No, not really. I don't bet sports. But, I try to keep up. It looks like Alabama broke at about a 6 1/2 pt. favorite and enough early money has come in on OU to move the line down to Alabama by 5 points. Personally, I think we will run them out of the gym.
Alabama is huge favorite over OU
- Thread starter garyeb2
- Start date
That is the most naïve thing I have ever heard anyone say on the topic of sports betting.
CoachTalk
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2009
- Messages
- 11,757
- Reaction score
- 5,326
WOW. Vegas knows the most about the game. Officials, coaches, players... EVERYTHING.
They were outrebounded by a 5 guard Western Georgia the other night. Out quicked pretty bad too. Their coach in the post game press conference was lamenting about his lack of a bench. He didn't even have a dependable 6th man.
I know that we have problems too. But, all but a handful of our opponents have issue's to deal with. And besides, I like our coaching staff.
pnkranger
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2008
- Messages
- 3,899
- Reaction score
- 654
Gary, I agree with what you've said. I also don't think you can underestimate the size of our guard corps. Should be a good matchup between Woodard and Releford.
LOL @ Vegas knows everything. You fellas obviously don't understand the rigged game Vegas plays. The entire odds making system is built around sentiment & the house advantage.
Here's what Vegas knows, when you win they pay you $100, when you lose they collect $110-120. The lines are not based on an analysis of the players, coaches or officials. The lines are based on the expected $ volume wagered on each participant given a spread. If Vegas thinks OU will win by 10 but their models, which are based on betting history, show that a line of Alabama -6.5 is most likely to produce equal amounts bet on either side, they put the line at Alabama -6.5. If more $ comes in on OU they slide the line down to 5 or whatever it takes to even out the book & ensure guaranteed profit.
Here's what Vegas knows, when you win they pay you $100, when you lose they collect $110-120. The lines are not based on an analysis of the players, coaches or officials. The lines are based on the expected $ volume wagered on each participant given a spread. If Vegas thinks OU will win by 10 but their models, which are based on betting history, show that a line of Alabama -6.5 is most likely to produce equal amounts bet on either side, they put the line at Alabama -6.5. If more $ comes in on OU they slide the line down to 5 or whatever it takes to even out the book & ensure guaranteed profit.
You could be right about that matchup. But, they might sic Buddy on him.
DenverSooner
New member
- Joined
- Nov 5, 2008
- Messages
- 11,099
- Reaction score
- 0
I agree casinos only like bets that assure they will win. With a book they are not even trying to bet. They just want the juice. However, I think the people that set lines know a lot about the teams, etc. They are right or darn close far too often not to know a lot.
Let me help you some. On a superficial level you are somewhat accurate. But, only somewhat. Let's use your example. If a Las Vegas sports book thinks a team will win by 10, using every scrap of available information, they will probably put the line out at 10. Based on past histories they might shade it a point or so based on sentiment. But, not much and not often. There is a risk in doing that.
The risk is that the biggest and best sports betters in the country don't bet on sentiment. They move large amounts of money into bad lines. The object of the line is to get equal amounts of money on both sides. The best and easiest way to do that is to start where the best information based handicapping leads them. When they have to move a line to get the books balanced, they run the risk being middled. You understand that term don't you? It is a situation that for instance they put a line out at 6 then had to move it to 8 to get in balance. It is a situation that if the game comes at 6 or 8 they would push one side and lose the other. If the game comes exactly at 7 they would lose both sides. They don't like that.
Are you expecting a huge turnout or something? If so that's awesome
Certainly not.
Especially with the 4 pm start.
But I assume there will be a good number of OU fans there. The Baylor game being in Waco last night probably helps.
Similar threads
