Porter MF Moser!!

I’ve said it a long time now, but bottom of schedule takes on way too much emphasis in SOS rankings. Our wins over Arizona, Michigan & Louisville should carry much more weight than our 8 Q4 games.
Don’t bring common sense this early. It sets the bar too high
 
I’ve said it a long time now, but bottom of schedule takes on way too much emphasis in SOS rankings. Our wins over Arizona, Michigan & Louisville should carry much more weight than our 8 Q4 games.
You can think however you want but unless you’re on the committee, what matters is how those folks think. No one has said the good wins don’t matter, by the way. But lots of teams have good wins, which is why the entire schedule matters.
 
Devil's advocate here, we should still be mixing in some Q2-Q3 games in more than a whole packet of Q4 record stuffers.

You can add teams like CSUN, Norfolk St, Temple, San Francisco, St. Bonaventure to easily raise your noncon and give you a better test than fluffers.
 
Devil's advocate here, we should still be mixing in some Q2-Q3 games in more than a whole packet of Q4 record stuffers.

You can add teams like CSUN, Norfolk St, Temple, San Francisco, St. Bonaventure to easily raise your noncon and give you a better test than fluffers.
Don’t disagree. But let’s be honest. A win against a Q3 is essentially the same as a Q4.
 
Don’t disagree. But let’s be honest. A win against a Q3 is essentially the same as a Q4.
100%, so we should put more Q3 games in to up our NONCON and SOS. It can only help

For example:

Right now our average KP team rank for our NonCon games is 202.

If we change all those 300+ teams and up them by 100 in rank, then our average KP rank opponent becomes 149.

That changes 7 games from the 300s into the 200s and one 250 into the 150 range. Our competition is roughly the same, but our SOS gets a huge boost and we get only one game to go from a Q4 to a Q3. (That is how bad our noncon is)
 
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Don’t disagree. But let’s be honest. A win against a Q3 is essentially the same as a Q4.
Unless you’re prepared to say that Oklahoma State is the same as Alcorn State, this is simply not true. OSU is a terrible team by P4 standards. But they are still capable of beating you if they play well and/or you have an off night. They will likely end up winning a few Big 12 games. Teams at the bottom of Q4 would go winless in a power conference and even if they play above their heads for a good portion of a game, they don’t pose a real threat. So teams definitely should get dinged for playing too many games against that kind of opponent.
 
You can think however you want but unless you’re on the committee, what matters is how those folks think. No one has said the good wins don’t matter, by the way. But lots of teams have good wins, which is why the entire schedule matters.
According to college net we have 7 quad 4 wins. There are 12 teams rated above us with 7 or more q 4 wins. 11 above us that have 6 q-4 wins Only 13 teams above us with more q-1 wins. I would like to play a tougher schedule, but looks like we are in pretty good shape comparison wise.

Our issue is we started to low, expectations, and we did not blow out enough of the quad 4 teams. Also road wins.

I mean vcu is rated 2 spots higher than ou with no quad 1 wins and 9 quad 4. What they have over us is 2 more road wins. So maybe ou should play quad 4 on road?

Additional. Texas is 31. With 3-5 quad 1. And 8-0 q4. They beat us so not saying we should be ahead, but it’s not showing that quad 1 and quad 4 mean a whole lot in the calculation.
 
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I’ve said it a long time now, but bottom of schedule takes on way too much emphasis in SOS rankings. Our wins over Arizona, Michigan & Louisville should carry much more weight than our 8 Q4 games.
I agree, but it does factor in, and that's why Wichita and I harp on our scheduling issues so much because it makes the team's job more difficult.

Mike Shepherd and Lon cracked this code. They figured out how to formulate a schedule based on the committee's parameters that made our path to the Tournament easier. It was their scheduling that allowed teams with losing conference records to get into the bracket: 2018 (10-seed@8-11), 2019 (9-seed@7-12).

When you schedule the dregs of society it torpedoes your margin for error. So now, when you blow an 18-point lead at home to eATMe or lay the yearly turd against Texas, it REALLY hurts. Win either of those games and we're 3-3 in the league and nobody's too concerned. Nobody's forcing us to schedule to Alcorn State's of the world. We're choosing to do that, and it's hurting our metrics. Look how far we've already fallen in the NET.
 
I agree, but it does factor in, and that's why Wichita and I harp on our scheduling issues so much because it makes the team's job more difficult.

Mike Shepherd and Lon cracked this code. They figured out how to formulate a schedule based on the committee's parameters that made our path to the Tournament easier. It was their scheduling that allowed teams with losing conference records to get into the bracket: 2018 (10-seed@8-11), 2019 (9-seed@7-12).

When you schedule the dregs of society it torpedoes your margin for error. So now, when you blow an 18-point lead at home to eATMe or lay the yearly turd against Texas, it REALLY hurts. Win either of those games and we're 3-3 in the league and nobody's too concerned. Nobody's forcing us to schedule to Alcorn State's of the world. We're choosing to do that, and it's hurting our metrics. Look how far we've already fallen in the NET.
So 23 teams above us have 6 or more q-4 wins, so half the teams. We have 7. So quad wins appears not the issue. SOS, maybe . But really a difference in quad 4 win of number 270 verses 320? Style points and road wins seem to be the issue.
 
Here is the KenPom breakdown:

1738076983876.png

If we were to say, have an EV NCSOS of 0.00. Putting us right around 150th, instead of 332nd?

We would be ranked 21st. We are losing -6.09 in NetRtg bc of our NonCon. (This is assuming we would have the same wins as with the current schedule)

So, yes, we need to get our NonCon up in the future to look better in the metrics. Only 4 teams ahead of us have a worse NonCon.

The BEST thing we could do for our NET rating in the near term...is play better defense. If we can get our defense up to the 50s or 40s, we are ranked in the 30s, easily.
 
So 23 teams above us have 6 or more q-4 wins, so half the teams. We have 7. So quad wins appears not the issue. SOS, maybe . But really a difference in quad 4 win of number 270 verses 320? Style points and road wins seem to be the issue.
It's a mix of everything. I mentioned last week that during a recent interview on ESPN, Lunardi said that if you choose to schedule a lot of Q-4 games, you really need to win them by 30+. And playing road games also helps -- not only is a road win more valuable, but it also gets you better prepared for conference. I don't think we would have won at Bama if we had played a true road game in noncon, but maybe we lose by 10 instead of 30, and that helps. And maybe we would have had a chance to win at Georgia. The biggest frustration I have is that all of these factors have been known for over a decade. The committee makes minor tweaks every few years, like adding in wins above bubble this year. But SOS, road games, and the penalty for playing the absolute worst Q-4 teams have been factors for a long time.
 
S
100%, so we should put more Q3 games in to up our NONCON and SOS. It can only help

For example:

Right now our average KP team rank for our NonCon games is 202.

If we change all those 300+ teams and up them by 100 in rank, then our average KP rank opponent becomes 149.

That changes 7 games from the 300s into the 200s and one 250 into the 150 range. Our competition is roughly the same, but our SOS gets a huge boost and we get only one game to go from a Q4 to a Q3. (That is how bad our noncon is)
Send this to pm. He doesn't understand how to schedule correctly. Proof is in the pudding as the expert on last team out
 
It's a mix of everything. I mentioned last week that during a recent interview on ESPN, Lunardi said that if you choose to schedule a lot of Q-4 games, you really need to win them by 30+. And playing road games also helps -- not only is a road win more valuable, but it also gets you better prepared for conference. I don't think we would have won at Bama if we had played a true road game in noncon, but maybe we lose by 10 instead of 30, and that helps. And maybe we would have had a chance to win at Georgia. The biggest frustration I have is that all of these factors have been known for over a decade. The committee makes minor tweaks every few years, like adding in wins above bubble this year. But SOS, road games, and the penalty for playing the absolute worst Q-4 teams have been factors for a long time.
Portered
 
I agree, but it does factor in, and that's why Wichita and I harp on our scheduling issues so much because it makes the team's job more difficult.

Mike Shepherd and Lon cracked this code. They figured out how to formulate a schedule based on the committee's parameters that made our path to the Tournament easier. It was their scheduling that allowed teams with losing conference records to get into the bracket: 2018 (10-seed@8-11), 2019 (9-seed@7-12).

When you schedule the dregs of society it torpedoes your margin for error. So now, when you blow an 18-point lead at home to eATMe or lay the yearly turd against Texas, it REALLY hurts. Win either of those games and we're 3-3 in the league and nobody's too concerned. Nobody's forcing us to schedule to Alcorn State's of the world. We're choosing to do that, and it's hurting our metrics. Look how far we've already fallen in the NET.
I don’t understand how it’s so hard for some people to understand.
 
The 2019-2020 season is a great example.

OU loses three noncon games. @Wichita St, @Creighton and neutral against Stanford. They only went .500 in conference so it’s not like they were world beaters. Yet, with 19 wins they were still solidly in before COVID (thanks Austin Reaves). I’m not going to go into the analytics if that year but if I had to guess, OU’s nonconference SOS gave them a lot of wiggle room.

Fast forward to 2023-2024. OU wins 20 games and still isnt in. Kruger knew how to schedule non conference and PM doesn’t. It bit PM last year, and still could this year.
 
I’m not going to go into the analytics
BUT I WILL!!!! Muahahaha

So in 2020 we were a 10-seed*.

1738082403183.png 1738082418072.png
1738082460249.png


Not as great on offense, pretty solid on defense. BUT LOOK AT THAT SOS.
30th NCSOS, giving us a +5.86 NET adv.



UH OH, I have devil's advocate news here, are you ready???

NETRtg back in 2020 was +15.70, which would put them ranked 47th in 2025.
OU is currently at a NetRtg of +17.06, which would put them ranked 32nd in 2020.

Analytics are fun.
 
Sidenote to that:

We had worse losses in 2020 than we did in 2024.
We just had some better wins in 2020 than we did in 2024.

SOS was the BIG difference between those 2 seasons. (2020 also benefitted from college basketball being less top-heavy than the last few years as well)
 
BUT I WILL!!!! Muahahaha

So in 2020 we were a 10-seed*.

View attachment 2224 View attachment 2225
View attachment 2226


Not as great on offense, pretty solid on defense. BUT LOOK AT THAT SOS.
30th NCSOS, giving us a +5.86 NET adv.



UH OH, I have devil's advocate news here, are you ready???

NETRtg back in 2020 was +15.70, which would put them ranked 47th in 2025.
OU is currently at a NetRtg of +17.06, which would put them ranked 32nd in 2020.

Analytics are fun.
Only one team in the 300s and two in the 200s. Learn, Porter, learn!!
 
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