2024 NCAA Tourney Bracketology

[TINY]

Joey brackets dunking on browneye..i mean brownell.

 

[TEvans4Three]

great comment at the beginning of the bubble watch today about this ..
For two straight years with wildly different approaches to nonconference scheduling, the Big 12 has excelled in the NET rankings.

I was going to do a breakdown on this, when I have time, looking back at the previous 5 or so years and OOC scheduling and how it affected the Big12

 

[TEvans4Three]

	2024	2024	2023	2023	2022	2022	2021	2021	2020	2020
Team	NET	OOC SOS	NET	OOC SOS	NET	OOC SOS	NET	OOC SOS	NET	OOC SOS
Iowa St.	8	353	20	198	49	327	232	150	96	84
Baylor	14	117	15	115	4	216	2	258	5	132
Kansas	17	21	9	21	6	49	11	60	2	10
Texas Tech	42	270	63	336	9	347	16	283	22	296
TCU	38	356	28	339	44	298	141	208	93	214
Oklahoma	41	327	68	66	39	222	36	192	46	30
Texas	33	283	7	183	16	343	21	85	70	187
Kansas St	75	204	24	256	74	282	182	256	99	204
Oklahoma St.	112	325	43	145	51	151	29	121	64	53
West Virginia	144	112	25	92	78	168	24	29	17	32
Average	52.4​	236.8​	30.2​	175.1​	37​	240.3​	69.4​	164.2​	51.4​	124.2​
High	144​	356​	68​	339​	78​	347​	232​	283​	99​	296​
Low	8​	21​	7​	21​	4​	49​	2​	29​	2​	10​

Very basic look at teams, NET and their OOC ranking respectively over the last 5 years.



Clean Sheet look at it


Synopsis, raw data shows that overall, our strongest OOC SOS yielded the 3rd best NET results. Our weakest OOC SOS yielded the 2nd best NET results. Data seems to be not in correlation with the weaker OOC means higher NET.

However, a variety of factors could play into all the results above. This is just a basic look at it.

*OOC SOS pulled from KenPom
*NET data pulled from Bracketologists

 

[BoulderSooner]

OU still solidly in

 

[TINY]

OU still solidly in

Win tomorrow and we are golden.

 

[stormspencer]

Win tomorrow and we are golden.

If we are able to win tomorrow, I believe we are a lock for March. Also, a win tomorrow virtually solidifies an 8/9 matchup with Texas again in KC....that is unless things don't get to plan with other games this week.

 

[dksooner]

If we are able to win tomorrow, I believe we are a lock for March. Also, a win tomorrow virtually solidifies an 8/9 matchup with Texas again in KC....that is unless things don't get to plan with other games this week.

Looks like back to back games against the horn, would you rather beat them in austin or KC? Obviously both but say we split? I'd rather win tomorrow and in austin and get a week's rest.

 

[WichitaSooner]

If we are able to win tomorrow, I believe we are a lock for March. Also, a win tomorrow virtually solidifies an 8/9 matchup with Texas again in KC....that is unless things don't get to plan with other games this week.

A win should have us safely in. Notwithstanding preseason projections, it is a bummer that we likely won't finish in the top half of the league in a year where there actually were some bad teams at the bottom. It still blows my mind we dropped two straight home games to middle of the pack teams, at a time when we actually should have had some momentum.

 

[StoopsBros]

 

[Boom Soon]

A win should have us safely in. Notwithstanding preseason projections, it is a bummer that we likely won't finish in the top half of the league in a year where there actually were some bad teams at the bottom. It still blows my mind we dropped two straight home games to middle of the pack teams, at a time when we actually should have had some momentum.

I agree. I will be happy if OU makes the tournament but the overall reflection of the season in April and May will likely be one of disappointment. Simply because of what could have been.

 

[stormspencer]

A win should have us safely in. Notwithstanding preseason projections, it is a bummer that we likely won't finish in the top half of the league in a year where there actually were some bad teams at the bottom. It still blows my mind we dropped two straight home games to middle of the pack teams, at a time when we actually should have had some momentum.

The loss to Tech was the one that got away for sure.....and it will likely cost us an upper division finish.

So I did some scenarios on mred big 12 generator....we are 100% likely to be in the 8/9 game in KC if we only win one of our last two. However, if we win our last two and TCU and Texas both lose their last two, we would make the #7 spot in KC (that's the only scenario for us at #7). If we lose both games and Cincy wins their finale, we would fall to the #10 seed in KC.....yuck.

 

[WichitaSooner]

The loss to Tech was the one that got away for sure.....and it will likely cost us an upper division finish.

So I did some scenarios on mred big 12 generator....we are 100% likely to be in the 8/9 game in KC if we only win one of our last two. However, if we win our last two and TCU and Texas both lose their last two, we would make the #7 spot in KC (that's the only scenario for us at #7). If we lose both games and Cincy wins their finale, we would fall to the #10 seed in KC.....yuck.

So no scenario where we end up 11th and have to play the extra play-in game?

 

[stormspencer]

So no scenario where we end up 11th and have to play the extra play-in game?

You're right....I forgot about KSU. If we lose out, Cincy wins out, and KSU either wins @KU or at home against ISU in the finale, we would fall to 11......that would be the nightmare scenario.

 

[BoulderSooner]

You're right....I forgot about KSU. If we lose out, Cincy wins out, and KSU either wins @KU or at home against ISU in the finale, we would fall to 11......that would be the nightmare scenario.

I actually prefer that scenario if OU loses both this week ..

gives OU a chance to add 2 wins to the resume ..

 

[WichitaSooner]

I actually prefer that scenario if OU loses both this week ..

gives OU a chance to add 2 wins to the resume ..

The first win in that scenario wouldn't help nearly enough to offset the damage that a Q3 loss would do. If we go 0-2 this week, we will have to beat a very good team next week to make it, and adding a game against a crappy WVA or OSU would just be an added obstacle.

 

[BoulderSooner]

The first win in that scenario wouldn't help nearly enough to offset the damage that a Q3 loss would do. If we go 0-2 this week, we will have to beat a very good team next week to make it, and adding a game against a crappy WVA or OSU would just be an added obstacle.

i think there is a real chance that 19-13 OU makes the tourney (with back to back texas losses) ... 20-13 OU would have a slightly better chance of making the dance ..

 

[stormspencer]

i think there is a real chance that 19-13 OU makes the tourney (with back to back texas losses) ... 20-13 OU would have a slightly better chance of making the dance ..

If 19-13 were the case, we would be beyond sweating on Selection Sunday. We might get in still, but would need several other bubble teams falling on their faces as well. If we end up 20-12, I'm sure we are in, but I'm not sure our seed is as high as we think....more likely a 9.

 

[WichitaSooner]

If 19-13 were the case, we would be beyond sweating on Selection Sunday. We might get in still, but would need several other bubble teams falling on their faces as well. If we end up 20-12, I'm sure we are in, but I'm not sure our seed is as high as we think....more likely a 9.

I don't see how we can make it if we lose out. Our resume is so thin in that scenario -- it would basically be wins over ISU and BYU at home. We would have no other wins against the field, and there is a decent chance our KSU win will drop from Q1 if they lose two games this week. Our NET would probably fall close to 50 if we lose three straight games.

 

[BoulderSooner]

I don't see how we can make it if we lose out. Our resume is so thin in that scenario -- it would basically be wins over ISU and BYU at home. We would have no other wins against the field, and there is a decent chance our KSU win will drop from Q1 if they lose two games this week. Our NET would probably fall close to 50 if we lose three straight games.

I would not like the odds if we are 19-13 but we would be right around the bubble .. and it wouldn't surprise me if we made it

 

[stormspencer]

Down to a 10-seed in bracketology. However, Colorado State is a 9-seed, but they are listed on the "last four byes" instead of us.....this is likely due to a conference conflict in a region....which moved us to a 10. Still, we had better have our act together this evening if we want to avoid perspiration.