It still appears OU has an outside shot at hosting a super-regional despite still having to jump 5 teams in the rpi to get a hosting bid. But our strength of schedule playing in the Big 12 is definitely hurting the Sooners. Fortunately we get our only remaining ranked opponent #10 Baylor this weekend.
Obviously the first prerequisite is for OU to sweep #10 Baylor this weekend and win out the regular season plus the Big 12 tournament. It does appear based on remaining schedules that several teams in the #4-#12 slots will have several losses prior to the post season which should work to OU's advantage.
#12 LSU with 12 losses closes with series against #9 Tennessee, #28 Missouri and #22 South Carolina. It would be to OU advantage for Tennessee to win that series. Maybe even sweep the series. A 14-15 loss tiger team is not going to rank above an OU team with two conference championships.
#11 Minnesota has only 3 losses and close out their season against #44 Wisconsin, Iowa, North Dakota and Purdue. Apt to win out. Difficult to jump unless they lose their conference tournament.
#10 Baylor with a sweep we would easily jump them and move up one spot.
#9 Tennessee closes the season with series against #12 LSU, #1 Florida, #5 A&M and #14 Alabama. Likely to lose 4-6 games. If so Sooner should jump the 9-11 loss Vols with both a conference and a tournament championship for the Sooners. Especially if we win out and are on a 27 game winning streak.
#8 FSU has series with #52 Louisville, #33 UNC, 1 game with #1 Florida and a series against #7 Oregon. Lose 3 of the last 4 and I think OU with its two championships has a slim shot at jumping a 6-7 loss FSU. However FSU's high poll rankings might work against the Sooners.
#7 Oregon has series against #3 Arizona, #42 Oregon State, #84 Stanford and #8 FSU. I can see another 4-5 loses as reasonable. Oregon is 2-4 over last 6 games and going 12-9 or 13-8 to close the season along with OU's championships the Sooners should jump the Ducks.
#6 UCLA already has 12 loses and with series against #17 Cal, #54 Stanford and #3 Arizona another 3-4 losses is very possible. Just cannot see a 15-16 loss UCLA staying ahead of a 7-8 loss OU with two conference championships.
#5 Texas A&M has series with #26 Georgia, #10 Tennessee, #16 Kentucky and a single game with #29 Louisiana Lafayette. 2-4 losses possible to close the season with 8-9 losses. Because of strength of schedule on the cusp regarding OU jumping them. 50/50 depending who they lose to? Preferably George and Lafayette.
#4 Washington already has 10 losses and have #17 Cal, #84 Stanford, #15 Utah, 2 games against #14 Alabama and single games against Seattle and UAB. 3-4 losses is very viable but another on the cusp team as to whether the Sooner could jump them despite their possibly losing 11 or 12 of their last 25.
As stated earlier OU needs to jump 5 of the 9 teams listed above and we cannot afford for any of them to win their conference championship. Also we do not know how these teams superior strength of schedule will work against the Sooners but realistically we can still host both a regional and a super-regional if the ball bounces just right.
Root for Florida, Arizona, Michigan and anyone not named FSU to win their conference tournaments.
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softball/d1/ncaa-womens-softball-rpi