Thunder upside?

[playmakr]

Hey Cletus, 5:4 = 4 in 9 chance of winning which equals 44.4%. I used 7:5 which was the latest odds. Same formula.

I know. I didn't say your %'s were wrong. I clearly cited Bovada as my source, try to pay attention.

Guess what? The odds Vegas pays have nothing to do with those teams having an equal shot. Their payout is based on where other Cletus rednecks like you are placing their bets. Nothing more.

Haha the odds have nothing to do with who Vegas sees as the most likely to win? That's a good one. Then why do books use Sagarin and Pomeroy's computer rankings to help formulate power rankings and then ultimately lines? Vegas can tell you right now based on power rankings they derive from these type of computer guys what the line in a Heat/Thunder series would be, long before public/pro betting. C'mon, stop making obviously wrong statements. I'm not some hack idiot you can over run. Where the general public are placing their bets is only one small reason why a book will change its line/odds. And then for you to blame where the line is set and moves based on general public betting, i.e. the cletus rednecks, shows you need a brief education on the matter. I'm happy to provide it.

Books don't react to where the public votes on lines much at all. They wait for big steam bets from professionals then move it accordingly to try to make the other side look more attractive. The public money is too inconsistent and takes a long time to accumulate and the books don't respect it. The big pro bets are what moves lines, not cletus rednecks putting $10 on the Thunder. For you to say they set odds and payouts based on general public betting isn't reality. You're just wrong. Now the exception can be sometimes the big betting pro's will wait for the public to move the line because they know the public usually bets on the over and favorites (the better team) and they take advantage of that 1/2 point move, often because they like to get it off a push line. If a line moves over a 1/2 either way, it wasn't from public betting.

It should also be noted that line movements are also sometimes only because the pro's are trying to trick the book into changing their lines early in the week/timeframe. Place a few small bets to move the line where they want it, bet big when they get it there, and also cancel out those original bets by placing bets on the other side. The public "cletus redneck" money just gets tossed around in all of this, and the books couldn't care less.

So again, for you to say what some "cletus redneck" bets are setting the odds, isn't remotely correct. It's what most average people think, but it's wrong.

As an FYI, if I were to place a bet right now I would take the Clippers, because of the odds. I think the Thunder will win the West, but the value play right now is the Clippers. Although I'm not going to take them at 4/1 like you lolllll

As for the Adrmore reference ... is it supposed to be an insult from an Oklahoma resident that your part of the state is less backwards than another part?

Not in the least. I don't behave in such a way. I try not to consider anyone backwards. I lived on the West Side of Chicago for 22 years, and now Oklahoma for almost 10. Two completely different areas, types of people, political leanings, demographics, and felt comfortable living and socializing with all types of people in both areas. Only haughty weasels like you see things through that type of prism.


So let us review...

Ardmore/Tulsa/OKC/Bartlesville/Ada Bull: wrong on taxes, (thanks Denversooner for his education) wrong on Capital Gains, and now wrong on books. That's a strikeout. All from the most successful, richest, most perfect poster on this board. I smell a rat. A cynic might think you are full of it.

 

[bocabull]

This is simple. You two seem to think 44.44% is a valid representation of the Thunder chance of winning the west. I say it's an equal chance between 5 teams.

I will accept a $100 wager from each of you at 44.4%. If the Thunder win the West I owe each of you $55.60. If they don't each of you owe me $44.40.

Deal?

 

[SoonerBounce13]

well hell if you think they are all equal chances to win, and vegas doesnt, go put down money on each team.

 

[playmakr]

I'll take the Clippers at 11/2, you can have the Rockets or Spurs at 3/1. Loser pays out.

 

[playmakr]

Typical redneck cowards. When it comes time to pony up you change the subject.

I offered you the deal you wanted. Your decline is your own cowardice. $1000 bet, right now. I'll take the Clippers at 11/2 which is their posted odds on Bovada, and you can have the Rockets or Spurs at 3/1, which is what you think their odds should be. If one of our teams hits, the loser pays out. I clearly stated above the Clippers are my value play right now. I don't know what's complicated about this. Put up, or shut up. If everyone of those teams has equal odds, then let's see your bet. I have a paypal account.

And LOL at you celebrating the fruits of QE, as if that will trickle down to most americans. QE is robbing most americans blind. We know it benefits the type of person you pretend to be. But the dream is not dead, whoever thinks that is an idiot. We are poised for an energy boom, and if we pursue tax reform and immigration reform that works, we will take off.

Talk about changing the subject, lol. We await your bet on the Rockets or Spurs. It's what you want, even odds between those 4 teams. I'm happy to give you that. The alternative is you are a coward, and just as fake in your book skills as you are about your life.

so if everything is peachy why do you want to raise taxes?

Bounce, there is no reason to ask him about tax policy. He's been shown he only thinks he understands it. He's been put in his place many times. Denver still has smiling, smug face print in his boot.

So another review....

Owned in taxes by Denver. Owned in Capital Gains. Owned in bookmaking. (I mean lol at saying public betting moves lines, that's a joke) Owned by life by wearing a blue paisley shirt. Owned by spouting off the fruits of QE, all the while forgetting that it hurts his real life and not his life he pretends to have. One has to wonder when this loser will take his ball and go home to Ardmore/Bartlesville/Edmond/Ada/Tulsa.

 

[jmizzy4ou]

Nothing to add other than this thread is PURE GOLD in entertainment factor. PURE GOLD I tell ya!!!! Hahahahahaha....

Name calling and insulting currently: Play > Boca.

Boca had some zingers, but Play killed it with Ardmore Bull. Hahahahaha.....

Seriously, Boca I didn't know you were from Oklahoma. I thought you were from another state. Of course I'm just laughing with you guys, not trying to start a new war. I like Boca and Play, and I really enjoy when you guys have at it about politics, etc.......

I know it drives the mods crazy, but it is good fun on occasion. Funny as heck also. LOL.......

Blue Paisley..... Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha..........

 

[bocabull]

Never mind the fact I've spent a single day of my entire life in Ardmore OK to play golf at Dornick Hills. Play is just a wanna be who will never make it. Conservative states are like Russia, a few oligarchs & the rest suckers at the bottom who are easily manipulated which is exactly what Play is.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Please post pics of your golf trip!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[playmakr]

So, since this is a basketball board, how about we settle it with a game of 1-on-1? To 15, 1's/2's. $1000 bet. Jmizzy can referee.

 

[playmakr]

Okay ElRenoball, time to put up, the playoffs are starting. I'll take the Clippers at 11/2, and you can either take the Spurs or Rockets at 3/1. We'll make the entry $1000, but the loser has to also act as the casino, paying out the winnings, if applicable.

 

[KCRuf/Nek]

There is no problem. I, like anybody with a brain, do not consider Vegas odds efficient. They are simply a function of money flow and we know the money to Vegas is flowing from extremely unsophisticated dopes.

Actually the books are there to bring traffic(table and slot players) into the casino and to bring in equal money on each side and bank the losers' 10%. Most books make about 2% of the casino's take.

 

[bocabull]

Actually the books are there to bring traffic(table and slot players) into the casino and to bring in equal money on each side and bank the losers' 10%. Most books make about 2% of the casino's take.

Exactly. We're saying the same thing. The lines are set to bring in equal wagers (money flow) on either side. It's not the probability of team A or B winning. It's an estimate of the perception of the general goober betting public of who will win and the homer factor as well.

 

[KCRuf/Nek]

Exactly. We're saying the same thing. The lines are set to bring in equal wagers (money flow) on either side. It's not the probability of team A or B winning. It's an estimate of the perception of the general goober betting public of who will win and the homer factor as well.

The last thing the books want is all the money on one side. Or, as in the one SB, a middle. And even though we act like the books don't make money don't cry too hard. Those aren't winning tickets all over the floor.

 

[playmakr]

The lines are set to bring in equal wagers (money flow) on either side. It's not the probability of team A or B winning.

There's a difference between odds and lines.