TEvans4Three
OUHoops 2023 Bracket Champion
- Joined
- Mar 14, 2011
- Messages
- 1,426
- Reaction score
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Per WTSooner's selection parameters (NET) Away-Neutral site games only. (wasn't sure if I should remove all the bad losses to help or not)I've said for WEEKS that I don't care about the losses.
There are no Q4 teams in the tourney, so I do I care if a team lost to them? This is a single elimination tournament. To advance/win a NC, you have to be able to beat really good teams on neutral sites. Regular season neutral site and road success is a pretty good barometer of that. FAU, and most of the bubble teams we're up against, have done better at that. And it doesn't have to be a quantity issue. More Q1 games should have given OU a chance to have more Q1 wins. We don't. Q1 winning percentage. Look at that. That is telling. So FAU has played down to their opponents some this year. They had more opportunities to do so. Same argument with OU football losing as favorites too often. When you are the favorite in literally every game you play except sometimes the RRR game, of course you are going to lose some games you were favored to win, unless you never lose.
But back to the point, FAU's neutral/away game success, against NCAA Tournament level teams, is why they belong above us.
OU's top 5 wins Away and Neutral only:
Q1 - 37 Cincy (A)
Q2 - 62 Iowa
Q1 - 71 TCU (A)
Q2 - 88 USC
Q3 - 115 Arkansas
FAUs top 5 wins Away and Neutral only:
Q1 - 4 Arizona
Q1 - 45 Texas A&M
Q2 - 60 Virginia Tech
Q2 - 68 Butler
Q2 - 79 North Texas (A)
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OU avg rank top5 wins: 74.6
FAU avg rank top5 wins: 51.2
OU avg rank A/N all wins: 82.67 (6)
FAU avg rank A/N all wins: 108.25 (12)
OU avg rank A/N all games: 51.35 (14)
FAU avg rank A/N all games: 111.53 (19)
To show I am not just a monster but definitely a complete stat-whore monster. If you slice it this in depth, yes FAU has a better avg top 5 win on ONLY away and neutral site games. However, FAU also had more opportunities in that set of 19 v 14 played. When you take the entirety, FAU has a much easier A/N site schedule by far...meaning their losses are much more apparent as well. (But in this scenario we ignore losses and/or home losses and only focus on the Arizona win, then yes, FAU is better based on that top category)
My issue with this is, picking on small subset to focus on and not the entirety of it all. Heck, I would accept they are a top offensive efficiency metric team compared to OU, bc that much is true. But to ignore beating good teams bc it is a home win, is silly. (Especially with regions and close to site games)
I will say though, that when it comes to SOS for another team, you completely ignore it/don't care. Unless it is OU, then it's is the end all be all OOC, which are all Q4 and don't matter anyway.