Softball

sweetest ou girl said:
ss, you are not showing much mathematical skill with your insistence that over ranking teams in a conference from the start has no impact on sos for those exact teams. Even a total mathematical moron knows it does.

In fact that is one of the primary points made in the book: "how to lie with statistics." you clearly need to read that book.

Or do you want to be like one of the guys running for governor, who was foolish enough to admit (as a graduation speaker believe it or not) that he was terrible at math and never could get a decent grade in high school on it, but (and i quote) it doesn't matter because i have never had to use any math since i got out of high school.
Click to expand...

lol.
 
Sweetest OU Girl said:
SS, you are not showing much mathematical skill with your insistence that over ranking teams in a conference from the start has NO impact on SOS for those exact teams. Even a total mathematical moron knows it does.

In fact that is one of the primary points made in the book: "How To Lie With Statistics." You clearly need to read that book.

Or do you want to be like one of the guys running for governor, who was foolish enough to admit (as A Graduation Speaker believe it or not) that he was terrible at math and never could get a decent grade in high school on it, but (and I quote) It doesn't matter because I have never had to use any math since I got out of high school.
Click to expand...

I am insinuating only that the SEC rankings in the RPI have been documented as valid by the success of the RPI when seeding results are compared to tournament results for the last 5 and last 10 years. The data verifies the seeding committee consistently becoming more accurate in their seeding process. This year 16 of 16 made the super-regionals and the top 8 seeds all made the WCWS not a single upset which was an aberration as 5-6 teams is closer to the norm with those unexpected teams coming from the 9-16 seedings. But the also got the 8 seeds correct in 2015. That is 2 of the last 4 years.

My disagreement with Syb is long and detailed and he constantly is changing his argument by isolating a position that is virtually irrelevant to the issue. My only stance is that the RPI system is highly effective at seeding teams in all sports for their playoffs. The past results compared to the seedings document conclusively that effectiveness. That's it.

I do have the statistical training and experience to know full well that people constantly attempt to lie with stats. But the stats don't lie if you have the knowledge to know what the numbers can really tell you and what they cannot tell you which is generally much less than most people perceive. Perhaps it is your ignorance of what is truly being said that is askew. I don't misuse the data. I know what it can really tell me.

Comparing 2009-2013 to 2014-18 WCWS participation to their seeding the RPI seedings for top 8 seeds that made the WCWS increased on average from 5.0 to 6.2/y. Seeds 9-16 decreased on average from 2.2 to 1.8/y and unseeded decreased from 0.8 to zero/y. The last unranked team to make the WCWS was 2012 while from 2008-2012 6 unranked teams made the WCWS. P.S. those participation results are not lying when they confirm the seeding accuracy of the committee.

Those improvements in seeding success should tell us all that the committee is becoming more effective in seeding the right teams. Over the last 5 years 77.5% of the top 8 seeds have made the WCWS. Dang good job but who says they cannot further enhance the process to get to 80.0-82.5% success rate. Time will tell but with more data they should get better at what they do.
 
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I guess I'm weird because I enjoy the RPI debate (and others) between Syb and Spock. It's like watching a tennis match. In the meantime, can someone please tell me about U of Washington's softball team? Thanks.
 
Who does Washington start against the Sooners Their long time ace Alvelo has thrown the most innings with 175.0 vs 145.0 but their freshman Plain has the best ERA 1.06 vs 1.12. A side note is that in the regionals and super-regionals Plain had 4 starts and Alvelo 2 starts. In the post season Plain has thrown for 25 inning with a 0.84 ERA and Alvelo 10.0 innings with a 0.70 ERA. Alvelo is more of a K pitcher averaging 9.2/7 innings to Plain's 8.3 but Alvelo only struck out 1 Sooner in 6 innings in last year's WCWS.

The Sooners average a little better than 1 more run/g than the Huskies and have hit 22 more big flies with 80 vs their 58. Also season numbers for BA, OBP, SLG%, BB, HBP and FLDING% are slightly better for the Sooners and our K's a lot better as we average only 2.9/g to their 4.5. Both have the same 1.12 season ERA which is the best among the WCWS participants. Based on more BB's (+50) and HBP (+12) and fewer K's (-92) based on the virtually the same number of AB's the Sooners are a little more patient at the plate and still hit more HR's.

If we start Parker I do expect the Huskies to attempt to attack her defense with the bunt to the right side to avoid Syd's defense.
 
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Local girl that got away from Patty. Sydney Sherrill from Southmoore was the 2017 Gatorade Oklahoma player of the year. Maybe she wanted to start as a freshman and that would have been difficult in Norman. I would like to know the story on why FSU.

This year she hit .385 with a .452 OBP, .687 SLG%, 10 HR's, 51 RBI's and 43 runs for FSU.

http://seminoles.com/sports/softball/roster/season/2017-18/sydney-sherrill/

http://seminolesweb-8b76.kxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/2018-FSU-Season-Stats-11.pdf
 
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SoonerSpock said:
Who does Washington start against the Sooners Their long time ace Alvelo has thrown the most innings with 175.0 vs 145.0 but their freshman Plain has the best ERA 1.06 vs 1.12. A side note is that in the regionals and super-regionals Plain had 4 starts and Alvelo 2 starts. In the post season Plain has thrown for 25 inning with a 0.84 ERA and Alvelo 10.0 innings with a 0.70 ERA. Alvelo is more of a K pitcher averaging 9.2/7 innings to Plain's 8.3 but Alvelo only struck out 1 Sooner in 6 innings in last year's WCWS.

The Sooners average a little better than 1 more run/g than the Huskies and have hit 22 more big flies with 80 vs their 58. Also season numbers for BA, OBP, SLG%, BB, HBP and FLDING% are slightly better for the Sooners and our K's a lot better as we average only 2.9/g to their 4.5. Both have the same 1.12 season ERA which is the best among the WCWS participants. Based on more BB's (+50) and HBP (+12) and fewer K's (-92) based on the virtually the same number of AB's the Sooners are a little more patient at the plate and still hit more HR's.

If we start Parker I do expect the Huskies to attempt to attack her defense with the bunt to
the right side to avoid Syd's defense.
Click to expand...

You forgot to add the usual disclaimer that OU's numbers are skewed due to them being compiled against inferior competition.
 
scrybe said:
You forgot to add the usual disclaimer that OU's numbers are skewed due to them being compiled against inferior competition.
Click to expand...

Those are your words not mine. However now that you mentioned it. The fact that OU played only 9 games against top 25 competition, fewest in the WCWS, while Florida played 33, Georgia 23, Oregon 21, ASU 18, Washington 18, UCLA 16 and FSU 12 might have some thinking the other teams did play a tougher schedule and may be more well honed for playing against top competition. Check the Nitty Gritty. Also note OU played the fewest number 13 of road games (tied with ASU and Georgia) of any team in the WCWS. FSU played 21 and Florida 19.

I acknowledge their is little OU can do to overcome that scheduling advantage for the SEC and Pac 12 thanks to the departure of Nebraska, Missouri and aTm from the Big 12. But is wrong to not recognize the schools in those conferences play a much more difficult schedule. With a tougher schedule OU is probably seeded #1 or #2 instead of #4. But if you don't play the SOS you don't get the seed as SOS counts for 75% of the rankings with a little "eye test" thrown in at the end to tweak the seedings. This year their eye test only bumped Tennessee and elevated Georgia in the top 8.

It works just like the Pac-12 and the Big 12 football teams being penalized while contending for the CFP because of their weaker football schedules. Also driven by conference affiliation and weaker teams.

Patty attempts to mitigate the situation with her non-conference scheduling as best she can but she cannot overcome the numbers game. OU attempts to do the same thing in football but scramble to make the #3 or #4 spot as they are never seriously considered for the #1 and #2 slot.

It is what it is unfortunately. And while I would like to see winning percentage count a little more in the RPI and SOS at little less to give teams more control of their own destiny I do not have the evidence to prove it would make the RPI system better and it is very successful now. Nor are other unsubstantiated desires for change a concern of the selection committee.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/SB Nitty Gritty Through 5-13-2018.pdf
 
SoonerSpock said:
Those are your words not mine. However now that you mentioned it. The fact that OU played only 9 games against top 25 competition, fewest in the WCWS, while Florida played 33, Georgia 23, Oregon 21, ASU 18, Washington 18, UCLA 16 and FSU 12 might have some thinking the other teams did play a tougher schedule and may be more well honed for playing against top competition. Check the Nitty Gritty. Also note OU played the fewest number 13 of road games (tied with ASU and Georgia) of any team in the WCWS. FSU played 21 and Florida 19.

I acknowledge their is little OU can do to overcome that scheduling advantage for the SEC and Pac 12 thanks to the departure of Nebraska, Missouri and aTm from the Big 12. But is wrong to not recognize the schools in those conferences play a much more difficult schedule. With a tougher schedule OU is probably seeded #1 or #2 instead of #4. But if you don't play the SOS you don't get the seed as SOS counts for 75% of the rankings with a little "eye test" thrown in at the end to tweak the seedings. This year their eye test only bumped Tennessee and elevated Georgia in the top 8.

It works just like the Pac-12 and the Big 12 football teams being penalized while contending for the CFP because of their weaker football schedules. Also driven by conference affiliation and weaker teams.

Patty attempts to mitigate the situation with her non-conference scheduling as best she can but she cannot overcome the numbers game. OU attempts to do the same thing in football but scramble to make the #3 or #4 spot as they are never seriously considered for the #1 and #2 slot.

It is what it is unfortunately. And while I would like to see winning percentage count a little more in the RPI and SOS at little less to give teams more control of their own destiny I do not have the evidence to prove it would make the RPI system better and it is very successful now. Nor are other unsubstantiated desires for change a concern of the selection committee.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/SB Nitty Gritty Through 5-13-2018.pdf
Click to expand...

Sorry, boys. I shouldn't have reminded him. :eek:
 
SoonerSpock said:
Those are your words not mine. However now that you mentioned it. The fact that OU played only 9 games against top 25 competition, fewest in the WCWS, while Florida played 33, Georgia 23, Oregon 21, ASU 18, Washington 18, UCLA 16 and FSU 12 might have some thinking the other teams did play a tougher schedule and may be more well honed for playing against top competition. Check the Nitty Gritty. Also note OU played the fewest number 13 of road games (tied with ASU and Georgia) of any team in the WCWS. FSU played 21 and Florida 19.

I acknowledge their is little OU can do to overcome that scheduling advantage for the SEC and Pac 12 thanks to the departure of Nebraska, Missouri and aTm from the Big 12. But is wrong to not recognize the schools in those conferences play a much more difficult schedule. With a tougher schedule OU is probably seeded #1 or #2 instead of #4. But if you don't play the SOS you don't get the seed as SOS counts for 75% of the rankings with a little "eye test" thrown in at the end to tweak the seedings. This year their eye test only bumped Tennessee and elevated Georgia in the top 8.

It works just like the Pac-12 and the Big 12 football teams being penalized while contending for the CFP because of their weaker football schedules. Also driven by conference affiliation and weaker teams.

Patty attempts to mitigate the situation with her non-conference scheduling as best she can but she cannot overcome the numbers game. OU attempts to do the same thing in football but scramble to make the #3 or #4 spot as they are never seriously considered for the #1 and #2 slot.

It is what it is unfortunately. And while I would like to see winning percentage count a little more in the RPI and SOS at little less to give teams more control of their own destiny I do not have the evidence to prove it would make the RPI system better and it is very successful now. Nor are other unsubstantiated desires for change a concern of the selection committee.

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats Library/SB Nitty Gritty Through 5-13-2018.pdf
Click to expand...
FWIW, OU FB was the #2 seed in the playoff behind Clemson last year. Agree w/ the gist of your point re; Patty's OOC's though.
 
SoonerSpock said:
Local girl that got away from Patty. Sydney Sherrill from Southmoore was the 2017 Gatorade Oklahoma player of the year. Maybe she wanted to start as a freshman and that would have been difficult in Norman. I would like to know the story on why FSU.

This year she hit .385 with a .452 OBP, .687 SLG%, 10 HR's, 51 RBI's and 43 runs for FSU.

http://seminoles.com/sports/softball/roster/season/2017-18/sydney-sherrill/

http://seminolesweb-8b76.kxcdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/2018-FSU-Season-Stats-11.pdf
Click to expand...

I wondered the same thing, Spock. There are always many reasons why kids choose the school that they do, and no program can always keep all of the home state talent at home, no matter how hard they try.
I wish that she had decided to stay at home and play for Patty, but... :facepalm
FWIW, there's an article on ESPNW that likely provides the best hint as to why she spurned Patty and OU for the Seminoles: (excerpt from article, link to whole article is HERE)

A summer spent playing for her country, competing with and against the best her peer group has to offer and learning from mentors like former Olympians Laura Berg and Natasha Watley, will soon be followed by piling in the car with her parents and driving to Tallahassee, much nearer the beach she craves than is Oklahoma.
Click to expand...
 
WCWS participants season records against other WCWS opponents

Oregon-----10-3
Florida-------2-3
UCLA---------6-3
OU------------1-1
Washington--1-8
FSU-----------2-2
Georgia-------2-2
ASU-----------4-6
 
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