Softball

[SoonerSpock]

I believe we sometimes rely too heavily on stats to predict winners and losers in team sports like softball. Stats are important, of course, but when rating individual players – and teams – I believe the eye test, the way that player or team is performing at this point in time, can be just as important.

Look throughout Division 1 and you'll find plenty of players with higher batting averages than Caleigh Clifton. But how many of those same players with their gaudy BAs can come close to CC's on-base percentage? RBIs are also important, but when a player pads her RBI total by hitting a grand slam with her team down 6-0 in the ninth inning, then are those RBIs really that meaningful?

Records against Top 25 teams? You want and need to beat highly ranked teams in order to have a good RPI, but a 2-1 loss early in the season might become a five-run win later in the year when your team is healthy and playing with a set lineup. I think we all know OU is a better team today than the team that lost 4-3 to Auburn in the season opener.

A pitcher has one really bad performance in 10 starts and gives up six earned runs before leaving the game in the fourth inning. Her ERA balloons over the 3.00 mark as a result. Does that mean she's likely to lose her next game to an opponent whose pitcher has an ERA under 1.50?

I believe there are probably only 6-7 teams that have a reasonable chance of winning the WCWS this year. Oklahoma is on that list, along with a couple of SEC teams, three from the PAC 12 and one from the Big 10. As you can probably guess, my picks have little to do with which teams have the best batting average, ERA or RPI.

No question the numbers do not provide the answer as to which team is the best team and which one will win a tournament. There are too many variables like injuries, teams on a roll, how teams match up, etc. However, quantitative statistical data is the best predictive vehicle for comparing teams strengths and weakness. Using the eye allows 10 different set of eyes to have 10 totally different evaluations with all evaluations being totally subjective.

The biggest shortcoming of the rpi analysis is the total disregard for margin of victory which needs to be a considered factor in determining SOS differences between team. Other methodologies have a margin of victory factor included.

Margin of victory has been excluded to ensure the rpi ranking system can not be used as a tool for the gaming industry and thereby has a greater error factor than other systems. For certain the statistical data including rpi cannot determine the winner of games but to me it is a better tool for making those comparisons than just a gut feeling from watching a few games as they use data from all games in their comparison with many systems making allowance for variables that change as the season progresses.

The below link is an analysis of 3 statistical ranking of the NCAA basketball tournament showing their methodology being accurate 63-72% of the time. Now give me some evidence that you can approach that accuracy without not once looking at any similar evaluations or statistical data prior to using your eye test to determine the winners of all the tournament games.

If you can beat those numbers I would recommend your moving to Vegas and changing vocations.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/rpi-prediction/

 

[sybarite]

#8 Mississippi 2
#1 Florida 0

 

[Speedy17]

#8 Mississippi 2
#1 Florida 0

We now need Ole Miss to beat Bama!!! Osorio pitched 10 innings today.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Master Plan for L. Dale Mitchell and Marita Hynes announced.

http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=31000&ATCLID=211591501

 

[SoonerSpock]

We now need Ole Miss to beat Bama!!! Osorio pitched 10 innings today.

Would definitely be nice to see the Rebs beat the Tide but I think the big win was #14 Alabama over #8 A&M. That gives the aggies 5 losses in their last 6 games and #11 OU a legitimate shot at jumping them in the rpi.

OU probably jumps #10 Baylor if the win the Big 12 conference tournament especially with a another win over the Bears. If we jump both #10 Baylor and #8 A&M we move to #9 in the rpi.

I think #15 LSU beating #8 Tennessee really helps the Sooners more than a
#23 Ole Miss win over # 14 Bama as we have already passed both LSU and the Tide in the rpi but it would better to see both Ole Miss and LSU getting wins giving us a very remote chance at jumping the Vols after their (hoped for) loss to LSU. It would be nice if both Ole Miss or LSU made the finals giving #3 Auburn another loss.

I would also like to see #16 Utah sweep or at least win their series against Washington in Salt Lake City. The Utes did sweep #4 UCLA so anything is possible. Additionally a win by #36 Notre Dame over #7 FSU in the ACC semi's tomorrow afternoon could benefit the Sooners. A Notre Dame win would give FSU 4 losses in their last 5 games.

 

[scrybe]

Gut feeling? Really, Spock? Nice way to mischaracterize an opinion you don't agree with.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Gut feeling? Really, Spock? Nice way to mischaracterize an opinion you don't agree with.

Do you read and comprehend like the Syb. My opening statement in response to Speedy17 was: Would definitely be nice to see the Rebs beat the Tide. Doesn't sound to me like I was attempting to alter his opinion that we need to have Ole Miss beat the Tide. Moreoever, I later state that: Ole Miss and LSU getting wins gives us a very remote chance at jumping the Vols after their (hoped for) loss to LSU. It would be nice if both Ole Miss or LSU made the finals giving #3 Auburn another loss.

What I did do was look at all the ramifications of the SEC tournament and how other results therein could benefit the Sooners. Those efforts were not an attempt to mis-characterize any of Speedy's comments which were accurate but merely to expand on the point he started.

Get the chip off of your shoulder and learn to read what is written not what you imagine.

I will restate what I have previously stated. On this website Speedy17 is the de facto source on this board on all things regarding softball. He definitely has more access to information not available to the rest of us.

 

[Speedy17]

I don't know that I am the source in all things softball. However, I am real excited about the new facilities for softball. I might not get sunburnt with that canopy.

I fear some team getting hot in the SEC tourney and jumping a bunch of people to a high seed by virtue of the committee. That is why I don't want Bama to win the SEC tourney.

More than anything else, we need our softball team to sweep through the Big 12 Tourney.

 

[SoonerSpock]

No question Bama winning the SEC would make them a hot item in the committee's eyes. Being both a former champion and the SEC tourney champ will get attention.

I don't get sunburned thank to a good dose of 50 spf sunscreen but I will definitely enjoy the shade. Now we just need to get you to fork up the $15 mil this year where we can enjoy the upgrade in 2020 or 2021.

Seriously it would be great if they can find 2-3 donors to fund the entire upgrade ASAP. Perhaps Mary Jane Noble's heirs and Noble Foundation will step up like she did for the OU WBB practice facility.

 

[SoonerSpock]

!!!

#6 seed LSU beats #3 Tennessee 6-2. #2 Auburn beats #7 Kentucky 2-0.

#5 Alabama vs #8 Ole Miss and #2 Auburn vs #6 LSU in the semi's. Good tournament to date for the Sooners with Florida, A&M and Tennessee losing in their first game. A Ole Miss vs LSU finals would be great to have happen. Having #1 Florida, #3 Tennessee and #4 A&M lose is good. Very possible that Auburn will win its third straight SEC conference tournament while Florida has won three straight regular season SEC championships. Geaux Tigers!!! Go bulldogs!!!

UCLA beat ASU 4-3, Oregon beats Stanford 9-2and Washingtion beats Utah 12-1 in first game of their 3 game series tonight.

 

[tycat947]

I don't know that I am the source in all things softball. However, I am real excited about the new facilities for softball. I might not get sunburnt with that canopy.

I fear some team getting hot in the SEC tourney and jumping a bunch of people to a high seed by virtue of the committee. That is why I don't want Bama to win the SEC tourney.

More than anything else, we need our softball team to sweep through the Big 12 Tourney.

That canopy is not going to help much to avoid sun as anytime in afternoon, the sun will be in the west facing the stands. Should help shielding from rain (if there is no wind) but not sure about protection from sun. But it looks great though!!!

 

[Speedy17]

Re: !!!

#6 seed LSU beats #3 Tennessee 6-2. #2 Auburn beats #7 Kentucky 2-0.

#5 Alabama vs #8 Ole Miss and #2 Auburn vs #6 LSU in the semi's. Good tournament to date for the Sooners with Florida, A&M and Tennessee losing in their first game. A Ole Miss vs LSU finals would be great to have happen. Having #1 Florida, #3 Tennessee and #4 A&M lose is good. Very possible that Auburn will win its third straight SEC conference tournament while Florida has won three straight regular season SEC championships. Geaux Tigers!!! Go bulldogs!!!

UCLA beat ASU 4-3, Oregon beats Stanford 9-2and Washingtion beats Utah 12-1 in first game of their 3 game series tonight.

All of the top SEC teams losing will not help OU. LSU is close to OU in the RPI if they win the SEC tourney, they will pass OU. The best thing that can happen is for LSU to lose to Auburn and Ole Miss to beat Bama. I am fine with Ole Miss beating Auburn because OU has a head to head win over Ole Miss.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Re: !!!

All of the top SEC teams losing will not help OU. LSU is close to OU in the RPI if they win the SEC tourney, they will pass OU. The best thing that can happen is for LSU to lose to Auburn and Ole Miss to beat Bama. I am fine with Ole Miss beating Auburn because OU has a head to head win over Ole Miss.

You may be right #15 LSU with wins over #9 Tennessee and #3 Auburn might jump #11 OU with their wins over #10 Baylor and #33 Texas. But I don't know that for certain because we do not know the raw score differentials between LSU and OU in the rpi and therefore cannot calculate the impact of the wins listed above.

That is one of the problems with the rpi. They do not publish the raw scores (points) for each team in the rpi rankings like they do in the ESPN and USA/coaches polls. We know in the ESPN poll that OU is ahead of LSU 397 to 334 or 63 points. In the above scenario LSU might jump the Sooners. In the USA Poll we know OU is ahead of LSU 645 to 198 or 447 points. Very unlikely LSU jumps the Sooners if both won their tourneys.

The question in the rpi is OU ahead by 7 points, 63 points, 447 points or 600 points. We don't know hence we can only SWAG as to the impact of wins on the rpi. No question LSU would gain on OU if both won their tourneys. But would it be enough to jump the Sooners in the rpi. Better yet hang at least 1 loss on the tigers and the problem is resolved.
For certain the rpi committee could provide the information that would allow the fans to come in out of the dark and be knowledgeable of the circumstances. They choose to do otherwise. And we as fans continue to just speculate.

 

[scrybe]

No question the numbers do not provide the answer as to which team is the best team and which one will win a tournament. There are too many variables like injuries, teams on a roll, how teams match up, etc. However, quantitative statistical data is the best predictive vehicle for comparing teams strengths and weakness. Using the eye allows 10 different set of eyes to have 10 totally different evaluations with all evaluations being totally subjective.

The biggest shortcoming of the rpi analysis is the total disregard for margin of victory which needs to be a considered factor in determining SOS differences between team. Other methodologies have a margin of victory factor included.

Margin of victory has been excluded to ensure the rpi ranking system can not be used as a tool for the gaming industry and thereby has a greater error factor than other systems. For certain the statistical data including rpi cannot determine the winner of games but it is a better tool for making those comparisons than just a gut feeling from watching a few games as they use data from all games in their comparison with many systems making allowance for variables that change as the season progresses.

The below link is an analysis of 3 statistical ranking of the NCAA basketball tournament showing their methodology being accurate 63-72% of the time. Now give me some evidence that you can approach that accuracy without not once looking at any similar evaluations or statistical data prior to using your eye test to determine the winners of all the tournament games.

If you can beat those numbers I would recommend your moving to Vegas and changing vocations.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/rpi-prediction/

You're certainly right about one thing, Spock. Someone on this board obviously does have a problem with reading comprehension. My reply to your post had nothing to do with anything posted by Speedy. It was in response to your snide remark about my opinion on stats, and stating that my argument was based on nothing more than a "gut feeling."

I'm not Syb and I do not allow insults or name-calling to go unanswered. I often agree with the points you make, but even when I don't, I still respect your opinion (as I respect the opinions of everyone else on this board). But we can all have our own opinions without disparaging anyone who disagrees with us. I would hope that you might learn to show your fellow posters at least a modicum of respect, and dispense with the insults and supercilious behavior.

 

[Sooner Cal]

Whatever happens, I'm confident this team has the potential to go to the WCWS. We'll have to play the cards we draw. If we have to travel for the Super Regionals, so be it. It can just add to the chip on our shoulder from not getting the respect we deserve as defending champion with a nearly intact squad.

I'm no fan of the Committees or these statistical models because both are flawed by bias and poor predictability. At least in softball and basketball, deserving teams get into the tourney. In football, 4 teams isn't enough to do that. Eight would probably do it.

Comparing teams in softball based on stats is like comparing different generations in all sports. Would Ali beat Joe Lewis? Would Ted Williams bat .400 against today's pitching? Nobody knows, it's all just speculation and opinion.

OU run ruled UCLA. But all the talking heads say the PAC may get 90% of their league in the tourney. Same with the SEC. In other words, if a league beats itself up everybody wins. But if a team dominates its league, the league is weak. To me, that's nonsense.

 

[scrybe]

Whatever happens, I'm confident this team has the potential to go to the WCWS. We'll have to play the cards we draw. If we have to travel for the Super Regionals, so be it. It can just add to the chip on our shoulder from not getting the respect we deserve as defending champion with a nearly intact squad.

I'm no fan of the Committees or these statistical models because both are flawed by bias and poor predictability. At least in softball and basketball, deserving teams get into the tourney. In football, 4 teams isn't enough to do that. Eight would probably do it.

Comparing teams in softball based on stats is like comparing different generations in all sports. Would Ali beat Joe Lewis? Would Ted Williams bat .400 against today's pitching? Nobody knows, it's all just speculation and opinion.

OU run ruled UCLA. But all the talking heads say the PAC may get 90% of their league in the tourney. Same with the SEC. In other words, if a league beats itself up everybody wins. But if a team dominates its league, the league is weak. To me, that's nonsense.

Great post, Sooner Cal.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

Master Plan for L. Dale Mitchell and Marita Hynes announced.

http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=31000&ATCLID=211591501

That is exciting, and provides another opportunity for OU fans to contribute to these fine programs and the student-athletes.

“With the master plan complete, we will focus on fund-raising efforts that will allow us to approach the projects prudently. I'm optimistic that donors to our program will see the value and efficiency of these projects and help us see them to completion.”

The full master plan calls for approximately $15 million of work at softball and $10 million at baseball. That work could be phased if necessary. Castiglione added that the timeline for the work is yet to be established, but that the department is anxious to move the projects forward.

 

[SoonerSpock]

I believe we sometimes rely too heavily on stats to predict winners and losers in team sports like softball. Stats are important, of course, but when rating individual players – and teams – I believe the eye test, the way that player or team is performing at this point in time, can be just as important.

Look throughout Division 1 and you'll find plenty of players with higher batting averages than Caleigh Clifton. But how many of those same players with their gaudy BAs can come close to CC's on-base percentage? RBIs are also important, but when a player pads her RBI total by hitting a grand slam with her team down 6-0 in the ninth inning, then are those RBIs really that meaningful?

Records against Top 25 teams? You want and need to beat highly ranked teams in order to have a good RPI, but a 2-1 loss early in the season might become a five-run win later in the year when your team is healthy and playing with a set lineup. I think we all know OU is a better team today than the team that lost 4-3 to Auburn in the season opener.

A pitcher has one really bad performance in 10 starts and gives up six earned runs before leaving the game in the fourth inning. Her ERA balloons over the 3.00 mark as a result. Does that mean she's likely to lose her next game to an opponent whose pitcher has an ERA under 1.50?

I believe there are probably only 6-7 teams that have a reasonable chance of winning the WCWS this year. Oklahoma is on that list, along with a couple of SEC teams, three from the PAC 12 and one from the Big 10. As you can probably guess, my picks have little to do with which teams have the best batting average, ERA or RPI.

This will perhaps seen contradictory to you but statistically it is not. Probability theory upon which betting odds are based are definitive only when applied to a large number of events. Hence the odds predicting a particular single event is almost happenstance.

The foundation of odds is based on the law of large numbers. Therefore the odds are virtually absolute for the gambling casino making money on all the rolls of the dice over time. The individual player can win big on a few rolls of the dice but the longer he rolls the more likely he is to lose. The odds come into play.

The same LLN applies to betting on sporting events. The only way the odds pays off is to always play the odds over a large number of sporting events. What happens on a few events is just like rolling the dice only a few times. Who knows?

If you are expecting the odds to apply for a single or a few sporting events you do not understand the information the odds provide. For the odds (numbers) to truly work for you they must be followed 100% of the time over a large number of events. Understanding a 30% odds of the Sooners winning the WCWS is also 70% odds they will not.

The data below shows the accuracy of the seedings at reaching the Final Four from 1985 until the present. Very linear correlation confirms the quality job done seeding (RPI) committee.


Seeding Appearances
1 52
2 28
3 14
4 13
5 6
7 2
8 5
9 1
10 1
11 3
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0

 

[SoonerSpock]

Gut feeling? Really, Spock? Nice way to mischaracterize an opinion you don't agree with.

And you find the following statement offense? If so I apologize for offending you.

"For certain the statistical data including rpi cannot determine the winner of games but to me it is a better tool for making those comparisons than just a gut feeling from watching a few games"

Get a life poopsie.

No one is trying to offend you. I just find it foolish for an individual to perceive they can watch a few games and know more the all the expert analysis projects. I damn sure know I cannot do it nor many of my sporting experts. But of course you are more than entitled to believe what you want to believe. It is a free country.

But I too am entitled to believe a few observations (eye test) is little more than a gut feel.

 

[scrybe]

And you find the following statement offense? If so I apologize for offending you.

"For certain the statistical data including rpi cannot determine the winner of games but to me it is a better tool for making those comparisons than just a gut feeling from watching a few games"

Get a life poopsie.

No one is trying to offend you. I just find it foolish for an individual to perceive they can watch a few games and know more the all the expert analysis projects. I damn sure know I cannot do it nor many of my sporting experts. But of course you are more than entitled to believe what you want to believe. It is a free country.

But I too am entitled to believe a few observations (eye test) is little more than a gut feel.

Offended? :ez-laugh: Hardly. But who knows, a foolish individual like myself is probably too stupid to know when I'm being insulted.