A Ramble and a Question

[elmocarp]

All I know is that he lead OU to a final four and an elite 8 with tough defense and a sweet stroke. He may not have been the complete package physically, but his hustle and heart defined an era of OU basketball. If you want to call that overrated then so be it.

Don't forget hardwood...

 

[DenverSooner]

I love Hollis as well, but I agree with pretty much everything you wrote. I especially agree with your sentiments regarding Tim McAlister...I loved that dude's game and was in school while he was there so I witnessed it first hand.

I was too and I would not say Tim Mc was overlooked by the fans. He was pretty big time his senior year.

 

[DenverSooner]

I think if Hollis had been 20 pounds or 30 pounds heavier, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

I also think that Tim might be underrated because not as many people got to see him on a regular basis because not as many games were on TV when he was in school. I lived in Tulsa and had little kids so I didn't get to make it to many games while he was in school. I listened on the radio as much as I could, but it's just not the same. People are just more familiar with Hollis than they are with Tim.

That is very true. You used to have to go to the games to see 50% or more of them.

 

[DSMok1]

interesting thread. i agree there was something "missing" about the career of Jeff Webster. lot of stats, but overall i don't know. he reminds me of Ron Mercer in the NBA, he gets his 25 points but you still lose by 10. i overstate for effect, obviously.

i remember at the Olympic Festival something or other hosted in Norman the summer before Webster's FR year...and he drove his coach Jud Heathcote insane in the basketball tournament at LNC. Jud was yelling at him constantly when he was on the floor, exasperated by his play, utterly beside himself.

We have a winner! Webster is extremely overrated. I just analyzed his stats... He was a scorer and nothing else. He didn't score efficiently, didn't get a lot of rebounds for his position, had a ton of turnovers and know assists (almost 4 to 1??), and fouled a lot. He was a prototypical overrated player--everyone thinks he's good but somehow his teams don't win. Primarily because he doesn't score efficiently and is a ball hog. Not to mention the other facets. Six rebounds a game from such a solid forward? Barely more rebounds than Tim McCalister, and playing at an even faster pace? Ouch.

Total career wins produced for Webster: 10.5. And his best two years were his redshirt freshman year (with 3.9) and his senior year (with 4.0). Both Hollis and McCalister had every year above 4.0 wins produced!!!

He's the kind of player that get coaches fired... because everyone thinks he's got star players, but the players aren't really the type that win games. Kind of like a Tracy McGrady.

 

[Smash Williams]

He's the kind of player that get coaches fired... because everyone thinks he's got star players, but the players aren't really the type that win games. Kind of like a Tracy McGrady.

The funny thing is that if you look at PER and win shares, McGrady clearly peaked at age 23 (steadily increasing and declining before and after that age), the year prior to his disastrous final season in Orlando, though I do believe that was the first time that he started having back problems. He experienced the prime of his career from ages 21-23, which has to be some kind of record, especially for a widely proclaimed superstar. I don't mean to de-rail this thread, but I thought that was worth sharing.

 

[quick release]

dsmok,

how exactly do you calculate how many wins a player gets?

 

[DSMok1]

dsmok,

how exactly do you calculate how many wins a player gets?

According to the methods outlined in Wages of Wins, a book which is an interesting source. Essentially, the author calculated exactly what each point and each possession was worth to the team (in wins), then used that to value each statistic in the box score. Running a player's statistics through a formula provides how many wins the player gives. Of course his system if built for the NBA, so the schedules are balanced. I run a pace adjustment for the college game, and adjusted proportionately to how hard the opponents were on offense and defense (per KenPom's efficiencies). I wasn't able to, for instance, adjust offensive and defensive rebounds according to the opposition's rebounding skill; not enough data.

However, for these comparison's historically I do not have opponent stats and thus simply assumed they played a schedule similar in difficulty to this year's OU team. For comparison's sake, OK.

Actually, I use a shortcut over the book method; I calculate Win Score and convert to Wins Produced using his equation. It's quite close, and does provide an excellent comparative tool.

I calculated the Wins Produced of every player in the NCAA this last season. Guess who was first?

 

[SoonerfanTU]

I don't think Hollis was overrated at all. Alot of the reasons have already been spelled out. Hollis wasn't a naturally gifted athlete. He wasn't going to score 45 a night. But he was the leader on a VERY good team.

 

[DSMok1]

I am trying to calculate the wins produced for Alvan Adams... But the stats are scarce. None for assists, turnovers, steals, or blocks... or even minutes played!

Based on my initial evaluation, it looks like OU played at a very fast pace his 3 years... was that the case? Or were there simply a tremendous number of offensive rebounds? How about assists and turnovers... was Alvan a very good passer? Like Blake, over 2 assists per game? How about blocks? Should I estimate about 1.5 blocks per game, or something higher? Did he get steals? Did he play 35 minutes a game, even as a freshman? Those who watched him play, could I get more information? Thanks!

I'm trying to estimate the stats... my first very rough estimate would put him in the top 5 players in the NCAA this year, behind Blake, Blair, and close to John Bryant, Terrence Williams, and Thabeet. Miles above Hollis Price, Tim McCalister, Jeff Webster, Aaron McGee...

In fact, even with Wayman. Perhaps slightly above Wayman, who produced more wins primarily because he played more games. I think Alvan dominated a bit more than Wayman did (probably because of the competition).

 

[sys]

dsmok, those are great. do you have an expanded list that includes all big 12 players from last year? how about from 2007-2008?

 

[Sooner04]

Threadjackers!

 

[DSMok1]

dsmok, those are great. do you have an expanded list that includes all big 12 players from last year? how about from 2007-2008?

I have all of the NCAA from last year, but haven't done 2007-2008. That wouldn't be too hard; I have macros to do it for me w/ Excel.

I'm sorry about the threadjacking, Sooner04... but didn't I already pretty well answer the initial question? You just got me started on a train of thought.... could I calculate the wins produced for all OU players, and make it actually correct to the context of their seasons? How did Alvan Adams compare? I had never thought to calculate historical wins produced...

 

[sys]

I have all of the NCAA from last year

link?

 

[DSMok1]

link?

It's on a spreadsheet on my computer... I can upload the spreadsheet, but it'd be in Excel format.

 

[sys]

It's on a spreadsheet on my computer... I can upload the spreadsheet, but it'd be in Excel format.

i'd love to see it. in whatever format. you can just email it to me if you don't want to upload.

 

[gspence]

This post is overrated. I stopped reading about half way thru.

If you are creating an OU B-Ball HOF and leaving Hollis Price out, I guess only about 5 people are getting in.

Bottom line is he started 4 years, he was (along side) Najera the face of the Kelvin Sampson era of OU basketball and was the best player and leader on a Final 4 and Elite 8 team. Considering we've been to the Final 4 only 4 times and the Elite 8 not too often as well, he is anything but overrated. Sure his stats were not just out of this world but when you are making arguments like this, what is the point? To lessen the accomplishments of a great OU basketball player who has given you no reason to do so.

Pointless.

 

[NickZepp]

Who really deserves it over Hollis if you think about it?

Wayman
King
Adams
Blaylock
Griffin are the easy 5 You can put them in any more(although Wayman is the top in my book but those are the top 5.

Those are the ones I put clearly over him. The rest aren't near as clear cut. Maybe put Grant, maybe Najera, then to me it's Lester Lane, and maybe T Mac but there's no way I keep Hollis out of the top 10 all time at OU In fact I probably put him just behind Najera but that's a toss up too. And it may even be tough to keep out a guy like Quannas White because he was such a tough point guard.

 

[sanguinetti]

Who really deserves it over Hollis if you think about it?

Wayman
King
Adams
Blaylock
Griffin are the easy 5 You can put them in any more(although Wayman is the top in my book but those are the top 5.

Those are the ones I put clearly over him. The rest aren't near as clear cut. Maybe put Grant, maybe Najera, then to me it's Lester Lane, and maybe T Mac but there's no way I keep Hollis out of the top 10 all time at OU In fact I probably put him just behind Najera but that's a toss up too. And it may even be tough to keep out a guy like Quannas White because he was such a tough point guard.

Gar Heard. Hollis is in to me, so that's no biggie. but, Gar Heard.

 

[NickZepp]

Gar Heard. Hollis is in to me, so that's no biggie. but, Gar Heard.

Probably have to consider Clifford Ray too. Both are great players but I wouldn't put either one above Hollis anyway. I was trying to think of guys I can see putting above Hollis.

 

[elmocarp]

Wasn't Gar something like the #3 pick in the draft?