2025 NCAA Tourney Bracketology

Boom Soon said:
The Vanderbilt game is the season. Lose and they’re out and will stay out. Win and there’s still life.
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Spot on.

Unless all stands pat (which we learned last year, via NC State, is not the case) this is our battle for who may get that last bubble spot out of the SEC.

1738161599521.png

Legit, doesn't get any closer than this.
 
TEvans4Three said:
...this is our battle for who may get that last bubble spot out of the SEC.
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That's really not how it's supposed to work.

I don't trust the committee at all because Vanderbilt got screwed the one time an incompetent committee got caught up in its own politics and very clearly took out a team from the same conference to compensate for a surprise automatic qualifier (2000, details probably not all that interesting). I'll never again say it the committee has to follow their own charter.

But that was Selection Sunday panic and one-off incompetence. I'm not aware of any other instance where the committee made at-large selections based on conference allocation. VU and OU are obviously battling each other on the bubble but no more so than they're battling other teams.

My bigger concern is that UNC's AD is the chair so the Tar Heels will get too much deference in marginal cases.
 
I don’t get how we’re so far behind other teams with similar records. We’re 15-5, not 13-8 and yet we’re way down the list. I guess metrics hate us but we beat 3 top 25 ish teams in the non-conference. All of them are near the top of their conference right now.
 
PhilipVU94 said:
That's really not how it's supposed to work.

I don't trust the committee at all because Vanderbilt got screwed the one time an incompetent committee got caught up in its own politics and very clearly took out a team from the same conference to compensate for a surprise automatic qualifier (2000, details probably not all that interesting). I'll never again say it the committee has to follow their own charter.

But that was Selection Sunday panic and one-off incompetence. I'm not aware of any other instance where the committee made at-large selections based on conference allocation. VU and OU are obviously battling each other on the bubble but no more so than they're battling other teams.

My bigger concern is that UNC's AD is the chair so the Tar Heels will get too much deference in marginal cases.
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You are correct, maybe too much "alluding" in my post as both teams go through the gauntlet of the SEC. IF both teams are relatively even, and fighting for a bubble spot a head-to-head win over one or the other goes a long way into being last 4 in and last 4 out.
 
SunshinePumper said:
I don’t get how we’re so far behind other teams with similar records. We’re 15-5, not 13-8 and yet we’re way down the list. I guess metrics hate us but we beat 3 top 25 ish teams in the non-conference. All of them are near the top of their conference right now.
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You don't get it, or you don't want to get it? We have talked about it for months, and just because some people don't like it doesn't make it untrue: we played a terrible schedule and didn't beat teams as badly as we should have, and our defense is bad. Those three wins would help us if we are near the bubble, but by themselves, they won't get you to that point when the rest of your resume sucks. We have yet to beat a team with a pulse in the SEC, OSU, Providence, and Georgia Tech are crappy teams, and the other 7 wins hurt us more than they help us. If you want to point to our record, then I guess teams from small conferences that go 27-4 should also make the tourney?
 
SunshinePumper said:
I don’t get how we’re so far behind other teams with similar records. We’re 15-5, not 13-8 and yet we’re way down the list. I guess metrics hate us but we beat 3 top 25 ish teams in the non-conference. All of them are near the top of their conference right now.
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We have a better record (quality wins/loss) wise than Baylor, for example...but because we didn't beat the breaks off of those 300+ teams, our efficiency metrics are a bit lower.
 
TEvans4Three said:
You are correct, maybe too much "alluding" in my post as both teams go through the gauntlet of the SEC. IF both teams are relatively even, and fighting for a bubble spot a head-to-head win over one or the other goes a long way into being last 4 in and last 4 out.
Click to expand...
Also feels like there's some "path dependence" around this week's game. I don't know your program well but seems like a fluky 3OT Vanderbilt win could really push y'all's situation past a point of no return. A 3OT OU win isn't as harmful to us because we're a slight underdog and we're already sort of playing with house money. But even so, we then go to Florida (likely loss) home to Texas (which becomes pretty critical if we lose to OU), and then Murderer's Row again (Aub, @TN, @UK).

In this SEC it feels like any time you drop a game it could be the start of a losing streak that spirals out of control.
 
PhilipVU94 said:
Also feels like there's some "path dependence" around this week's game. I don't know your program well but seems like a fluky 3OT Vanderbilt win could really push y'all's situation past a point of no return. A 3OT OU win isn't as harmful to us because we're a slight underdog and we're already sort of playing with house money. But even so, we then go to Florida (likely loss) home to Texas (which becomes pretty critical if we lose to OU), and then Murderer's Row again (Aub, @TN, @UK).

In this SEC it feels like any time you drop a game it could be the start of a losing streak that spirals out of control.
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I didn't put two and two together for you being a Vandy fan, nice and welcome!

Just to add to the the importance of the game for both sides, for you all a Q1 win looks better than a Q2 loss for us. (for now as it stands via the NET rankings)
However the key games we need to win, we seem to lose. Then we will randomly beat Auburn out of nowhere.
 
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