pnkranger
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Win against WVU should move us into last four out. Win against KSU should move us into last 4 in. Win against Baylor in tourney gets us out of play in game.
Bubble Watch catch all ..
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Win against WVU should move us into last four out. Win against KSU should move us into last 4 in. Win against Baylor in tourney gets us out of play in game.
hoopsaustin
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I belieeeeeeve
BoulderSooner
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i agree
BoulderSooner
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lunardi is not very good at bracketology
OrlandoSooner
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Yep - it is always going to be a factor. The 2 point losses to KU and UT still sting.
WichitaSooner
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We certainly aren’t in the tournament at this point, and I think we are at least a few spots away. That said, I’d urge you to look to any of the more accurate guys than Lunardi for the most accurate info.
Jerry palm doesn't even list us as a bubbke team.
Where do the accurate ones have us?
No kidding, be going into Saturday trying to get our 9th conference win. Not included overtime loss to tcu
WichitaSooner
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We are out according to everyone, and I don’t think it’s especially close. I personally don’t think winning Saturday will get us in. But lots of sites don’t rank teams as next four out, etc. I think it’s more helpful to read things like the Bubble Watch on The Athletic. It basically gives a rundown of the teams in the mix and what they need to do to work their way in. The reason I don’t worry about the specific numbers is because teams have such different remaining schedules. For instance, we may be considered behind a team from an inferior league right now, but if we win our next two games, it would be two Quad 1 wins, one of which would be over a top 5 team. Other teams just don’t have any shot at picking up those kinds of wins.
Again, I think it is all moot because I don’t see us winning Saturday. But there are a lot of better sources than Lunardi. He just has the biggest platform.
stormspencer
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Since we beat WV last night, it actually took a Q-1 win away from us because they dropped out of the top 75. We are now 2-11 in Q-1 games....ugh. Based on trends and our NET ranking (currently 47), I think we have to win in Manhattan and win 2 in KC to feel safe.....which ain't happening.
I agree we need to beat KSU, and then win two games to feel safe, but there’s no reason we can’t do it. It’s March…anything can happen.
Indeed WF!!
I think I’ll die on the beat KSU and win one in KC and they are in hill.
If we get to 18-14, adding two Q1 wins with one of those being over Baylor or Tech (high seeds in the Tourney) then I think we’d be in even if we lose the next game to whoever. Beating KSU would push us more towards that “first 8 out” area— then a win over a top team would push us in. I’d be very surprised if we did that and missed the Dance.
AltSooner33
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I know what most think of Lunardi, but we still aren’t even in his last 12 out.
We'll see how it looks after we beat the kittens but seems like we may have to make it to the big 12 championship game to feel good.
Here's another way to look at our chances. If we lose to KSU, we'll probably have to win the Conference Tournament, so let's assume we beat KSU and head into the conference tournament at 17-14.
After the Conference Tournament:
17 wins - less than 5% chance of making the tourney
18 wins - 25-33% chance of making the tourney
19 wins - 67-75% chance of making the tourney
Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong. For those who are more optimistic, I do have a history of err-ing on the side of caution and under-seed OU (but never more than one spot).
After the Conference Tournament:
17 wins - less than 5% chance of making the tourney
18 wins - 25-33% chance of making the tourney
19 wins - 67-75% chance of making the tourney
Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong. For those who are more optimistic, I do have a history of err-ing on the side of caution and under-seed OU (but never more than one spot).
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