Statistical Plus/Minus Review: OU vs. OSU, Baylor, MD E. Shore

DSMok1

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It has been several games since I have gotten around to posting a statistical plus/minus review. Sorry about that!

Here, I'll roll the last 3 games in: 2 good games sandwiched around OU's worst game of the season.

The MD Eastern Shore game was a good effort by the Sooners: it helped that this was the worst team they will face this year, but the effort was OU's second-best all year even so. OU can beat up on teams it outclasses, I guess.
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Warren, Willie		14.8	25	6.5
Gallon, Tiny		11.5	21	4.3
Crocker, Tony		6.9	31	3.8
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	4.0	25	1.8
Willis, Ray		3.6	19	1.2
Wright, Ryan		14.0	5	1.2
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-0.5	15	-0.1
Gerber, Beau		-12.3	1	-0.2
Davis, Cade		-1.3	26	-0.6
Franklin, T.J.		-27.6	3	-1.5
Pledger, Steven		-6.1	20	-2.2
Allen, Orlando		-15.1	9	-2.4

In this game, Willie snapped out of his funk and Tiny played very well. TC was his stead self, and we--we had a Ray Willis sighting! WW had 5 assists, 2 turnovers, and 3 steals. He needs to have steals>turnovers!

On to the Baylor game. Ouch. This was the worst game of the year for OU. They played equivalently to Idaho St. or North Carolina A&T--and I say that in all honesty. They played like a -7.3 efficiency differential team. Who played well? Cade Davis and TC again played solidly.
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Davis, Cade		8.5	25	3.7
Crocker, Tony		5.8	32	3.2
Franklin, T.J.		74.8	1	1.3
Fitzgerald, Andrew	0.7	28	0.3
Gerber, Beau		-6.3	1	-0.1
Warren, Willie		-0.5	36	-0.3
Wright, Ryan		-3.9	9	-0.6
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	-4.8	18	-1.5
Willis, Ray		-20.6	5	-1.8
Pledger, Steven		-13.0	15	-3.4
Gallon, Tiny		-11.4	30	-5.9
Baylor:
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Dunn, LaceDarius	17.5	34	10.3
Udoh, Ekpe		11.5	36	7.2
Walton, A		27.8	13	6.2
Carter, Tweety		9.0	39	6.0
Acy, Quincy		2.9	29	1.5
Ellis, Fred		26.3	2	0.9
Sekelja, Dragan		7.8	1	0.1
Crump, Givon		-8.3	1	-0.1
Griffin, Oscar		-10.0	1	-0.2
Jefferson, Cory		-10.0	1	-0.2
Dennis, Nolan		-17.3	2	-0.6
Jones, Anthony		-2.2	30	-1.2
Lomers, Josh		-20.1	11	-3.8
Tiny and Pledger played awfully. Well, Tiny scored 17 points, but he only got 5 rebounds, gave up 4 TOs, and recorded no blocks or steals. Pledger didn't do much in 15 minutes.

The main theme was that no one played well, and no one played really good defense. Zero blocks and 4 steals compared to 11 turnovers? What's that? Baylor had 9 blocks and 7 steals. Cade Davis had 3 of those steals.

Oh--LaceDarius Dunn and Ekpe Udoh are really, really good.

Now on to the OSU game. This was OU's 4th best effort of the season--equivalent to UTEP or Oklahoma St., not Idaho St.
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	9.8	43	6.5
Davis, Cade		10.7	31	5.1
Warren, Willie		3.9	41	2.5
Wright, Ryan		3.7	11	0.6
Crocker, Tony		-0.2	45	-0.1
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-6.9	5	-0.5
Gallon, Tiny		-2.7	35	-1.5
Pledger, Steven		-7.2	14	-1.5
OSU:
Code:
Player	SPM	Min	Contribution
Anderson, James	19.2	32	9.4
Moses, Marshall	4.4	39	2.6
Gulley, Fred	5.8	25	2.2
Penn, Ray	1.6	42	1.0
Page, Keiton	0.8	34	0.4
Franklin, Roger	1.9	6	0.2
Dowell, Reger	-3.4	0	0.0
Sidorakis, Nick	-3.4	0	0.0
Pilgrim, Matt	-5.6	18	-1.5
Muonelo, Obi	-17.4	29	-7.7
This SPM does not fully reflect Tiny Gallon's performance--because he didn't get an assist in the game, the formula doesn't do as well. If he had 1 assist, it would jump to 5.9 for SPM and 3.2 for contribution. (That's not an issue for the season calcs.)

TMG played his second-best game of the year, after the Arizona game. It was a very crisp, efficient performance (other than the missed FTs)--14 points, 4 RBs, 3 assists, and 0 turnovers. (That last was the key!) Cade Davis played ANOTHER solid game, with 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 steals. Cade now has almost TWICE as many steals as any other player on the team. How does 28 steals and 8 turnovers sound? Compared to 16 steals and 61 turnovers for WW? Or 13 steals to 32 TOs for TMG? That is the part Cade plays: defense and efficient, mistake-free offense (in small doses, mostly).

Crocker played all 45 minutes, and put in a mediocre game. He shot poorly, didn't get an assist, but got his customary block and 2 steals. Pledger did very little in his time. Willie played okay, but 7 turnovers is a lot. A LOT.

James Anderson is REALLY GOOD.

And on to the updated season totals!

Code:
[B]Player			SPM	MPG	Contrib	Per 100[/B]
Crocker, Tony		5.4	33.6	49.9	4.5
Davis, Cade		4.8	27.1	35.6	3.2
Gallon, Tiny		3.5	24.9	23.8	2.1
Warren, Willie		2.2	31.1	18.9	1.7
Pledger, Steven		0.3	19.6	1.8	0.2
Hardrick, Kyle		-3.5	0.2	-0.2	0.0
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	-0.3	32.6	-2.6	-0.2
Franklin, T.J.		-14.9	0.8	-3.1	-0.3
Gerber, Beau		-36.3	0.4	-3.7	-0.3
Willis, Ray		-4.9	4.3	-5.6	-0.5
Wright, Ryan		-1.8	14.8	-7.3	-0.7
Allen, Orlando		-8.8	3.9	-9.3	-0.8
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-4.3	10.1	-11.9	-1.1

Crocker and Cade are still playing very solidly. Good rotation players on a good team. Tiny has stabilized--but he needs to be better if this is going to be a good team. Willie has faded even more--he's barely above NCAA average as a player right now. (That ain't good for the preseason POY!) TMG is almost to claw up to 0--he has played his best 6 games after the Arkansas game. Fitzgerald is getting a bit better, but still isn't good. Wright is also improving somewhat. There is still only 1 "good" post player on the team, and that's Tiny. And he has a long ways to go yet.
 
so Tony contributed the second least in Bedlam? Interesting.
 
so Tony contributed the second least in Bedlam? Interesting.

He just wasn't much of a stat-stuffer for this game, but his defense on Obi and Anderson was worth a lot to this team in the win imo.
 
Tony wasnt bad, he played good D. Just wasnt a stellar all around game.
 
Like DSM said, if Tiny had 1 assist it would have jumped way up. He had a good game, outside of missing 2 gimmies.
 
which is why these "stats" are c***

I figured out how to fix that instability problem.

Basically, I run the whole season SPM and then run the whole season without the game in question included--and find the difference. The difference is the contribution in that game!

The results look really good, and less vulnerable to being skewed by statistical vagaries.

Here are OU's results for the 3 games above:
Maryland Eastern Shore:
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Warren, Willie		12.1	25	5.4
Willis, Ray		12.5	19	4.2
Crocker, Tony		5.5	31	3.0
Gallon, Tiny		7.7	21	2.9
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	3.0	25	1.3
Fitzgerald, Andrew	3.0	15	0.8
Wright, Ryan		4.8	5	0.4
Davis, Cade		0.6	26	0.3
Gerber, Beau		-23.3	1	-0.4
Franklin, T.J.		-27.6	3	-1.5
Pledger, Steven		-5.8	20	-2.1
Allen, Orlando		-15.4	9	-2.5
Baylor:
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Crocker, Tony		7.6	32	4.2
Davis, Cade		8.8	25	3.8
Franklin, T.J.		100.1	1	1.7
Gerber, Beau		-19.4	1	-0.3
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-1.9	28	-0.9
Wright, Ryan		-6.0	9	-0.9
Willis, Ray		-22.1	5	-1.9
Warren, Willie		-3.1	36	-1.9
Pledger, Steven		-9.7	15	-2.5
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	-9.3	18	-2.9
Gallon, Tiny		-8.1	30	-4.2
(Okay, T.J.'s numbers are wacky--he drew 2 fouls in 1 minute of play and only has played 12 minutes all year, which messes with his numbers.)
Oklahoma State:
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Davis, Cade		11.4	31	6.1
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	6.2	43	4.6
Gallon, Tiny		3.4	35	2.0
Wright, Ryan		7.5	11	1.4
Pledger, Steven		1.6	14	0.4
Warren, Willie		0.1	41	0.1
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-0.3	5	0.0
Crocker, Tony		-2.9	45	-2.3

Doesn't that look better? This is a much more statistically stable approach.
 
I figured out how to fix that instability problem.

Basically, I run the whole season SPM and then run the whole season without the game in question included--and find the difference. The difference is the contribution in that game!

The results look really good, and less vulnerable to being skewed by statistical vagaries.

Here are OU's results for the 3 games above:
Maryland Eastern Shore:
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Warren, Willie		12.1	25	5.4
Willis, Ray		12.5	19	4.2
Crocker, Tony		5.5	31	3.0
Gallon, Tiny		7.7	21	2.9
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	3.0	25	1.3
Fitzgerald, Andrew	3.0	15	0.8
Wright, Ryan		4.8	5	0.4
Davis, Cade		0.6	26	0.3
Gerber, Beau		-23.3	1	-0.4
Franklin, T.J.		-27.6	3	-1.5
Pledger, Steven		-5.8	20	-2.1
Allen, Orlando		-15.4	9	-2.5
Baylor:
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Crocker, Tony		7.6	32	4.2
Davis, Cade		8.8	25	3.8
Franklin, T.J.		100.1	1	1.7
Gerber, Beau		-19.4	1	-0.3
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-1.9	28	-0.9
Wright, Ryan		-6.0	9	-0.9
Willis, Ray		-22.1	5	-1.9
Warren, Willie		-3.1	36	-1.9
Pledger, Steven		-9.7	15	-2.5
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	-9.3	18	-2.9
Gallon, Tiny		-8.1	30	-4.2
(Okay, T.J.'s numbers are wacky--he drew 2 fouls in 1 minute of play and only has played 12 minutes all year, which messes with his numbers.)
Oklahoma State:
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Davis, Cade		11.4	31	6.1
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	6.2	43	4.6
Gallon, Tiny		3.4	35	2.0
Wright, Ryan		7.5	11	1.4
Pledger, Steven		1.6	14	0.4
Warren, Willie		0.1	41	0.1
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-0.3	5	0.0
Crocker, Tony		-2.9	45	-2.3

Doesn't that look better? This is a much more statistically stable approach.

yes that looks alot better. thanks
 
I like seeing these stats each week. I'm still not sure why Tommy Mason Griffin's plus/minus is always so low. I guess because he plays so many minutes.

I think these are not fair stats for PG's. But I do like seeing them. Thanks for taking the time to do them DSMOK1
 
I like seeing these stats each week. I'm still not sure why Tommy Mason Griffin's plus/minus is always so low. I guess because he plays so many minutes.

I think these are not fair stats for PG's. But I do like seeing them. Thanks for taking the time to do them DSMOK1

I think they are fair enough for PG's... I run this for the whole NCAA and for the whole NBA as well. Chris Paul is #2 in the NBA in SPM and #3 in contribution (Wade plays more minutes). Rondo and Kidd are in the top 10. In the NCAA, 2 of the top 4 are 6'-3" (Jeremy Lin of Harvard and Jackson Emery of BYU--he's a gunner, though). Jon Scheyer, who is sort of a PG I guess, is the clear #1 in SPM in the NCAA.

The big thing for PGs are steals, assist/to, and shooting efficiently. TMG lags in steals quite a bit--Cade gets almost 3 times as many per minute. He is also shooting only 36% on 2 point shots. He also simply doesn't score much.
 
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