DFWHoopster
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It is not an exact science. But one of the best predictors of success in the W-L column is success on the recruiting trail. I have long held a theory that coaches who recruit well are often overrated in terms of their actual coaching ability. Dean Smith is the prime example to me- I personally was underwhelmed by him.
I watched his talent underachieve for years. You know the old joke: Who is the only guy that could hold Michael Jordan to less than 20 points? Dean Smith.
Yet the guy is revered as the ding-dong daddy of college coaches because he could recruit better than anyone in the country. Recruiting is #1, #2 and #3 in terms of importance in being a good college coach.
If you look at the RSCI rankings for the last four years in terms of getting top 100 players nationally, it tells a lot. Here is how the big 12 stacks up along with recently graduated players- I have not included the top 100 players who signed with a big 12 team and transferred (UT and KU have a bunch) or those who academically failed (Keith Clark, Karron Johnson, etc..):
Kansas
Sherron Collins (14)- Sr
Cole Aldrich (21)- Jr
Tyrel Reed (59)- Jr
Marcus Morris (63)- Soph
Markeiff Morris (67)- Soph
Travis Releford (49)- Soph
Tyshawn Taylor (73)- Soph
Jeff Withey (27)- Soph
Thomas Robinson (28)- Fr
Elijah Johnson (25)- Fr
Xavier Henry (6)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Julian Wright (6)
Mario Chalmers (8)
Brandon Rush (23)
Darrell Arthur (11)
Russell Robinson (31)
Sasha Kaun (43)
Darnell Jackson (68)
Texas
Damion James (15)- Sr
Dexter Pittman (82)- Sr
Clint Chapman (75)- Jr
Gary Johnson (25)- Jr
Jai Lucas (32)- Soph
Avery Bradley (4)- Fr
Jordan Hamilton (22)- Fr
Shawn Williams (55)- Fr
J'Covan Brown (59)- Fr
Recent Departures:
AJ Abrams (83)
Kevin Durant (2)
DJ Augustin (29)
Lamarcus Aldridge (12)
Daniel Gibson (19)
Oklahoma
Willie Warren (13)- Soph
Andrew Fitzgerald (81)- Fr
Tiny Gallon (10)- Fr
Tommy Mason-Griffin (30)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Austin Johnson (96)
Blake Griffin (16)
Longar Longar (97)
Kansas State
Dominique Sutton (81)- Jr
Wally Judge (15)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Michael Beasley (4)
Bill Walker (52)
Oklahoma State
Obi Muonelo (35)- Sr
James Anderson (33)- Jr
Roger Franklin (71)- Fr
Raymond Penn (51)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Byron Eaton (20)
Terrel Harris (66)
Jameson Curry (53)
Baylor
Tweety Carter (69)- Sr
Lace Dunn (37)- Jr
Quincy Acy (75)- Soph
Anthony Jones (40)- Soph
Cory Jefferson (92)- Fr
Nolan Dennis (41)- Fr
Recent Departure:
Kevin Rogers (55)
Texas A&M
Donald Sloan (90)- Sr
Bryan Davis (63)- Sr
Dash Harris (91)- Soph
David Loubeau (82)- Soph
Khris Middleton (99)- Fr
Recent Departure:
DeAndre Jordan (15)
Iowa State
Craig Brackins (51)- Jr
Chris Colvin (97)- Fr
Recent Departure:
Rashon Clark (94)
Missouri
No one ranked
Recent Departures:
Jason Horton (45)
Marshall Brown (47)
Kalen Grimes (63)
Texas Tech
No one ranked
Nebraska
No one ranked
Colorado
No one ranked
What conclusions do I draw?
1. Mike Anderson is one hell of a coach. He does more with less than any coach in the league. All of the top 100 departed players were Quin's recruits. But Missouri will be hard pressed to stay on the top of this league without greater recruiting success.
2. We probably overrate Self and Barnes as tacticians. The fact is those guys have had much better talent than anyone else. They should win more than any other team even when they have guys leave early. The talent level is superior.
3. Jeff Capel is very underrated based on the results achieved and the expectations would be that he will deliver even better success in the future with the caliber of recruits that he is landing.
4. The knock on Drew being a poor coach is unfair. He has had only one top 100 player go through his program (Rogers). He has achieved what you would expect with most of his talent younger and coming into prime the next 2 years.
5. Very few top notch big 12 players are absent from the above list. Of the 1st and 2nd team all big 12, only Carroll (Missouri) and Clemente (K State) were absent from the top 100 recruiting lists. The year before only Jerrells (Baylor) and Maric (Nebraska) were absent from the lists.
I watched his talent underachieve for years. You know the old joke: Who is the only guy that could hold Michael Jordan to less than 20 points? Dean Smith.
Yet the guy is revered as the ding-dong daddy of college coaches because he could recruit better than anyone in the country. Recruiting is #1, #2 and #3 in terms of importance in being a good college coach.
If you look at the RSCI rankings for the last four years in terms of getting top 100 players nationally, it tells a lot. Here is how the big 12 stacks up along with recently graduated players- I have not included the top 100 players who signed with a big 12 team and transferred (UT and KU have a bunch) or those who academically failed (Keith Clark, Karron Johnson, etc..):
Kansas
Sherron Collins (14)- Sr
Cole Aldrich (21)- Jr
Tyrel Reed (59)- Jr
Marcus Morris (63)- Soph
Markeiff Morris (67)- Soph
Travis Releford (49)- Soph
Tyshawn Taylor (73)- Soph
Jeff Withey (27)- Soph
Thomas Robinson (28)- Fr
Elijah Johnson (25)- Fr
Xavier Henry (6)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Julian Wright (6)
Mario Chalmers (8)
Brandon Rush (23)
Darrell Arthur (11)
Russell Robinson (31)
Sasha Kaun (43)
Darnell Jackson (68)
Texas
Damion James (15)- Sr
Dexter Pittman (82)- Sr
Clint Chapman (75)- Jr
Gary Johnson (25)- Jr
Jai Lucas (32)- Soph
Avery Bradley (4)- Fr
Jordan Hamilton (22)- Fr
Shawn Williams (55)- Fr
J'Covan Brown (59)- Fr
Recent Departures:
AJ Abrams (83)
Kevin Durant (2)
DJ Augustin (29)
Lamarcus Aldridge (12)
Daniel Gibson (19)
Oklahoma
Willie Warren (13)- Soph
Andrew Fitzgerald (81)- Fr
Tiny Gallon (10)- Fr
Tommy Mason-Griffin (30)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Austin Johnson (96)
Blake Griffin (16)
Longar Longar (97)
Kansas State
Dominique Sutton (81)- Jr
Wally Judge (15)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Michael Beasley (4)
Bill Walker (52)
Oklahoma State
Obi Muonelo (35)- Sr
James Anderson (33)- Jr
Roger Franklin (71)- Fr
Raymond Penn (51)- Fr
Recent Departures:
Byron Eaton (20)
Terrel Harris (66)
Jameson Curry (53)
Baylor
Tweety Carter (69)- Sr
Lace Dunn (37)- Jr
Quincy Acy (75)- Soph
Anthony Jones (40)- Soph
Cory Jefferson (92)- Fr
Nolan Dennis (41)- Fr
Recent Departure:
Kevin Rogers (55)
Texas A&M
Donald Sloan (90)- Sr
Bryan Davis (63)- Sr
Dash Harris (91)- Soph
David Loubeau (82)- Soph
Khris Middleton (99)- Fr
Recent Departure:
DeAndre Jordan (15)
Iowa State
Craig Brackins (51)- Jr
Chris Colvin (97)- Fr
Recent Departure:
Rashon Clark (94)
Missouri
No one ranked
Recent Departures:
Jason Horton (45)
Marshall Brown (47)
Kalen Grimes (63)
Texas Tech
No one ranked
Nebraska
No one ranked
Colorado
No one ranked
What conclusions do I draw?
1. Mike Anderson is one hell of a coach. He does more with less than any coach in the league. All of the top 100 departed players were Quin's recruits. But Missouri will be hard pressed to stay on the top of this league without greater recruiting success.
2. We probably overrate Self and Barnes as tacticians. The fact is those guys have had much better talent than anyone else. They should win more than any other team even when they have guys leave early. The talent level is superior.
3. Jeff Capel is very underrated based on the results achieved and the expectations would be that he will deliver even better success in the future with the caliber of recruits that he is landing.
4. The knock on Drew being a poor coach is unfair. He has had only one top 100 player go through his program (Rogers). He has achieved what you would expect with most of his talent younger and coming into prime the next 2 years.
5. Very few top notch big 12 players are absent from the above list. Of the 1st and 2nd team all big 12, only Carroll (Missouri) and Clemente (K State) were absent from the top 100 recruiting lists. The year before only Jerrells (Baylor) and Maric (Nebraska) were absent from the lists.