MBB Transfer Portal Thread: Moser Year 4

[WichitaSooner]

This is actually some good discussion, albeit minus both sides taking shots at one another. (Yes, both sides)

So here are some datapoints to help with the bet.

Using my scoring system, here are the scores for the starting lineups of every SEC team (will need to verify I have all players right, but this was done prior to the end of the transfer portal window, so I may be off):

	Team	Starting Lineup Score Avg
1​	Auburn	60.2​
2​	Arkansas	58.5​
3​	Texas	57.9​
4​	Kentucky	57.7​
5​	Oklahoma	57.2​
6​	Ole Miss	56.8​
7​	Florida	56.4​
8​	Vanderbilt	56.3​
9​	Mississippi St	55.3​
10​	Alabama	54.8​
11​	Missouri	54.0​
12​	Tennessee	53.8​
13​	Texas A&M	53.3​
14​	South Carolina	52.4​
15​	LSU	51.1​
16​	Georgia	43.5​

Goodine, Miles, Moore, Godwin, and Jones for us...again, Uzan and Oweh played pretty meh based on their scores last year. I think fit matters more, but we downgraded in athleticism and not addressing Godwin's replacement body is/was annoying.

Here are the KenPom finishing scores over the last 4 years (sorted by average over 4 v. SEC teams):

Team	2024​	2023​	2022​	2021​	average KP
Tennessee	5​	6​	9​	28​	12​
Alabama	14​	4​	28​	9​	13.75​
Texas	25​	5​	15​	26​	17.75​
Kentucky	23​	27​	6​	49​	26.25​
Auburn	4​	32​	12​	60​	27​
Arkansas	108​	22​	18​	18​	41.5​
Oklahoma	46​	54​	30​	39​	42.25​
Florida	26​	74​	59​	41​	50​
Mississippi St.	34​	53​	49​	67​	50.75​
Texas A&M	35​	33​	33​	137​	59.5​
LSU	95​	151​	21​	24​	72.75​
Mississippi	86​	122​	108​	51​	91.75​
Missouri	145​	57​	137​	47​	96.5​
Vanderbilt	183​	81​	64​	104​	108​
South Carolina 6	54​	221​	99​	124​	124.5​
Georgia	84​	154​	219​	95​	138​

Keep in mind, OU had a harder schedule than most of the SEC teams as well. I think saying OU finished bottom of the SEC is quite a stretch. Considering that the worst year we had, we would have been 9th in the SEC (2023).

SEC teams to finish 100+ in KenPom the last 4 years...

2024 - 3
2023 - 4
2022 - 3
2021 - 3

Since 1997, OU has only finished lower than 75th in KenPom 3 times. 2010-2012 the transition from Capel-Capel to Kruger.

Teams that finished lower than 75th in the SEC in the last 4 years...

2024 - 6
2023 - 5 (one at 74)
2022 - 4
2021 - 4

I am not saying that OU is a better team than last year. I am citing that I think it is unlikely, given our history and roster that we have a worse finish/outcome than 2023 where we finished 15-17 and 54th in KenPom.

If you say bottom 4, I think you are just stealing whatever from @WichitaSooner . I fair bet would be top half v. bottom half. Then at least both sides are sweating it more.

I mean, I would love to bet top half/bottom half. It feels like that would be stealing money, but if any of the homers are actually willing to place that bet, sign me up!

 

[BoulderSooner]

I mean, I would love to bet top half/bottom half. It feels like that would be stealing money, but if any of the homers are actually willing to place that bet, sign me up!

shocking that you keep changing the target ..

 

[TEvans4Three]

I mean, I would love to bet top half/bottom half. It feels like that would be stealing money, but if any of the homers are actually willing to place that bet, sign me up!

shocking that you keep changing the target ..

Lol, I know he was just responding to my post about what I think a fair bet for both sides would be... TE4T-Sportsbook line so to speak.

But, based on his initial responses and conversation with CoachTalk, I think a fair Oklahomahoops board line would be Wichita taking the 16-13th finish spots. CoachTalk taking the 12th+. Think of it like a sportsbook juice with Wichita taking a bigger +450 odds to win that home run ball.

Gentleman's wager: Loser has to put the other person's name in their signature that says "***** is the smartest member/genius on this board" until the start of the following season.

 

[NorthCarolinaSooner]

I have no idea what the football example is that you’re citing. I don’t doubt you, but have no clue how it’s relevant to this discussion. Yes, there are hacks in every profession. But none of the articles I have posted have been written by guys like that. And even you acknowledge that guys do know quite a bit about their own beat, so an SEC writer clearly has a pretty good feel for how the teams in the conference stack up against each other. It’s also worth noting that we almost always came in near the bottom of the preseason projections in the Big 12 the past three seasons in most of these publications, and I’d say that proved accurate.

I would not be shocked if we finished in the bottom 4 of the SEC this year. I would also not be shocked if we finish in the top 10. I would, however, be happily thrilled if we finished in the top 5 (and would be shocked).

My point with the article you posted is that very few of the SEC writers I read are very familiar with OU or Texas, either one. In football it is even worse. I've seen multiple stories written by SEC beat writers that reek of poor knowledge or poor effort researching either program but particularly OU and I don't think the majority of writers spend the time OR effort to study the programs outside of their area as much as you think they do.

I don't think anyone in the SEC will have high expectations for OU basketball. Heck, their expectations for OU football are pretty low.

I think you have a right to your expectations about OU this coming season though.

I'm curious to see if we feel recruiting effects of being in the SEC in other sports besides football early on.

 

[CoachTalk]

I’ll tell you what, how about this: I’ll bet we finish bottom four in the league. That puts us in the bottom quarter of the league. You win if we finish anywhere in the top 12. You should still like those odds if you really believe our incoming players are as good as you say. Only reason I hesitate to bet we will finish bottom two is because there are a couple other teams that are also coming off awful seasons, and unlike the Big 12, I’m not quite as familiar with their coaches and newcomers.

Lol, I know he was just responding to my post about what I think a fair bet for both sides would be... TE4T-Sportsbook line so to speak.

But, based on his initial responses and conversation with CoachTalk, I think a fair Oklahomahoops board line would be Wichita taking the 16-13th finish spots. CoachTalk taking the 12th+. Think of it like a sportsbook juice with Wichita taking a bigger +450 odds to win that home run ball.

Gentleman's wager: Loser has to put the other person's name in their signature that says "***** is the smarter than ********" until the start of the following season.

You in for this bet? I’m giving you 13-14 since you moved the target a little

 

[BCSooners]

Gentleman's wager: Loser has to put the other person's name in their signature that says "***** is the smartest member/genius on this board" until the start of the following season.

Nice Brooklyn 99 reference.

 

[TINY]

Now there are some that are exceptional and very thorough but stop with the idea that they all are super knowledgeable about teams all across the country. MOST simply are guys who know quite a bit about their area but have a very regional bias.

And none of them work for the athletic anymore.

 

[WichitaSooner]

And none of them work for the athletic anymore.

Sooner Illustrated got them all.

 

[NorthCarolinaSooner]

Sooner Illustrated got them all.

This actually made me chuckle

 

[WichitaSooner]

This actually made me chuckle

Thanks. I just honestly don’t get his repeated snark at The Athletic. Who does he think is better? Maybe he and Sky can start their own sports website with writing that meets their standards. The Athletic has great writers. They’ve cut back on certain beats and the constant ads on their podcasts annoy me (especially if you’re a paying subscriber), but the writing is very good.

 

[TINY]

Sooner Illustrated got them all.

When have I ever said Sooners illustrated is the gold standard of basketball writing? You constantly put words in people’s mouths.

You brought an article published by a stripped down rag that ou is likely to finish 2nd to last in sec, something you seemingly agree with based on your posting history. Then when asked to put a wager on it, you waffle and move the goal posts to bottom half of the conference.

 

[WichitaSooner]

When have I ever said Sooners illustrated is the gold standard of basketball writing? You constantly put words in people’s mouths.

You brought an article published by a stripped down rag that ou is likely to finish 2nd to last in sec, something you seemingly agree with based on your posting history. Then when asked to put a wager on it, you waffle and move the goal posts to bottom half of the conference.

I never moved the goal posts. Coach proposed the initial bet, I asked if he would be willing to make the bet the bottom quarter of the conference. And I am happy to place that bet -- I would prefer it to have real stakes rather than just a signature line on this board. I probably should ask for odds, since Coach can win the bet if we finish in any of 12 spots, but we can hash out the details later.

And I notice that you can't/won't identify any sources better than The Athletic. I have also cited to ESPN and CBS writers. Plus, I have cited advanced analytic cites lie Bart Torvik --do the analytic cites "not know our players?"

 

[NorthCarolinaSooner]

In football you can pick half or more of the AP poll voters....look at their poll votes ea h week and see that they don't watch alot of football outside of their beat or their region and/or have a major regional bias. Basketball writers are often similar.

We have some obvious question marks this year so we'll see how it plays out. Anyone doubting us is fair.

 

[WichitaSooner]

In football you can pick half or more of the AP poll voters....look at their poll votes ea h week and see that they don't watch alot of football outside of their beat or their region and/or have a major regional bias. Basketball writers are often similar.

We have some obvious question marks this year so we'll see how it plays out. Anyone doubting us is fair.

I agree with this. But there is a difference between a typical poll voter (there are dozens of them, many of whom just write for a local paper, cover multiple sports, and don't follow college football or basketball on a national basis), and writers who cover a specific sport on a national level. If Joe Schmoe from the Tuscaloosa Times predicted we would finish 15th, I wouldn't post it or give it any more credence than Brody Lusk projecting us to have 12 lottery picks with Forsythe leading the nation in scoring and assists and changing the sport as we know it.

When prominent national writers and websites post predictions/projections, I think it is relevant to bring them up on this board, especially when it is in the middle of the summer and nothing else is going in. The only reason it gets so much play is because a couple posters (NOT you, I want to make that clear) insist on questioning the knowledge of every single writer. If someone wants to go out on a limb and say that they disagree and think we will be far better, that's totally fine. But to constantly argue that every writer or analyst I have cited is lazy or doesn't know what they are talking about is silly. And what is especially funny is that this board gets so hyped any time we crack the top 25 in December. I guess people are only willing to put stock in the "uninformed" writers if those writers have good things to say about OU.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Just to re-iterate, based on KenPom rankings...OU would have finished 8th in the SEC last year (9th if you include Texas).

2021 - 6th
2022 - 8th
2023 - 9th
2024 - 9th

Will you go by KenPom finish or record finish? 2 very different bets.


Also, here are the updated odds to win the SEC for next year that I found at BetOnline:

Rk	Team	Odds
1​	Alabama	800​
2​	Arkansas	2500​
3​	Auburn	3300​
4​	Kentucky	3300​
5​	Tennessee	4000​
6​	Florida	5000​
7​	Texas	5000​
8​	Texas A$M	6600​
9​	Miss St	8000​
10​	Ole Miss	10000​
11​	Missouri	10000​
12​	Georgia	12000​
13​	Oklahoma	12500​
14​	LSU	12500​
15​	South Carolina	15000​
16​	Vanderbilt	40000​

Way Too Early SEC Power Rankings - (OU 13th)

 

[WichitaSooner]

Just to re-iterate, based on KenPom rankings...OU would have finished 8th in the SEC last year (9th if you include Texas).

2021 - 6th
2022 - 8th
2023 - 9th
2024 - 9th

Will you go by KenPom finish or record finish? 2 very different bets.


Also, here are the updated odds to win the SEC for next year that I found at BetOnline:

Rk	Team	Odds
1​	Alabama	800​
2​	Arkansas	2500​
3​	Auburn	3300​
4​	Kentucky	3300​
5​	Tennessee	4000​
6​	Florida	5000​
7​	Texas	5000​
8​	Texas A$M	6600​
9​	Miss St	8000​
10​	Ole Miss	10000​
11​	Missouri	10000​
12​	Georgia	12000​
13​	Oklahoma	12500​
14​	LSU	12500​
15​	South Carolina	15000​
16​	Vanderbilt	40000​

Way Too Early SEC Power Rankings - (OU 13th)

I don’t think we would have finished bottom four last season. We were significantly more talented last season. We probably would have slotted in somewhere between 8-12.

I think for purposes of the bet, conference standings makes the most sense. KenPom might be a better gauge of a team overall, but it’s also still somewhat subjective based on what he chooses to factor in. Standings are black and white, even though it sucks it can’t be a true double round robin because there are so many teams. I guess that leaves open the question of how to handle ties. If we finish tied for 12th, for instance, who wins the bet?

 

[TEvans4Three]

Also wanted to look at OU the year before and their projected starters based on my ratings system:

Starters would be the actual output of the starters for that year.
Projected would be the guys coming in from portal or that years previous stats.

2020-21:
Starters for that year - 56.0 (Reaves, Harmon, Manek, Gibson, Kuath)
Projected portal lineup - 53.7 (Gibson, Groves, Goldwire, Hill, Harkless)

2021-22:
Starters for that year - 56.0 (Gibson, Groves, Goldwire, Hill, Harkless)
Projected portal lineup - 52.0 (Sherfield, Groves, Hill, Uzan, Groves)

2022-23:
Starters for that year - 52.3 (Sherfield, Groves, Hill, Uzan, Groves)
Projected portal lineup - 47.3 (McCollum, Moore, Uzan, Oweh, Godwin)

2023-24:
Starters for that year - 56.1 (McCollum, Moore, Uzan, Soares, Moore)
Projected portal lineup - 55.3 (Miles, Jones, Elvis, Moore, Godwin)

+/- from year to year:

Year	Projected	Results	plus-minus
2021-22	53.7​	56​	2.3​
2022-23	52​	52.3​	0.3​
2023-24	47.3​	56.1​	8.8​
2024-25	55.3​	?	?

So, essentially, Moser has managed to get his value out of his projected starters. The exception being Soares in for Oweh which led to a bigger increase in last years results. It would have been 54.2 AVG with Oweh instead of Soares leading to a 6.9 positive showing.

This is the highest projected output of any incoming projected starting lineup so far, per my scoring system...which I find interesting or very flawed.

 

[steverocks35]

Also wanted to look at OU the year before and their projected starters based on my ratings system:

Starters would be the actual output of the starters for that year.
Projected would be the guys coming in from portal or that years previous stats.

2020-21:
Starters for that year - 56.0 (Reaves, Harmon, Manek, Gibson, Kuath)
Projected portal lineup - 53.7 (Gibson, Groves, Goldwire, Hill, Harkless)

2021-22:
Starters for that year - 56.0 (Gibson, Groves, Goldwire, Hill, Harkless)
Projected portal lineup - 52.0 (Sherfield, Groves, Hill, Uzan, Groves)

2022-23:
Starters for that year - 52.3 (Sherfield, Groves, Hill, Uzan, Groves)
Projected portal lineup - 47.3 (McCollum, Moore, Uzan, Oweh, Godwin)

2023-24:
Starters for that year - 56.1 (McCollum, Moore, Uzan, Soares, Moore)
Projected portal lineup - 55.3 (Miles, Jones, Elvis, Moore, Godwin)

+/- from year to year:

Year	Projected	Results	plus-minus
2021-22	53.7​	56​	2.3​
2022-23	52​	52.3​	0.3​
2023-24	47.3​	56.1​	8.8​
2024-25	55.3​	?	?

So, essentially, Moser has managed to get his value out of his projected starters. The exception being Soares in for Oweh which led to a bigger increase in last years results. It would have been 54.2 AVG with Oweh instead of Soares leading to a 6.9 positive showing.

This is the highest projected output of any incoming projected starting lineup so far, per my scoring system...which I find interesting or very flawed.

One problem is you can't play 5 guys the whole game. Depth looks like it might be an issue for us this season.

 

[WichitaSooner]

One problem is you can't play 5 guys the whole game. Depth looks like it might be an issue for us this season.

I also think the difference I notice from past seasons is that so many of our transfers are coming from low or mid majors. Last year, Moore, Waldo, and Hugley were guys with power conference experience. JM and Dart were the two guys stepping up multiple levels. We saw how much a guy like JM struggled once the competition amped up in conference play. He looked like a world beater against bad teams but was a below average Big 12 starting guard. And he came in with more fanfare and higher ratings than this group.

 

[TEvans4Three]

One problem is you can't play 5 guys the whole game. Depth looks like it might be an issue for us this season.

Very much agree. Which is why I think myself, and others, are not thrilled with our 5 situation. Going to play a LOT of smallball.

I also think the difference I notice from past seasons is that so many of our transfers are coming from low or mid majors. Last year, Moore, Waldo, and Hugley were guys with power conference experience. JM and Dart were the two guys stepping up multiple levels. We saw how much a guy like JM struggled once the competition amped up in conference play. He looked like a world beater against bad teams but was a below average Big 12 starting guard. And he came in with more fanfare and higher ratings than this group.

Partially agree with this? I say that bc in the stats you see guys like Javian, Chargois improving, but at the same time...No real improvement from Sherfield/Marvin, and Bamisile/Groves/Groves all underperformed. I would argue Tanner was put in an impossible situation with no outside shooting and collapsing defense. So not his fault at all.

A reminder, the transfers in mostly improved from before to their last year at OU under Moser. But as Wichita said, our lower level guys were hit or miss.




Edit to add:


Green = P5
Yellow = not P5