Predictions for Next Year
- Thread starter Romulus
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Hard to say until we know what our PG position will be and what kind of roster turnover we might have, but if we are basing the prediction on our current roster plus the 2 signees, then I'd say a season very similar to 2016-2017 should be expected. 10-12 wins total. 5-6 conference wins maybe. No postseason.
coolm
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No grad transfer PG, under.
If we get a competent grad transfer PG we should finish with a similar record to this year, assuming reasonable levels of improvement from guys like Manek and McGusty.
WTSooner
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I'll wait to see what a) our roster is going to be, and b) what the schedule is.
That said, I am not all that optimistic about the team next year. Which really sucks, b/c Tulsa is hosting a site for the NCAA Tourney next year, and I was really, really hoping OU might be good enough to get placed there. Almost zero chance of that, and not much better of a chance to even make the tourney, based on what I know today.
That said, I am not all that optimistic about the team next year. Which really sucks, b/c Tulsa is hosting a site for the NCAA Tourney next year, and I was really, really hoping OU might be good enough to get placed there. Almost zero chance of that, and not much better of a chance to even make the tourney, based on what I know today.
Let's look at the roster for next year:
SR: Christian James (G), Ty Lazenby (G), Rashard Odomes (G), Jamuni McNeace (C), Grad Transfer ? (G)
JR: Kristian Doolittle (F), Kam McGusty (G), Jordan Shepherd (G), Matt Freeman (F)
SO: Brady Manek (F), Hannes Polla (C)
FR: Jamal Bieniemy (G), Kur Kuath (F)
So we will have 6-7 schollie G (only 1-2 that can play PG), 4 schollie F (only 1 really able to play effectively inside) and 2 schollie C (neither with a polished offensive game). This team will have to live and die from the perimeter and will have to run the court to score. The halfcourt game could kill this team both offensively and defensively.
Assuming the team finds a grad transfer PG, then after next season the team will graduate 4 guards and 1 center. The team will go from a very guard heavy team to a very guard thin team, but the team will get it's PG of the future in De'Vion Harmon, and it will have time to find pieces that better fit around Harmon.
So, next season COULD be manageable if the team can shoot effectively from the perimeter and can just run the court. Stay out of the halfcourt as much as possible. Much like this season. All that is predicated on a grad transfer PG, mind you.
The season after next will see a complete roster overhaul from graduation and possible attrition, so the program has a chance to rebuild itself. The question is will it go the slow route with freshmen, or will it go the quick route with jucos and transfers?
SR: Christian James (G), Ty Lazenby (G), Rashard Odomes (G), Jamuni McNeace (C), Grad Transfer ? (G)
JR: Kristian Doolittle (F), Kam McGusty (G), Jordan Shepherd (G), Matt Freeman (F)
SO: Brady Manek (F), Hannes Polla (C)
FR: Jamal Bieniemy (G), Kur Kuath (F)
So we will have 6-7 schollie G (only 1-2 that can play PG), 4 schollie F (only 1 really able to play effectively inside) and 2 schollie C (neither with a polished offensive game). This team will have to live and die from the perimeter and will have to run the court to score. The halfcourt game could kill this team both offensively and defensively.
Assuming the team finds a grad transfer PG, then after next season the team will graduate 4 guards and 1 center. The team will go from a very guard heavy team to a very guard thin team, but the team will get it's PG of the future in De'Vion Harmon, and it will have time to find pieces that better fit around Harmon.
So, next season COULD be manageable if the team can shoot effectively from the perimeter and can just run the court. Stay out of the halfcourt as much as possible. Much like this season. All that is predicated on a grad transfer PG, mind you.
The season after next will see a complete roster overhaul from graduation and possible attrition, so the program has a chance to rebuild itself. The question is will it go the slow route with freshmen, or will it go the quick route with jucos and transfers?
Ghost of Gar Heard
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Absolutely. I'm saying now the team makes the tournament next season.
CoachTalk
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i concur. Ill give a total after transfers and late additions.
I hope we make the tournament but I’m not seeing it. I have been so underwhelmed with the new assistants. The lack of individual improvement and inability to right the ship during a slump have been the only common denominators over the past 2 seasons. I’m expecting a .500 team depending on the schedule.
I will still cheer them on like crazy, though!
I will still cheer them on like crazy, though!
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NY Soonerfan
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Unless we get a cream of the crop grad transfer who has a tremendous impact, it's just tough to see the team finishing .500 in what will undoubtedly be the deepest conference in college basketball.
Maybe McGusty gets his mojo back and Doolittle prospers with a proper offseason, but James and Odomes are who they are at this point, so it's not likely they move forward in a dramatic way. Manek obviously has the highest ceiling and should only get better, and McNease could potentially blossom into a 14-8 kind of guy with all the added minutes he gets. I can't see Sheppard being the answer at all at PG, which means we need a grad transfer that much more. If Bieniemy comes in and can adjust and contribute, that will be a great help, but even if everyone outperforms expectations, it seems a reach for us to be a night in and night out contender in the B12.
I've always liked the tough NC schedule Lon has played on a yearly basis, and I understand you're not allowed to complain on Selection Sunday if you're left out in the cold after playing a weak NC schedule, but next year seems like the year to dial it back a little and let a team that figures to need some confidence, get on a roll early by playing weaker teams. Plus, we have the built-in edge of the Atlantis tourney, which will (likely) give us three games against high-profile teams.
I think/hope it will be a season to look forward too though, and that the team is able to jell and work together for a common goal. I would like to think all the holdovers, who got a taste of the tourney this year, know how hard they will have to work to get back there, and understand the shortcomings that caused them to struggle in the second half of this year, and commit to improving on them in the offseason. Hope springs eternal in my eyes, regardless of the odds, which are stacked against us a bit.
Maybe McGusty gets his mojo back and Doolittle prospers with a proper offseason, but James and Odomes are who they are at this point, so it's not likely they move forward in a dramatic way. Manek obviously has the highest ceiling and should only get better, and McNease could potentially blossom into a 14-8 kind of guy with all the added minutes he gets. I can't see Sheppard being the answer at all at PG, which means we need a grad transfer that much more. If Bieniemy comes in and can adjust and contribute, that will be a great help, but even if everyone outperforms expectations, it seems a reach for us to be a night in and night out contender in the B12.
I've always liked the tough NC schedule Lon has played on a yearly basis, and I understand you're not allowed to complain on Selection Sunday if you're left out in the cold after playing a weak NC schedule, but next year seems like the year to dial it back a little and let a team that figures to need some confidence, get on a roll early by playing weaker teams. Plus, we have the built-in edge of the Atlantis tourney, which will (likely) give us three games against high-profile teams.
I think/hope it will be a season to look forward too though, and that the team is able to jell and work together for a common goal. I would like to think all the holdovers, who got a taste of the tourney this year, know how hard they will have to work to get back there, and understand the shortcomings that caused them to struggle in the second half of this year, and commit to improving on them in the offseason. Hope springs eternal in my eyes, regardless of the odds, which are stacked against us a bit.
Boomer!Sooner!
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Lets see what happens, but I think we will be great. Jamuni and Doolittle really impressed me the last game(s). Doolittle was really hurt by missing that first half of the season (confidence games against cupcakes). Both of those guys have NBA bodies and think they will have really good Junior years. No one thought OSU would have tied OU this year in conference. I think we are going to surprise people next year like they did.
I'll say it right now, we easily surpass 11 wins.
Personally, I see us doing equal to this year (18 wins, 9th in the Big 12), if not better. Won't say better yet until I see who we get in transfers and schedule wise, but I'll definitely say we easily surpass 11 wins. Experience will carry us a long ways.
FWIW Jamuni already had his Junior year.
You never know. If coaches make changes and players improve on even the basics we could be competitive. It then comes down to winning close games and that is where I have doubts. We do need some additional toughness injected into the team to help with that. At this point I am selling on making the tourney but buying on improvements from 2016-17. I will be watching and hoping.
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Ghost of Gar Heard
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This is how I see it. Several guys had down years this year. They'll improve. I really feel like Odomes and James will emerge as leaders once they're seniors. Maybe McNeace as well. I think they'll get a grad transfer PG who'll run the offense relatively well. Many people have pointed to chemistry issues on this year's team. I think they'll be more cohesive and move the ball better and play better defense.
The team won't have any stars but they will have 7-8 guys who can average 8-15 PPG. I see no reason this team can't donate least as well as this year's team -- win 8 conference games and make the tournament. The possibility is also there if they really come together to win maybe 11 conference games and be a 4 or 5 seed. Remember, next year's team will be very experienced, unlike this year's and last year's. I think that will help.
