Last Night and why I worry about PM

Abe said:
Getting frustrated is normal when you’re at the bottom. But get used to it. Unless MP gets the NIL funds it is where we will stay. I know for the last 2 portal years we have been unable to compete for the players many of you would like because we were outbid for key talent. Football is first with only crumbs left over for basketball. Competition for top players is off the charts. Some of the OU nils have pushed to change that but they get push back that the funds could be used to get another 5* player for football. I believe we will get some improvement so we can compete in the middle of the conference but not much more.
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Yep, many don’t want to hear it but the biggest problem is the lack of investment in the program imo. Most of the other programs in the conference moved past us in terms of investment(now NIL), and we are seeing the results on the court now. This issue was an anchor on Lon his last 5 years and now moser his first 2. It will be the same for any other coach unless they can buy the talent and build a new arena themselves.
 
Abe said:
Getting frustrated is normal when you’re at the bottom. But get used to it. Unless MP gets the NIL funds it is where we will stay. I know for the last 2 portal years we have been unable to compete for the players many of you would like because we were outbid for key talent. Football is first with only crumbs left over for basketball. Competition for top players is off the charts. Some of the OU nils have pushed to change that but they get push back that the funds could be used to get another 5* player for football. I believe we will get some improvement so we can compete in the middle of the conference but not much more.
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Can you tell us where you get your info regarding our NIL failures? Also, who is doing the "push back" when the NIL groups want to use funds for basketball?
 
opsooner said:
I do get frustrated with people telling me that we aren’t all that bad and it’s OK that we are last in the conference, nowhere close to the tournament,
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the idea that OU is "nowhere close" is simply not true ..
 
OUSKINS said:
If you don’t want Moser fired, I 100% understand that and I actually feel the same way. I don’t think two years is enough.

But if you have ANY confidence that he’s going to do well at OU, then I would genuinely like to know what you’ve seen in his two years here that he’s about to turn this program into a big winner. I don’t see it at all. I very much hope I’m wrong- I like him personally. I believe he’s working as hard as he can and pouring himself into the job. And I also believe he’s a smart basketball coach. But I am not convinced he’s the right match for OU on a variety of levels.

This was a really, really bad year. If you are spinning it any other way, you are blinded by something. If last year and this year were flipped that would have been more acceptable to me- we would have shown improvement as opposed to regression. The fact that year 2 was worse than year 1 is very troubling to me.

I think he deserves at least one more year.

I also think we are likely sitting here this time next year perhaps coming off even a worse season than this one— in which case I imagine we’d be moving on. Hope I’m wrong. Rooting for him.
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100% agree with all of this. Love his energy and passion, thought he would be a great match and I want it to work, but I don't believe it will and I don't have any real hope. That's what is sad. Outside of his HS recruiting, I can't think of any success he has really had. I guess beating Alabama too.
 
BoulderSooner said:
the idea that OU is "nowhere close" is simply not true ..
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What do you possibly mean by this? Unless the tourney expanded by about 16 teams this year, we wouldn't have been in. When you aren't even close to appearing on the "NEXT four out" lists, that isn't close.
 
WichitaSooner said:
What do you possibly mean by this? Unless the tourney expanded by about 16 teams this year, we wouldn't have been in. When you aren't even close to appearing on the "NEXT four out" lists, that isn't close.
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OU isn't 10-20 or 5 and 25 .. it is a few small results from being 18-14 and that would be IN this season ..

OU is also .. 286th in the country in Luck ..
 
random note that has nothing to do with this conservation ..

per the most recent ESPN.com mock draft OU has played 6 of the top 7 prospects in college basketball this season ..

3 Miller bama
7 Smith Ark
8 Whitmore Nova
9 George Baylor
10 Black Ark
11 Dick KU
 
BoulderSooner said:
OU isn't 10-20 or 5 and 25 .. it is a few small results from being 18-14 and that would be IN this season ..

OU is also .. 286th in the country in Luck ..
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A "few" results is pretty significant in a 32-game season. This isn't MLB where a few games is a small fraction. If the committee were to release their rankings of all teams, I bet we would miss the at large cut by probably 20 spots. That is a massive miss.
 
WichitaSooner said:
It really is interesting how there is this consensus out there in college sports that you automatically have to give coaches three or four years unless there is some off the court issue. Look at a couple of the schools that made moves today. Did Cal really think Fox was going to get things going a couple years ago? Or Georgetown and Ewing? There are plenty more examples. If a coach inherits NCAA sanctions or a program that hasn’t made the tournament in years, maybe it's appropriate to give him at least three years. But even then, I feel like you can tell whether a guy can really coach. You might lose games, but you look like a cohesive, well-coached, disciplined team. If you don’t see those things for two years, why wait and suffer through more pathetic seasons?
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I want to be very clear. OU should absolutely fire moser and move on. I Think he should be fired today. I don’t think we have to wait any longer to give him time. We know enough right now to make a decision and it should be to fire him.

We won’t fire him because we can’t afford to pay the buyout. That’s what is preventing him from being fired. That and the apathy from OU admin about the program.

On another note, everyone in the Big12 has passed us by in everything. The facilities, coaches, talented players, and fan support. We are dead last partly because our investment in the program is dead last. We are reaping what we’ve sown.
 
From my understanding of NET, KENPOM, etc... we are somewhat insulated from a low rating by our strength of schedule correct? In other words, we're given the benefit of the doubt that we're better than teams in the 100s and 200s because we didn't get the chance to lose to any low ranked teams after mid December. In fact, I believe in some metrics your team rating can fall when you beat a really bad team because it degrades SOS. If so, it's hard to compare ratings between years when SOS varies. The data provided in a previous post with ratings and SOS suggests that this is a contributing factor.

Regardless, my concern is not level of team as much as direction. I could see signs of improvement with FB in some areas this year. I just didn't see that with basketball much this year. Uzan, Oweh, and Cortes showed growth individually, but .most young players do, and there's no guarantee that we keep any of them. As for the team, I didn't see much improvement in shot selection, blocking out, reducing turnovers, etc as the year went on.

I understand the "give it time" perspective, and generally agree, but I have no confidence that another year and millions of $ with PM is a good investment for OU hoops. I hope I'm wrong, because I think we're going to find out.
 
Last edited:
Soonerb98 said:
From my understanding of NET, KENPOM, etc... we are somewhat insulated from a low rating by our strength of schedule correct? In other words, we're given the benefit of the doubt that we're better than teams in the 100s and 200s because we didn't get the chance to lose to any low ranked teams after mid December. In fact, I believe in some metrics your team rating can fall when you beat a really bad team because it degrades SOS. If so, it's hard to compare ratings between years when SOS varies. The data provided in a previous post with ratings and SOS suggests that this is a contributing factor.

Regardless, my concern is not level of team as much as direction. I could see signs of improvement with FB in some areas this year. I just didn't see that with basketball much this year. Uzan, Oweh, and Cortes showed growth individually, but .most young players do, and there's no guarantee that we keep any of them. As for the team, I didn't see much improvement in shot selection, blocking out, reducing turnovers, etc as the year went on.

I understand the "give it time" perspective, and generally agree, but I have no confidence that another year and millions of $ with PM is a good investment for OU hoops. I hope I'm wrong, because I think we're going to find our.
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no OU is where it is because of its wins ..

and lack of bad losses ... if it didn't have the Q1 wins it does it would be much lower in every metric
 
BoulderSooner said:
no OU is where it is because of its wins ..

and lack of bad losses ... if it didn't have the Q1 wins it does it would be much lower in every metric
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Agreed, but when you don't have any opportunities for bad losses, then your rating can be inflated was my point.
 
opsooner said:
Well said and exactly how I feel about this season. I am not a soothsayer. I personally like our coach. I even like some (not a lot) of his coaching decisions. I hope he turns it around and I will be very impressed if he does and will say so. I don’t see it happening and I hope I am wrong.

I do get frustrated with people telling me that we aren’t all that bad and it’s OK that we are last in the conference, nowhere close to the tournament, and that it’s also OK that Okie light and TCU and several others are doing much better than we are.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I am a stats nerd and I love advanced metrics.....especially in baseball (Go Redbirds!) because you have such a large sample size to mine the data. I think advanced metrics like Kenpom (which is the best IMO) paints a decent picture of "who you are".

Having said that, I will use another baseball reference. I am also a "Nolan Ryan" type of guy. My eyes tell me things that stats can't tell me. Nolan wasn't a big fan of advanced metrics....he would rather go watch a pitcher and determine if he has "it" based upon the flow of his mechanics, velocity, and command. Thus in basketball, we can see how well (or not well) we perform in certain aspects or sequences within games....and make real-time judgements. For example, how do we execute coming out of a timeout? What is the play or how do we execute in late moments? Do the players have a fundamental understanding of where they need to be and what they need to do? Have we constructed a roster that best fits the system that is being implemented? These are primarily coaching objectives that are either being met or not being met. This is where PM must get better and my concern is that it's not going to get better based upon the limited sample size we have seen thus far. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
 
WichitaSooner said:
It really is interesting how there is this consensus out there in college sports that you automatically have to give coaches three or four years unless there is some off the court issue.
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What coach would want to go to a program where they fire people after 1-2 years? If it's a good coach, they have options, and they'll take the job with stability.

Tony Bennett went 15-16 and 16-15 his first two years at UVA. Jay Wright didn't win 20 games or make the NCAAs until year 4. Scott Drew didn't reach double-digit wins until season 4. Kelvin Sampson averaged 10 wins a year his first 3 years at WSU. He was considered an automatic 20 win guy at OU, but after doing it in year 1, he failed to do so in years 2 and 3. Bruce Pearl didn't win 20 games or finish top 10 in SEC until season 4. Rick Barnes won 15 and 16 wins in his first two years. Izzo won 16 and 17 games in years 1 and 2.

The list can continue on and on, but it's so common I'm bored. Yes, there are some people who have success right away, which is the goal, but that's not what you should be banking on. You don't know what you have in a coach until years 3-5.
 
Eielson said:
What coach would want to go to a program where they fire people after 1-2 years? If it's a good coach, they have options, and they'll take the job with stability.

Tony Bennett went 15-16 and 16-15 his first two years at UVA. Jay Wright didn't win 20 games or make the NCAAs until year 4. Scott Drew didn't reach double-digit wins until season 4. Kelvin Sampson averaged 10 wins a year his first 3 years at WSU. He was considered an automatic 20 win guy at OU, but after doing it in year 1, he failed to do so in years 2 and 3. Bruce Pearl didn't win 20 games or finish top 10 in SEC until season 4. Rick Barnes won 15 and 16 wins in his first two years. Izzo won 16 and 17 games in years 1 and 2.

The list can continue on and on, but it's so common I'm bored. Yes, there are some people who have success right away, which is the goal, but that's not what you should be banking on. You don't know what you have in a coach until years 3-5.
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If you overcome your boredom, let us know how many of those guys took over at a place that had made the tourney 8 of the previous 10 seasons.
 
WichitaSooner said:
If you overcome your boredom, let us know how many of those guys took over at a place that had made the tourney 8 of the previous 10 seasons.
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I'm sure there are several that averaged 16.8 wins a game for the previous 5 years. Moser is averaging 16 wins a season, so a 0.8 win drop doesn't seem unheard of. You clearly have internet access, so feel free to look it up yourself.

I'll start with Tom Izzo. Took over for Jud Heathcote, who had been to the NCAA tourney 5 of the last 6 years and averaged 21 wins a season. Izzo missed the NCAA tourney his first two years.
 
Eielson said:
I'm sure there are several that averaged 16.8 wins a game for the previous 5 years. Moser is averaging 16 wins a season, so a 0.8 win drop doesn't seem unheard of. You clearly have internet access, so feel free to look it up yourself.

I'll start with Tom Izzo. Took over for Jud Heathcote, who had been to the NCAA tourney 5 of the last 6 years and averaged 21 wins a season. Izzo missed the NCAA tourney his first two years.
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I'm not the one making your point, so I'll leave the research to you. And nice that you selectively use the 5-year cutoff just so you can include the only truly bad year Lon had, and you ignore the fact that the average is also skewed by us playing at least 10 fewer games than we would have due to COVID. Without COVID, a conservative estimate would put us right around a 20-win average for Lon's last four years. And even with the awful 2017 season, his overall numbers at OU averaged out to well over 20 wins.
 
None of those coaches had the portal to turn to.
 
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