Porter MF Moser!!

Agree with you Dagman, the Texas and Texas A&M losses might be the worst ones we suffer this year. If we don't make the NCAA tourney, I think we will be blaming those losses more than any others.

Looks pretty tough to see us winning another 5-6 games, but Fears seems to be slowly regaining his non-con form, and Wague and Goodine now playing a bigger role, maybe there is a path. The way we shoot the ball sometimes, we will have at least a punchers chance in every game. Like at Arky, we will just need to figure out how to win some games somehow.

I haven't seen Vandy play this year. for anyone that has, what do they have and how do you see them compared to some of the teams we have played? I saw where they beat Kentucky Saturday, so they have to be pretty good. Another huge frontline?
 
AnotherSoonerInTX said:
I grew up in Pott County. Went to OBU, still have family in Shawnee. Dale has always been a power, but they don't normally send guys to the SEC. I'm always going to root for Dayton.
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Went to OBU and have lived my whole life in Shawnee.

Probably know some of the same people.
 
cowboysooner said:
Agree with you Dagman, the Texas and Texas A&M losses might be the worst ones we suffer this year. If we don't make the NCAA tourney, I think we will be blaming those losses more than any others.

Looks pretty tough to see us winning another 5-6 games, but Fears seems to be slowly regaining his non-con form, and Wague and Goodine now playing a bigger role, maybe there is a path. The way we shoot the ball sometimes, we will have at least a punchers chance in every game. Like at Arky, we will just need to figure out how to win some games somehow.

I haven't seen Vandy play this year. for anyone that has, what do they have and how do you see them compared to some of the teams we have played? I saw where they beat Kentucky Saturday, so they have to be pretty good. Another huge frontline?
Click to expand...
They aren’t big, but rebound better than we do (low bar, for sure). Their best player by far is a guard, Edwards, a transfer from UNT. They don’t turn the ball over even though they play a much faster tempo than we do. Not a great 3-pt shooting team other than Edwards.
 
WichitaSooner said:
They aren’t big, but rebound better than we do (low bar, for sure). Their best player by far is a guard, Edwards, a transfer from UNT. They don’t turn the ball over even though they play a much faster tempo than we do. Not a great 3-pt shooting team other than Edwards.
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They aren’t a bad matchup for OU.
 
daqman said:
yeah....imagine where we'd be if we had beaten texas and a&m.
now we have to go get some wins that are unexpected. like beat tenn at home. and win some tough road games.
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I think you would see a lot less disdain for this team had we beat A$M.

16-3 with a (5-2) Q1 record and a 3-3 SEC conf record? Much different story.

Crazy how one game changes the feel of the season.
 
cowboysooner said:
Agree with you Dagman, the Texas and Texas A&M losses might be the worst ones we suffer this year. If we don't make the NCAA tourney, I think we will be blaming those losses more than any others.

Looks pretty tough to see us winning another 5-6 games, but Fears seems to be slowly regaining his non-con form, and Wague and Goodine now playing a bigger role, maybe there is a path. The way we shoot the ball sometimes, we will have at least a punchers chance in every game. Like at Arky, we will just need to figure out how to win some games somehow.

I haven't seen Vandy play this year. for anyone that has, what do they have and how do you see them compared to some of the teams we have played? I saw where they beat Kentucky Saturday, so they have to be pretty good. Another huge frontline?
Click to expand...
2 losses to 39 ranked Texas and 19 ranked Texas A$M, are not bad losses. (KP Ranks)

Sure, any loss is a bad loss, but it is not like they are 100+ ranked KP teams.

Texas also doesn't have any "bad" losses either. At least our NONCON schedule was better than theirs, lol
 
TINY said:
@aggie going to be very tough to win. Don’t expect that one to go our way. Vandy at home is a must win.
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I think we need a split there. We need to beat Mizzou and LSU at home. Then we need to win one more. That gets us to 6-12. That, plus a win in the tourney gets us to 20 wins and SHOULD get us in. But given how much SHOULD has mattered lately, I'd love to get two more...(Kentucky, Miss State, @ Texas, @ Mizzou, should all be winnable.)
 
IndySooner said:
I think we need a split there. We need to beat Mizzou and LSU at home. Then we need to win one more. That gets us to 6-12. That, plus a win in the tourney gets us to 20 wins and SHOULD get us in. But given how much SHOULD has mattered lately, I'd love to get two more...(Kentucky, Miss State, @ Texas, @ Mizzou, should all be winnable.)
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i don't think 6-12 gets OU in as much as the metrics will like OU ..
 
TEvans4Three said:
I think you would see a lot less disdain for this team had we beat A$M.

16-3 with a (5-2) Q1 record and a 3-3 SEC conf record? Much different story.

Crazy how one game changes the feel of the season.
Click to expand...
I would rank the texas loss with the A&M loss. We didn't blow a big lead, but once again--against a heated rival that has owned PM's teams--we came out flat and not ready to play. Truly inexcusable.
 
BoulderSooner said:
OU is 24 in WAB which is now part of the committee process .. (it is a Strength of Record type ranking )

www.barttorvik.com

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
www.barttorvik.com
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Yes, that is probably our most favorable metric, and it's one that I was glad they added before this season. But if our NET and KenPom numbers are even lower than last season, which is where they are trending if we finish 6-12, I don't think that one metric would be enough to save us.
 
WichitaSooner said:
Yes, that is probably our most favorable metric, and it's one that I was glad they added before this season. But if our NET and KenPom numbers are even lower than last season, which is where they are trending if we finish 6-12, I don't think that one metric would be enough to save us.
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i agree 6-12 is not going to get it done 7-11 is the bubble 8-10 i would feel very very good
 
BoulderSooner said:
i agree 6-12 is not going to get it done 7-11 is the bubble 8-10 i would feel very very good
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I agree. 7-11 gives us the same overall record as last regular season, but likely better quality wins since we actually won three good noncon games. We would likely be in slightly better position, but that first round conference tourney game would be huge (again). We will know by this weekend if we even have a shot. And 0-2 week ends things for us. 1-1 keeps us alive but still needing to pull off an unexpected win or two.
 
WichitaSooner said:
Yes, that is probably our most favorable metric, and it's one that I was glad they added before this season. But if our NET and KenPom numbers are even lower than last season, which is where they are trending if we finish 6-12, I don't think that one metric would be enough to save us.
Click to expand...

I very much agree with this assessment.

The thing is, as you point out, our noncon was so bad, that our sos will only go up. We can finish 6-12 and it won't drop as much as we think as long as we don't get blown out.

I've been tracking the kenpom for a bit, we hover around 40-45, but our defense is steadily climbing from the 103rd rank hole.

More Wague and stealing a win, could keep us top 40 and better Q1 than last year.

It is going to be close... Again.
 
Some interesting stats I dug into this morning:

1738064722796.png

SEC defenses are clearly much better are stifling out game flow. At the same time, our defense has improved almost every week since A$M. If we can keep that Def Eff around or below the 100 mark, we will have a chance in most games.

1738064859811.png

Wague has always been a high PER player, but man...he just keeps showing up on the tops of these types of lists. We need to find a way to get him moving his feet better, standing strong, and maybe not being SO aggressive that he has to foul out of necessity. Luke actually does a really good job of going straight up on defense, not fouling. (WHAT ARE THE COACHES NOT TEACHING THIS KID!!! Ugh.) If some spark comes on, and he can control his body, he could be the difference between bubble and deeper run.

1738065049251.png

Love this chart. The wavy line is the standard deviation with gamescore over time.
The circles are non-con, squares are conf games, and the green are wins, red are losses.

You see our standard deviation score is actually trending UP. So, yes, to caveat we are playing middle of the road SEC teams, but we are getting better. That is a positive. That Texas A$M score still pops out as an eyesore.

Last year, we were trending down with this chart, so I was actually a little surprised to see us with a positive trendline.

1738065319468.png

Last but not least, KenPom. Oh, what is that? We are 12th in the country in 3Pt%? That is a good key for our team if we can keep it up.
29th in 2pt%, 5th in FT% (DANGIT GODWIN), and pushing our defense out of the 100s and into 76th. Positive movement in the right way. On the flip side, those offensive rebounding numbers are baaaaaaad. It shows how we are getting abused on the inside. Block rate is low...etc. Big man problems.

KenPom.com
EvanMiya.com
BartTorvik.com
 
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