OU-VCU Statistical Plus/Minus Review

[DSMok1]

OU vs. VCU Statistical Plus/Minus

Another weak game from OU this time... and this time, Willie really was the problem. WW and Tiny destroyed OU this game... the rest of the team played adequately.

Oh.... Larry Sanders is good.

(Boxscore)
OU Statistical +/-

Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Pledger, Steven		13.2	27	8.9
Wright, Ryan		12.5	21	6.5
Davis, Cade		9.8	16	3.9
Crocker, Tony		0.6	36	0.5
Franklin, T.J.		-10.6	1	-0.3
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-7.9	6	-1.2
Willis, Ray		-24.7	3	-1.8
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	-2.4	31	-1.9
Gallon, Tiny		-13.0	27	-8.8
Warren, Willie		-15.6	32	-12.5

VCU Statistical +/-

Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Sanders, Larry		23.0	21	12.1
Gavin, Jay		9.7	26	6.3
Rodriguez, Joey		5.3	28	3.7
Rozzell, Brandon	1.5	14	0.5
Gwynn, T		-1.4	27	-1.0
Burgess, Bradford	-1.3	31	-1.0
Nixon, Ed		-3.0	26	-1.9
Pishchalnikov, K	-11.6	15	-4.3
Theus, Darius		-26.5	12	-7.9

At first glance, it didn't look like Pledger had a good game--but look closer. Despite shooting 2 for 10, he still got to the line and totaled 11 points. Not bad. And the rest of his game again looked like a veteran--he grabbed an offensive rebound, handed out 3 assists to no turnovers, and snagged 3 steals. That was a solid game. The same may be said for Ryan Wright--a solid game. He didn't turn the ball over and didn't miss a shot. He also got a block and 2 steals. Cade got 3 steals in less than 20 minutes. And Crocker played pretty well; his only flaw was 0 assists in 36 minutes.

On the other end... well, Gallon shot okay and grabbed a bunch of rebounds. However, he turned the ball over 4 times in 27 minutes, and only managed 1 block and no steals--that indicates he wasn't playing good defense. And Willie Warren basically shot OU out of the game by himself--in fact, he contributed the losing margin pretty much by himself. 6 turnovers, and no blocks or steals.... ouch!!

For VCU, Sanders played very well. He scored efficiently, handed out 4 (!) assists to no turnovers, and blocked 3 shots. He was the best player on the floor.

It was an ugly game for OU, but quite a few of the players played decently. Willie didn't, and Tiny wasn't great. But we know those players can do better and we can expect them to do better. That, at least, gives hope for the future of the team.

Here are the totals through 3 games, with the minutes per game listed:
OU Statistical +/- Three Game Totals

Name			SPM	Min	Contribution
Steven Pledger		7.8	20.7	12.1
Willie Warren		2.7	32.3	6.5
Tony Crocker		1.4	30.0	3.3
Cade Davis		2.5	17.0	3.2
Ryan Wright		0.5	21.7	0.9
Tiny Gallon		0.4	25.3	0.8
Kyle Hardrick		-5.6	0.7	-0.3
T.J. Franklin		-7.7	1.0	-0.6
Orlando Allen		-10.3	2.0	-1.5
Ray Willis		-6.0	4.3	-2.0
Beau Gerber		-58.7	0.7	-2.9
Andrew Fitzgerald	-3.0	13.3	-3.0
Tommy Mason-Griffin	-2.4	31.0	-5.5

Pledger is the only player to be in positive SPM all 3 games. He has played solidly! TMG has been very consistent (no very bad games) but he has recorded a lot of turnovers and NO steals through 3 games.

Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) is a method of estimating each player's impact from the box score statistics. SPM is listed in points above the average player playing per 40 minutes--so if that player was replaced by an average player for 40 minutes, SPM is the difference in the final margin. The total of all player's contributions will sum to the actual scoring margin (each team's total will equal half of the overall margin). The original method was outlined by Dan Rosenbaum at 82games.com; recently additional factors were added by Neil Paine at Basketball-Reference.com. I previously compiled the complete 2008-2009 NCAA numbers on this forum.​

 

[BoulderSooner]

the system showed its flaw this game .. in no way does 15 and 10 hurt a team

 

[campbest]

Willie didn't even get off the bus.

 

[DSMok1]

the system showed its flaw this game .. in no way does 15 and 10 hurt a team

I beg to differ. Looking at totals means very little. You must look at both rates and the implications of those rates on total contribution.

Here is what Tiny Gallon scored, compared to Ryan Wright, by category:

[B]Player			Wright, Ryan	Gallon, Tiny[/B]
Start Value		-14.2		-14.2
Age			0.5		0.3
Height			0.3		0.3
Points			4.3		12.5
Shot Attempts		-4.7		-16.7
3Pt Attempts		0.0		0.0
FT Attempts		0.0		4.5
Assists			0.3		0.0
Offensive Rebounds	1.1		2.6
Defensive Rebounds	0.0		0.0
Turnovers		0.0		-10.2
Steals			8.9		0.0
Blocks			1.7		1.3
Personal Fouls		2.2		0.6
Versatility Index	6.8		0.0
Minutes Played		2.4		3.1
Team Adjustment		2.8		2.8

[B]TOTAL SPM		12.5		-13.0[/B]

Things to note: defensive rebounds mean ~nothing. Why? Because somebody on the team has to get quite a few, so they are not very good in estimating overall actual contributions. Offensive rebounds mean more... but defensive stats mean a ton in terms of actual contribution implied. Remember, this is not a measure of contribution directly from the box score numbers, but of contribution implied by the stats. Read the end notes of the first post for more information.

So basically--Tiny got quite a few points and rebounds. Ryan was very efficient on scoring, and racked up some defensive stats. Statistical Plus/Minus estimates what those stats imply in terms of actual overall contribution to the team effort. Ryan Wright's assist, steals, blocks, and fouls indicate a player who was hustling and putting in good effort on both ends of the floor--doing the little things. Gallon scored and got rebounds--both important, but he didn't do many of the little things. And he turned the ball over a ton. This system values those little things as indicative of good overall contribution to the team in this game. Again, read the end notes for more information.

 

[ByronHoustonsSweatyPalms]

Is this for people that can't read a box score?

 

[DSMok1]

Is this for people that can't read a box score?

It's an estimate of a player's actual contributions that are implied by the box score. A way to estimate Adjusted Plus/Minus from box score data.

Box Scores only tell part of the story; adjusted plus/minus tells another side. Since it is impossible to calculate APM in college, this regression estimates the story APM would tell.

 

[BigTime]

Tiny grabbed 6 offensive boards! He also went 5 of 7 from the line, and 5 of 8 from the field (all but one were "good" shots), and had a key block. His only downfall was 4 TOs with 0 assists.

I thought he played fine.

 

[thebigabd]

Tiny grabbed 6 offensive boards! He also went 5 of 7 from the line, and 5 of 8 from the field (all but one were "good" shots), and had a key block. His only downfall was 4 TOs with 0 assists.

I thought he played fine.

His defense is bad. Everything else is great.

 

[BigTime]

His defense is bad.

Yes, it needs to improve, but unlike you, I don't think he is the "worst big defender in OU history". His long arms make it tough for opponents to shoot over. He will get it with time.

 

[thebigabd]

Yes, it needs to improve, but unlike you, I don't think he is the "worst big defender in OU history". His long arms make it tough for opponents to shoot over. He will get it with time.

I bet he shapens up on defense pretty quick.... He can move his feet, has long arms, and is athletic. He just needs to figure it out.

 

[BigTime]

I bet he shapens up on defense pretty quick.... He can move his feet, has long arms, and is athletic. He just needs to figure it out.

Tiny has a good attitude, and he wants to be great. He will improve.

 

[DSMok1]

Tiny grabbed 6 offensive boards! He also went 5 of 7 from the line, and 5 of 8 from the field (all but one were "good" shots), and had a key block. His only downfall was 4 TOs with 0 assists.

I thought he played fine.

He was decent on offense, but his passing wasn't great and he had some knucklehead turnovers. His defense was not very good at all; that's why he scored so low here.

 

[BigTime]

He was decent on offense, but his passing wasn't great and he had some knucklehead turnovers. His defense was not very good at all; that's why he scored so low here.

Perimeter defense in the first half was much worse than anything Tiny did. Sanders hit 3 tough shots over him (all contested). I have the game tape (watched it three times) on my computer if you want to review it. Tiny played fairly well on offense, was really good on the boards, and had a sub par defensive game. Overall, not a bad game.

 

[DSMok1]

Perimeter defense in the first half was much worse than anything Tiny did. Sanders hit 3 tough shots over him (all contested). I have the game tape (watched it three times) on my computer if you want to review it. Tiny played fairly well on offense, was really good on the boards, and had a sub par defensive game. Overall, not a bad game.

You're probably right... the numbers only give an indication of how well a player played; there aren't stats available that tell the whole story. These stats should at least provoke some thought over who played well and who didn't; they mostly point out that scoring and rebounding only tell a small part of the story.

 

[BigTime]

You're probably right... the numbers only give an indication of how well a player played; there aren't stats available that tell the whole story. These stats should at least provoke some thought over who played well and who didn't; they mostly point out that scoring and rebounding only tell a small part of the story.

Oh yeah, I agree completely. I just had to defend Tiny a bit this time.

I really like your stats, and appreciate you putting them together. You won't get any arguments from me regarding Tiny's defense. It has to get better.

 

[gracefor24]

Shooting 2-10 is bad any way you look at it. I know there are other ways to contribute but for that to be your most highly rated player just shows how bad of a game it was for OU.

I never get into these crazy statistical things. They have a place in evaluation but can't replace actual eyes on the game.

 

[ByronHoustonsSweatyPalms]

Shooting 2-10 is bad any way you look at it. I know there are other ways to contribute but for that to be your most highly rated player just shows how bad of a game it was for OU.

I never get into these crazy statistical things. They have a place in evaluation but can't replace actual eyes on the game.

Two thumbs up!:clap

 

[soonergrad09]

Shooting 2-10 is bad any way you look at it. I know there are other ways to contribute but for that to be your most highly rated player just shows how bad of a game it was for OU.

I never get into these crazy statistical things. They have a place in evaluation but can't replace actual eyes on the game.

You gotta look at the rest of the box score though. 2-10 is bad, no doubt, but what made him grade well in this analysis were his 3 steals, 3 assists, 0 turnovers while the rest of his team had 15, and his 5-6 at the line.

 

[BanjoCharley]

For this to make sense you have to figure who got the rebound on missed shots. Eight missed shots when your own team gets the rebound aren't near as devastating as eight missed shots when your opposition gets the rebound. A missed shot leading to an opponent rebound is a turnover.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Things to note: defensive rebounds mean ~nothing. .

no coaches on any level agree with this statment