Softball

[sybarite]

Barnhill is a handful. But, they used her in every game against Kentucky, and she shut them down twice. But, she allowed five runs in the middle game. Therein also lies another problem. Florida can be shut down. They played FSU twice, 1-0 and 1-2. They shut Ole Miss down three times. But, they only scored ten runs in those three games.

If I were to bet, I would probably bet slightly on Florida because the bottom of our batting order simply hasn't come around well. It may limit our scoring. The top will get us a run or two. I don't think it makes much difference whether we play them one or three. All three would be battles.

I think it will be an upset if someone else wins. Of course, softball, like baseball, is won on streaks.

The Cards won a World Series because some kid named Freese had 21 RBIs in the playoffs. Heard of him since? Heard of him before?

 

[scrybe]

Hell no I will have my crimson colored glasses on but the smart money would be on the Gators.

Then it would probably be unwise of you to go against the "smart money."

:ez-laugh::ez-laugh::ez-laugh:

 

[SoonerSpock]

Then it would probably be unwise of you to go against the "smart money."

:ez-laugh::ez-laugh::ez-laugh:

But I don't bet. I observe and root for the crimson and cream. I also study teams to better understand what the real opportunity is. But when discussing circumstances I try to be pragmatic and keep my emotions on the sidelines as I do not like being blindsided.

I have had my share like sitting in the stands watching watch OU play USC for the 2004 national championship in the 2005 Orange Bowl. That one and a dozen or two more like the 1978 Orange Bowl between Arkansas and OU.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Barnhill is a handful. But, they used her in every game against Kentucky, and she shut them down twice. But, she allowed five runs in the middle game. Therein also lies another problem. Florida can be shut down. They played FSU twice, 1-0 and 1-2. They shut Ole Miss down three times. But, they only scored ten runs in those three games.

If I were to bet, I would probably bet slightly on Florida because the bottom of our batting order simply hasn't come around well. It may limit our scoring. The top will get us a run or two. I don't think it makes much difference whether we play them one or three. All three would be battles.

I think it will be an upset if someone else wins. Of course, softball, like baseball, is won on streaks.

The Cards won a World Series because some kid named Freese had 21 RBIs in the playoffs. Heard of him since? Heard of him before?

With the bolded statement above I understand you to be say that Florida and OU should be the favorites. Sorry I can not buy that. To me that is a statement from the heart where one forgot to use the mind.

If you look at the top 8 teams in this weeks rpi their records against top 25 teams is #1 Florida 19-4, #2 Oregon 16-6, #3 Auburn 15-8, #4 UCLA 16-11, #5 Arizona 15-6, #6 Washington 15-8, #7 FSU 4-6 and #8 A&M 14-4. OU's record against the top 25 is 5-5 far and away the worst of any of the teams.

If you look at the losses against teams ranked #26 or lower (bad losses) Oregon and FSU have zero, Florida, Auburn and Arizona have 1, UCLA has 2. Washington and OU have 3 and A&M has 5. Only A&M has more bad losses than OU but has 9 more quality wins.

If you put any credence to the quality of the opposition (SOS) then of the teams listed above (rpi top 8 plus OU) then #6 Washington, #7 FSU , #8 A&M and #11 OU are clustered appropriately at the bottom of the rankings with at least 6 teams having much better odds of winning the championship at this stage in the game.

Personally is we get to the WCWS I think our chances would be much better than some of those 6 teams but a long way from the second favorite. I readily admit I am making that assumption looking at the tournament through my crimson colored glasses with maximum confidence in Paige Parker as a money pitcher. But for certain the Vegas odds will not reflect my jaundiced perspective. I guess we will know more in a couple of weeks when the odds come out.

Another factor when evaluating the Florida, Auburn and A&M is in addition to there being 10 SEC teams in the top 25 the SEC had 17 pitchers that threw 100 innings and had a 2.0 era or better. The Big 12 only had 6 and 2 of them were Sooners. Much better pitching in the SEC. Did not do the analysis on the Pac 12.

 

[Speedy17]

With the bolded statement above I understand you to be say that Florida and OU should be the favorites. Sorry I can not buy that. To me that is a statement from the heart where one forgot to use the mind.

If you look at the top 8 teams in this weeks rpi their records against top 25 teams is #1 Florida 19-4, #2 Oregon 16-6, #3 Auburn 15-8, #4 UCLA 16-11, #5 Arizona 15-6, #6 Washington 15-8, #7 FSU 4-6 and #8 A&M 14-4. OU's record against the top 25 is 5-5 far and away the worst of any of the teams.

If you look at the losses against teams ranked #26 or lower (bad losses) Oregon and FSU have zero, Florida, Auburn and Arizona have 1, UCLA has 2. Washington and OU have 3 and A&M has 5. Only A&M has more bad losses than OU but has 9 more quality wins.

If you put any credence to the quality of the opposition (SOS) then of the teams listed above (rpi top 8 plus OU) then #6 Washington, #7 FSU , #8 A&M and #11 OU are clustered appropriately at the bottom of the rankings with at least 6 teams having much better odds of winning the championship at this stage in the game.

Personally is we get to the WCWS I think our chances would be much better than some of those 6 teams but a long way from the second favorite. I readily admit I am making that assumption looking at the tournament through my crimson colored glasses with maximum confidence in Paige Parker as a money pitcher. But for certain the Vegas odds will not reflect my jaundiced perspective. I guess we will know more in a couple of weeks when the odds come out.

Another factor when evaluating the Florida, Auburn and A&M is in addition to there being 10 SEC teams in the top 25 the SEC had 17 pitchers that threw 100 innings and had a 2.0 era or better. The Big 12 only had 6 and 2 of them were Sooners. Much better pitching in the SEC. Did not do the analysis on the Pac 12.

I will take my chances with OU vs. anybody including Florida with Paige Parker on the mound. She is rounding into playoff form - don't forget that she went 10-0 last season in the NCAA and she is much more rested this season.

One other thing, OU has lost 8 games this year with 6 losses by one run (Auburn 2-3, Washington 0-1, Tennessee 1-2, Notre Dame 4-5, Arizona 3-4, and Baylor 2-3) and the 2 losses that are killing us right now - Cal Poly 1-3 and 1-3. Last season, we got drilled a couple of times - Washington 3-10 and Michigan.

Bottom line is that NO ONE wants to draw the Sooners regardless of where the game is played.

 

[j2d2]

We have the pitching and fielding. We need for half of our lineup to get in the game and hit and we need to stop leaving runners in scoring position on base.

 

[sybarite]

With the bolded statement above I understand you to be say that Florida and OU should be the favorites. Sorry I can not buy that. To me that is a statement from the heart where one forgot to use the mind.

If you look at the top 8 teams in this weeks rpi their records against top 25 teams is #1 Florida 19-4, #2 Oregon 16-6, #3 Auburn 15-8, #4 UCLA 16-11, #5 Arizona 15-6, #6 Washington 15-8, #7 FSU 4-6 and #8 A&M 14-4. OU's record against the top 25 is 5-5 far and away the worst of any of the teams.

If you look at the losses against teams ranked #26 or lower (bad losses) Oregon and FSU have zero, Florida, Auburn and Arizona have 1, UCLA has 2. Washington and OU have 3 and A&M has 5. Only A&M has more bad losses than OU but has 9 more quality wins.

If you put any credence to the quality of the opposition (SOS) then of the teams listed above (rpi top 8 plus OU) then #6 Washington, #7 FSU , #8 A&M and #11 OU are clustered appropriately at the bottom of the rankings with at least 6 teams having much better odds of winning the championship at this stage in the game.

Personally is we get to the WCWS I think our chances would be much better than some of those 6 teams but a long way from the second favorite. I readily admit I am making that assumption looking at the tournament through my crimson colored glasses with maximum confidence in Paige Parker as a money pitcher. But for certain the Vegas odds will not reflect my jaundiced perspective. I guess we will know more in a couple of weeks when the odds come out.

I have pretty much discarded the rpi and its rankings. Even the polls make more sense. The rpi continues to think Cal is a good team. I look at the actual schedules of these teams and keep a running tally of their scores, as well as against whom and where. Some things don't seem to concern the rpi that I think are quite relevant.

The rpi doesn't seem concerned about Florida losing at home to Maryland, or the fact that Maryland finished last in the Big Ten. It doesn't seem to care that Florida never left the state of Florida in the first fifteen games. Then, they went to California for five games, but only beat one decent team, UCLA. We beat them. So what! I see questions when you lose to a Maryland.

The nonsense about Cal Poly or the number of losses. We ran into a hot and good pitcher in Sierra Hyland at a time when we had two recovering from surgery and had no set lineup. We gave Mendes her first shot that weekend. So, Hyland shut us down twice. I'm still not seeing a loss at home to Maryland in that.

I look at LSU who lost at home to Penn State, about eighth in the Big Ten. They moved past us in the rpi? Really? Then, there is A&M who lived in College Stations against the Prairie View A&Ms of the world, went to Cal and had one good win (Florida State, and we saw how they are on the road this week), with another against BYU. Then, they come home and lose in College Station to Houston? At home? Losses like that seem to be ignored by the rpi. My mindset doesn't ignore that type of a loss. There is losing to Washington and Auburn in Puerto Vaerta, and then there is losing at home to a Houston or Maryland or Penn State. OU has one home loss---to Baylor who is still ranked ahead of us despite having lost four (?) in conference.

They still give credit to A&M and Florida for big wins against Michigan. Michigan started slowly after trying to rebuild their team. They are better now, but not the quality of last year. You don't get extra credit for beating them in Gainesville.

Look at Oregon's early schedule. Who exactly did they beat. After about ten games, all of these teams were in the top five or ten.

Why?

Don't bother me with the rpi until it is repaired.

 

[SoonerSpock]

I have pretty much discarded the rpi and its rankings. Even the polls make more sense. The rpi continues to think Cal is a good team. I look at the actual schedules of these teams and keep a running tally of their scores, as well as against whom and where. Some things don't seem to concern the rpi that I think are quite relevant.

The rpi doesn't seem concerned about Florida losing at home to Maryland, or the fact that Maryland finished last in the Big Ten. It doesn't seem to care that Florida never left the state of Florida in the first fifteen games. Then, they went to California for five games, but only beat one decent team, UCLA. We beat them. So what! I see questions when you lose to a Maryland.

The nonsense about Cal Poly or the number of losses. We ran into a hot and good pitcher in Sierra Hyland at a time when we had two recovering from surgery and had no set lineup. We gave Mendes her first shot that weekend. So, Hyland shut us down twice. I'm still not seeing a loss at home to Maryland in that.

I look at LSU who lost at home to Penn State, about eighth in the Big Ten. They moved past us in the rpi? Really? Then, there is A&M who lived in College Stations against the Prairie View A&Ms of the world, went to Cal and had one good win (Florida State, and we saw how they are on the road this week), with another against BYU. Then, they come home and lose in College Station to Houston? At home? Losses like that seem to be ignored by the rpi. My mindset doesn't ignore that type of a loss. There is losing to Washington and Auburn in Puerto Vaerta, and then there is losing at home to a Houston or Maryland or Penn State. OU has one home loss---to Baylor who is still ranked ahead of us despite having lost four (?) in conference.

They still give credit to A&M and Florida for big wins against Michigan. Michigan started slowly after trying to rebuild their team. They are better now, but not the quality of last year. You don't get extra credit for beating them in Gainesville.

Look at Oregon's early schedule. Who exactly did they beat. After about ten games, all of these teams were in the top five or ten.

Why?

Don't bother me with the rpi until it is repaired.

Impossible to bother a closed minded DS who thinks he know more about all things than anyone else. Deny the rpi all you want about in all sports and then look at their success when comparing their seedings to performance to actual performance in the tournaments.

I perceive the rpi is beyond your comprehension but then in your case Ned's first reader maybe as well.

You want to dwell on Florida's loss to Maryland, a very bad loss. But you want to ignore their 19 wins against top 25 teams. You must evaluate teams on their total body of work not just the isolated incidents that support your position to get a true perspective. A concept beyond your grasp. But speaking in half truths using isolated incidents is your forte. And you damn sure have that down pat.

 

[Speedy17]

Impossible to bother a closed minded DS who thinks he know more about all things than anyone else. Deny the rpi all you want about in all sports and then look at their success when comparing their seedings to performance to actual performance in the tournaments.

I perceive the rpi is beyond your comprehension but then in your case Ned's first reader maybe as well.

You want to dwell on Florida's loss to Maryland, a very bad loss. But you want to ignore their 19 wins against top 25 teams. You must evaluate teams on their total body of work not just the isolated incidents that support your position to get a true perspective. A concept beyond your grasp. But speaking in half truths using isolated incidents is your forte. And you damn sure have that down pat.

The dilemma with the RPI is that OU will always be against the wall with it because the conference is so weak in softball. Only seven teams and two in the top 25 - it is fragile for OU. Here we are in the Big 12 tourney and we get #33 Texas and #137 Texas Tech on Friday. If OU doesn't dominate from start to finish then there is an RPI problem. In the SEC, all fourteen teams are in the top 32. You can't make up ground against that. Minnesota's rating is fragile for the same reason, a loss in the Big Ten tourney and they are gone.

 

[SoonerSpock]

The dilemma with the RPI is that OU will always be against the wall with it because the conference is so weak in softball. Only seven teams and two in the top 25 - it is fragile for OU. Here we are in the Big 12 tourney and we get #33 Texas and #137 Texas Tech on Friday. If OU doesn't dominate from start to finish then there is an RPI problem. In the SEC, all fourteen teams are in the top 32. You can't make up ground against that. Minnesota's rating is fragile for the same reason, a loss in the Big Ten tourney and they are gone.

By in large I agree OU is fighting an uphill battle beginning day one of the season because of OU's weak conference schedule. They have little to no ability to make up ground on SEC and Pac 12 teams because of their strong conference SOS. However they moved up 2 spots this week with their sweep of OSU and both Texas #37 and Baylor #10 are ahead of OSU #37. So a slight movement of a spot or two may still be possible.

On the other hand if you were referencing dominating from start to finish against Texas and Tech you most note that margin of victory is not a part of the rpi. All that matter is if you win. If #11 OU wins out they should jump #10 Baylor and remotely could jump #8 A&M especially if they lose to #14 Alabama in the first round of the SEC. Oklahoma fans should remember how their ace Osorio throws the ball. She can beat anyone when she is on.

A third and more remote prospect to jump is #7 FSU. From a SOS perspective they are 4-6 against top 25 teams and OU is 5-5 but FSU's wins and losses are slightly better.

The big factor that I cannot determine is does the committee factor in a teams won-loss record over its last 10 to 20 games. The press has always brought late season winning streaks up for discussion regarding the NCAA basketball tournament seedings but I can find no documentation of its use in either basketball, baseball or softball.

However if it is used and the above scenarios play out OU will have won its last 10, FSU will have gone 8-2 and AM 5-5. If you look at the last 20 games OU would be 19-1, FSU 16-4 and A&M 12-8.

But because difference in these ranking numbers are so miniscule as illustrated by #7 Oregon winning a series 2-1 in Eugene against #6 FSU and jumping from #7 to #2 in the rpi while #6 FSU fell only to #7.

 

[Speedy17]

By in large I agree OU is fighting an uphill battle beginning day one of the season because of OU's weak conference schedule. They have little to no ability to make up ground on SEC and Pac 12 teams because of their strong conference SOS. However they moved up 2 spots this week with their sweep of OSU and both Texas #37 and Baylor #10 are ahead of OSU #37. So a slight movement of a spot or two may still be possible.

On the other hand if you were referencing dominating from start to finish against Texas and Tech you most note that margin of victory is not a part of the rpi. All that matter is if you win. If #11 OU wins out they should jump #10 Baylor and remotely could jump #8 A&M especially if they lose to #14 Alabama in the first round of the SEC. Oklahoma fans should remember how their ace Osorio throws the ball. She can beat anyone when she is on.

A third and more remote prospect to jump is #7 FSU. From a SOS perspective they are 4-6 against top 25 teams and OU is 5-5 but FSU's wins and losses are slightly better.

The big factor that I cannot determine is does the committee factor in a teams won-loss record over its last 10 to 20 games. The press has always brought late season winning streaks up for discussion regarding the NCAA basketball tournament seedings but I can find no documentation of its use in either basketball, baseball or softball.

However if it is used and the above scenarios play out OU will have won its last 10, FSU will have gone 8-2 and AM 5-5. If you look at the last 20 games OU would be 19-1, FSU 16-4 and A&M 12-8.

But because difference in these ranking numbers are so miniscule as illustrated by #7 Oregon winning a series 2-1 in Eugene against #6 FSU and jumping from #7 to #2 in the rpi while #6 FSU fell only to #7.

I was not talking about margin of victory with the rpi - it has been mathematically removed. I was saying it would be hard to gain when playing a team that are ranked so low. I think the committee will have OU ahead of Baylor barring a loss to them in the tournament.

I think OU benefited by the end of season records in both 2014 and 2016. It happened even in the rpi though the schedule was weak. In 2015, not so much with the result being sent to Bama. I am hoping Minnesota loses that would be huge for OU.

 

[SoonerSpock]

I was not talking about margin of victory with the rpi - it has been mathematically removed. I was saying it would be hard to gain when playing a team that are ranked so low. I think the committee will have OU ahead of Baylor barring a loss to them in the tournament.

I think OU benefited by the end of season records in both 2014 and 2016. It happened even in the rpi though the schedule was weak. In 2015, not so much with the result being sent to Bama. I am hoping Minnesota loses that would be huge for OU.

I agree and the gophers do have to play the B1G tournament in Ann Arbor and that is a plus for #21 Michigan. Go Blue.

I think I am hoping that OU finishes #10 in the rankings playing the #7 team in the super-regional at Tallahassee. The Seminoles have a losing record against top 25 teams 4-6 and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and 15-5 in their last 20 so they are definitely on a roll. Five of their 6 losses are in the last 14 games.

The 'noles BA, HR's, runs scored and stolen bases are very similar to the Sooners. They have two quality pitchers with their ace having a 1.08 era and their #2 pitcher a 1.49. Both have thrown 150+ innings. Parker's era is 1.47 for 147.2 innings but down to 0.86 for the conference season. OU is a much better fielding team at .980 vs .968.

Parker allowed 16 HR's in 98 inning to start the season but only 1 the last 49+ innings.

 

[Sooner Cal]

The RPI was clearly structured to favor the PAC and SEC. when 2 PAC teams split a series the rpi of both teams goes up.

I guarantee no PAC or SEC team wants to see OU in it's Super Regional, but they'd rather see that than play in Norman.

 

[Speedy17]

I agree and the gophers do have to play the B1G tournament in Ann Arbor and that is a plus for #21 Michigan. Go Blue.

I think I am hoping that OU finishes #10 in the rankings playing the #7 team in the super-regional at Tallahassee. The Seminoles have a losing record against top 25 teams 4-6 and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games and 15-5 in their last 20 so they are definitely on a roll. Five of their 6 losses are in the last 14 games.

The 'noles BA, HR's, runs scored and stolen bases are very similar to the Sooners. They have two quality pitchers with their ace having a 1.08 era and their #2 pitcher a 1.49. Both have thrown 150+ innings. Parker's era is 1.47 for 147.2 innings but down to 0.86 for the conference season. OU is a much better fielding team at .980 vs .968.

Parker allowed 16 HR's in 98 inning to start the season but only 1 the last 49+ innings.

You forgot one stat on that FSU report - 25-0 at home.

 

[SoonerSpock]

You forgot one stat on that FSU report - 25-0 at home.

So true. But all top teams are tough at home and FSU has played only 1 top 25 team at home. Also OU is also presently on a 26 true road game winning streak. I just think on paper FSU may afford OU its best chance to advance from the super-regional to the WCWS. The other top rpi teams are a +7 in wins over top 25 teams except for UCLA with a +5. OU is 5-5.

Also FSU has the smallest average home attendance of any team presently ranked in the rpi top 8 averaging with only 781 fans/game which could be a plus for OU. After FSU I think Washington and A&M offer the Sooners the best opportunity to make it back to the WCWS.

Of course from here on out you need to keep your losses to only 1 NCAA game and all games are going to be tight.

 

[Speedy17]

Congrats to Northwestern pitching coach Michelle Gascoigne in winning the first round in the Big Ten Tourney 6-1 over Purdue. Now she can really help the Sooners by beating Minnesota tomorrow.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Congrats to Northwestern pitching coach Michelle Gascoigne in winning the first round in the Big Ten Tourney 6-1 over Purdue. Now she can really help the Sooners by beating Minnesota tomorrow.

Fingers crossed.

 

[Speedy17]

Bama beats A&M 2-1 in 10 innings. Aggies are 6-7 in the last 13 and primed to be passed by OU if we take care of business this weekend.

 

[scrybe]

I believe we sometimes rely too heavily on stats to predict winners and losers in team sports like softball. Stats are important, of course, but when rating individual players – and teams – I believe the eye test, the way that player or team is performing at this point in time, can be just as important.

Look throughout Division 1 and you'll find plenty of players with higher batting averages than Caleigh Clifton. But how many of those same players with their gaudy BAs can come close to CC's on-base percentage? RBIs are also important, but when a player pads her RBI total by hitting a grand slam with her team down 6-0 in the ninth inning, then are those RBIs really that meaningful?

Records against Top 25 teams? You want and need to beat highly ranked teams in order to have a good RPI, but a 2-1 loss early in the season might become a five-run win later in the year when your team is healthy and playing with a set lineup. I think we all know OU is a better team today than the team that lost 4-3 to Auburn in the season opener.

A pitcher has one really bad performance in 10 starts and gives up six earned runs before leaving the game in the fourth inning. Her ERA balloons over the 3.00 mark as a result. Does that mean she's likely to lose her next game to an opponent whose pitcher has an ERA under 1.50?

I believe there are probably only 6-7 teams that have a reasonable chance of winning the WCWS this year. Oklahoma is on that list, along with a couple of SEC teams, three from the PAC 12 and one from the Big 10. As you can probably guess, my picks have little to do with which teams have the best batting average, ERA or RPI.

 

[Speedy17]

I believe we sometimes rely too heavily on stats to predict winners and losers in team sports like softball. Stats are important, of course, but when rating individual players – and teams – I believe the eye test, the way that player or team is performing at this point in time, can be just as important.

Look throughout Division 1 and you'll find plenty of players with higher batting averages than Caleigh Clifton. But how many of those same players with their gaudy BAs can come close to CC's on-base percentage? RBIs are also important, but when a player pads her RBI total by hitting a grand slam with her team down 6-0 in the ninth inning, then are those RBIs really that meaningful?

Records against Top 25 teams? You want and need to beat highly ranked teams in order to have a good RPI, but a 2-1 loss early in the season might become a five-run win later in the year when your team is healthy and playing with a set lineup. I think we all know OU is a better team today than the team that lost 4-3 to Auburn in the season opener.

A pitcher has one really bad performance in 10 starts and gives up six earned runs before leaving the game in the fourth inning. Her ERA balloons over the 3.00 mark as a result. Does that mean she's likely to lose her next game to an opponent whose pitcher has an ERA under 1.50?

I believe there are probably only 6-7 teams that have a reasonable chance of winning the WCWS this year. Oklahoma is on that list, along with a couple of SEC teams, three from the PAC 12 and one from the Big 10. As you can probably guess, my picks have little to do with which teams have the best batting average, ERA or RPI.

I think Arizona, UCLA, OU, Florida, Tennessee, and Auburn are really in the mix. I think Minnesota is magic dust of an easy schedule. I don't believe in Washington though they beat OU 1-0 in Mexico.

OU has lost eight games with six being 1 run games and two bad losses by 2 runs to Cal Poly. Without those Cal Poly losses, OU is Top 5.