PhilipVU94
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- Joined
- Jan 28, 2025
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This topic usually ends up running into unclear semantics. You are certainly correct for one understanding of "similar profiles." Toy example:Nope, they don't. If there are two teams with otherwise similar profiles, and one played a much better noncon, that team will likely get the nod. Think of a season as 31 data points. Team A and Team B are largely indistinguishable in their conference results, but team A played a better noncon. Team A is more likely to make it, not because the noncon games "count more," but because they are data points that separate the teams.
Team A: Lost to Duke by 20. Beat Iowa State by 10. Went 9-9 in SEC.
Final record: 10-10. SoS: Brutal
Team B: Lost to Canisius by 20. Beat Mississippi Valley A&M by 10. Went 9-9 on exactly the same conference schedule. (Critical to consider in-conference SoS now that the SEC is very unbalanced in the three home-and-homes.)
Final record: 10-10. SoS: Slightly less brutal.
I wouldn't call those similar profiles though. Anyway your main point that they're not supposed to treat OOC SoS differently from conference is correct but seems hard for the media and fans to get their heads around. I'm already steeling myself for Vanderbilt to get in at 7-11 and hear four days of "Why can an SEC team get in at 4 games below .500?" as though that means anything. First World problems.
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