years. I early-retired just a few weeks ago. My time doing so has made me very concerned about the misuse of data. It is a valuable asset but it can be equally misused and I have seen it happen many times. Data science is not science.

Since you raised baseball, I once taught a technical class at MLB in Manhattan. They used our software for arbitration, but for the owners and against the players. They kept every stat imaginable to try to lower their payroll.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Props. It is what I currently do for a living -- Business Intelligence/Datascientist.

 

[vbdad]

I think it goes beyond NIL. It’s not just about the investment, it’s about the stewardship of the program and being smart with what you do invest. Look at what osu is doing with their facilities. They’re being smarter and doing a better job at facilities development. Look at all of their athletic facilities and tell me where OU is doing better, besides football. Now, they’re building an athletic village and continuing upgrades. Meanwhile, OU throws $10 million at a dying arena that needs to be replaced. That’s putting lipstick on a pig while all of our rivals in our geographic region are doing better and being smarter about spending their money.

OU leadership is failing in their stewardship of the basketball program. And baseball, but that’s another argument. They’re trying to make up some ground now after years of neglect, but we have fallen way behind. If osu, ksu, Arkansas, and every school in texas can get it right, why can’t OU get it right?

Nothing more true than why waste 10 million on the LNC!