Thanks!
Porter MF Moser!!
- Thread starter CanadaSooner23
- Start date
Or hold a press conference blaming the committee
SoonerBounce13
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And this is what drives me crazy. Why are you given credit for a strong non conference SOS even if you lose the tough games but you aren't given crdit for a stong conference SOS even if you lose games?
There seems to be a double standard IMO
WichitaSooner
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You are given credit. Why do you think teams that finish 8-10 or 7-11 in elite conferences can still make the tournament? You don't see teams with losing records in the Valley make the tournament.
The committee DOES NOT DISTINGUISH between conference and nonconference. All games count the same in their eyes. If you play in a really good league, you will start with a huge advantage because you will get 18 or 20 chances to play good teams. If you schedule like Moser, you give back a good bit of that advantage by playing seven or eight bottom feeders. Again, it shrinks the margin for error, and it is totally self-inflicted. You control your noncon schedule.
TEvans4Three
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I am trippin' a bit looking back at overall NetRtgs and see how this season stands up to some previous seasons:
This will upset some people:
-We are currently having the T-4th best season NetRtg wise in the last 13 years. (still early though)
-Moser has had 3 seasons better (counting this year) ahead of Kruger when he made it to the tournament with 3 scores all below what Moser has had in the last 4 years.
-Efficiency isn't the end all be all, but it does count for something and committee decisions
-Kruger getting in the tournament in 2013, 2018, and 2020
-2013, OU had only 2 Top-25 wins and some bad losses. Yet, got in with a worse offense and defense rated than this year.
-Reality still stands, we have not made the tournament under Moser, regardless of if we were screwed or not. Those are still facts.
Just looking at stats today.
| Year | NetRtg | KP Rank | Main Tourney Postseason | Rank by NetRtg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +17.06 | 43 | N/A | 4 |
| 2024 | +15.77 | 46 | N/A | 7 |
| 2023 | +13.41 | 54 | N/A | 11 |
| 2022 | +16.48 | 30 | N/A (criminal) | 6 |
| 2021 | +17.06 | 39 | 8 seed | 4 |
| 2020 | +15.70 | 36 | 10 seed* | 8 |
| 2019 | +16.94 | 32 | 9 seed | 5 |
| 2018 | +14.16 | 48 | 10 seed | 9 |
| 2017 | +11.49 | 65 | N/A | 12 |
| 2016 | +23.78 | 10 | 2 seed | 1 |
| 2015 | +22.80 | 11 | 3 seed | 2 |
| 2014 | +17.90 | 30 | 5 seed | 3 |
| 2013 | +13.80 | 51 | 10 seed | 10 |
This will upset some people:
-We are currently having the T-4th best season NetRtg wise in the last 13 years. (still early though)
-Moser has had 3 seasons better (counting this year) ahead of Kruger when he made it to the tournament with 3 scores all below what Moser has had in the last 4 years.
-Efficiency isn't the end all be all, but it does count for something and committee decisions
-Kruger getting in the tournament in 2013, 2018, and 2020
-2013, OU had only 2 Top-25 wins and some bad losses. Yet, got in with a worse offense and defense rated than this year.
-Reality still stands, we have not made the tournament under Moser, regardless of if we were screwed or not. Those are still facts.
Just looking at stats today.
hoopsaustin
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Put this on the fridge. The 19-12 team's model needs to be copied and replicated every single year
hoopsaustin
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Wow look at that 2013 team. What on earth? Lol
SoonerBounce13
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This is not true. They clearly do. They shouldn't but they do
SoonerBounce13
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Schedule 1:
Wins over NET: 6, 12, 37, 37, 58, 62, 70, 88
Losses over Net: 1, 6, 8, 15, 19, 19, 27, 30, 30, 42, 42, 61
Best win: 6
Avg top 100 win: 46
Worst Loss: 61
Avg top 100 loss: 25
Schedule 2:
Wins over NET: 10, 10, 21, 27, 48, 53, 61, 77, 86, 86, 87, 89, 90, 90
Losses over NET: 1 ,1, 3, 3, 12, 21, 39, 43, 53, 61, 89, 90
Best win: 10
Avg top 100 win: 60
Worst Loss: 90
Avg top 100 loss: 34
Wins over NET: 6, 12, 37, 37, 58, 62, 70, 88
Losses over Net: 1, 6, 8, 15, 19, 19, 27, 30, 30, 42, 42, 61
Best win: 6
Avg top 100 win: 46
Worst Loss: 61
Avg top 100 loss: 25
Schedule 2:
Wins over NET: 10, 10, 21, 27, 48, 53, 61, 77, 86, 86, 87, 89, 90, 90
Losses over NET: 1 ,1, 3, 3, 12, 21, 39, 43, 53, 61, 89, 90
Best win: 10
Avg top 100 win: 60
Worst Loss: 90
Avg top 100 loss: 34
WichitaSooner
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Nope, they don't. If there are two teams with otherwise similar profiles, and one played a much better noncon, that team will likely get the nod. Think of a season as 31 data points. Team A and Team B are largely indistinguishable in their conference results, but team A played a better noncon. Team A is more likely to make it, not because the noncon games "count more," but because they are data points that separate the teams.
The misunderstanding of scheduling issues and selection criteria is funny. Reminds me of this Archie Miller scene from the other day: Rhode Island's Archie Miller falls for troll post questioning SEC's dominance
SoonerBounce13
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lol you just proved my point. They do distinguish between conference and non conference.
Sooner04
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Different world back then. Committee looked at things differently. We went 11-7 in the league which made us a mortal lock.
Side note: I was present for one of the worst losses of Lon's tenure that very season. We SHOULD have been 12-6 in the Big 12, but we go down to Fort Worth and lose to TCU, who was 1-16 in the Big 12 at the tip. It was horrifying. That was not long after we blew a 20-point lead in the final five minutes to lose in Austin in overtime.
That team started playing really good ball in February behind our old friend, Ro Osby. The exact opposite of the end's of Lon's tenure when we began suffering from the Faceplants of February (patent pending).
WichitaSooner
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That was the same TCU team that beat KU for their only other win, and prompted Self's famous "Topeka YMCA" line. IIRC, that was the game Buddy returned from injury, and for most of the first half, it was basically a layup line for he Frogs.
That Texas game -- M'Baye with the dunk and celebration that turned out to be premature. There was never a doubt the jumper at the end of regulation was going in for Texas.
snydrosooner
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Honest questions: Kenpom does not show quad wins on the formula. SOS is obvious. Is Ken taking quad wins into effect?
I ask cause committee last year talked about quad wins and net shows quad wins. What is more important Net rating or Kenpom? You could play only quad 2 and 3 and have a decent sos, but if committee is looking for quad 1, then that won’t work.
it also seems that when discussing on then board posters, probably me too, shift back and fourth between Kenpom sos and quad discussion. So which one is more important?
WichitaSooner
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The NET is the NCAA's own metric and is their primary sorting tool. KenPom is important, but if given the choice, I think it's more important to have a good NET.
One thing people forget, because you don't see it talked about or listed often, is that the committee further divides Q-1. They have Q-1-A for wins against the top teams, and that makes sense. A road win over Duke and a home win against the 25th ranked team in the NET are both Q-1 wins, but they obviously aren't equal, and the committee doesn't treat them the same. Which is why it would be very helpful if we could win a road game against one of the really good SEC teams, as unlikely as that may be.
TEvans4Three
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I clearly prefer KenPom over NET, bc they NET takes Quad wins from it's own ranking system into account.
KenPom tries to use full on analytics to determine teams with efficiency ratings above and below expectations while weighting the opponents accordingly.
(Both are pretty important, KP is more efficiency, NET is more quality wins defined)
See below about KenPom methodology, a good read from Ken Pomeroy himself:
See below on what the NCAA describes as their NET ranking system:
College basketball's NET rankings, explained
Here's everything you need to know about college basketball's NET ranking system.
www.ncaa.com
These stats support the beauty pageant aspect that ou has lost 2 of last 3 years. A timeline that coincided with ou being in conference purgatory. Big 12 despised ou and screwed ou teams on the court/field any way they could. The commissioner confirmed this bias several times. Ou didn’t have a voice at any of these tables and found themselves the 1st team left out numerous times (just off the top of my head):
-men’s basketball twice first team out
-10 win football team with a win over #2 Texas first team out of new years bowl games
-2022 baseball had 45 wins, big 12 tournament winners, 2nd place in conf regular season = no regional host and has to go to the powerhouse florida regional.
-no national seed for 2024 big 12 baseball conference champs w a win over #1 Tennessee. Ou was arguably given the hardest 2 seed in Duke, also.
stormspencer
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I was at the game too. TCU hit some 3s as well. I was sitting around some OU fans and there were plenty of WTF is going on here vibes? That was a tough one to swallow....ugh.
And we are learning once again that you don't schedule a bunch of sh!tty teams (300+ Kenpom) and then not beat them by 30+. It absolutely kills your metrics as TEvans has brilliantly laid out.
