Bubble Watch catch all ..

[hoopsaustin]

I think I’ll die on the beat KSU and win one in KC and they are in hill.

If we get to 18-14, adding two Q1 wins with one of those being over Baylor or Tech (high seeds in the Tourney) then I think we’d be in even if we lose the next game to whoever. Beating KSU would push us more towards that “first 8 out” area— then a win over a top team would push us in. I’d be very surprised if we did that and missed the Dance.

We will die on this hill together

 

[TINY]

We will die on this hill together

I am confident we would be in at 18-15 with a win at kstate. I don’t think we would be in if we lose at kstate and win 2 in tournament, though. It’s all about exorcising the demons in Manhattan. If we don’t win in ****tle apple then we got win the tourney.

 

[StoopsBros]

Oregon 67
Washington 78

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/SeanPaulCBB/status/1499611679339941898?s=20&t=KabjQ8sloMgV5SakEjTkcA[/TWEET]

 

[AltSooner33]

Oregon 67
Washington 78

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/SeanPaulCBB/status/1499611679339941898?s=20&t=KabjQ8sloMgV5SakEjTkcA[/TWEET]

Michigan lost bigly at home tonight too.

 

[OUSKINS]

I am confident we would be in at 18-15 with a win at kstate. I don’t think we would be in if we lose at kstate and win 2 in tournament, though. It’s all about exorcising the demons in Manhattan. If we don’t win in ****tle apple then we got win the tourney.

I don’t think that’s quite right. If we lose in Manhattan, I think 3 tourney wins would do it— wouldn’t necessarily have to win all four. Either way is really a super long shot of course.

Best bet is still to find a way in Manhattan and then win one game in KC and cross your fingers.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Here's another way to look at our chances. If we lose to KSU, we'll probably have to win the Conference Tournament, so let's assume we beat KSU and head into the conference tournament at 17-14.

After the Conference Tournament:

17 wins - less than 5% chance of making the tourney
18 wins - 25-33% chance of making the tourney
19 wins - 67-75% chance of making the tourney

Feel free to tell me where I'm wrong. For those who are more optimistic, I do have a history of err-ing on the side of caution and under-seed OU (but never more than one spot).

i think 19 wins makes it 100%

18 wins makes it 75-90%

17 wins is about 25%

athletic update from an hour ago has OU as "next 4 out"

 

[StoopsBros]

a couple of important games

Bradley vs Loyola IL - MVC tourney. 2:30 pm CT. Loyola -6.

Richmond @ St Bonaventure. 6 pm CT. Bonnies -3.5.

 

[TINY]

a couple of important games

Bradley vs Loyola IL - MVC tourney. 2:30 pm CT. Loyola -6.

Richmond @ St Bonaventure. 6 pm CT. Bonnies -3.5.

Yessir, Loyola definitely needs to win that tourney. They are in regardless so need to keep it a 1 bid league.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Yessir, Loyola definitely needs to win that tourney. They are in regardless so need to keep it a 1 bid league.

i don't think they are a lock if they lose today .. and they are not the 1 seed in their league

 

[WichitaSooner]

i don't think they are a lock if they lose today .. and they are not the 1 seed in their league

Loyola probably needs to make the final to be an at large team.

 

[hoopsaustin]

a couple of important games

Bradley vs Loyola IL - MVC tourney. 2:30 pm CT. Loyola -6.

Richmond @ St Bonaventure. 6 pm CT. Bonnies -3.5.

Thanks for doing these. Keep them coming

 

[hoopsaustin]

i don't think they are a lock if they lose today .. and they are not the 1 seed in their league

So we cheering for or against loyola?

 

[BoulderSooner]

So we cheering for or against loyola?

against today ..... if they win cheer for them to win the conf tourney ..

 

[BoulderSooner]

the Athletic has 18 teams left for 11 spots (this does not account for bid thieves ie one bid leagues having a champ possible lose or a team out winning a big conf tournament) ESPN has 24 teams for 12 spots ..


The Athletic =A
ESPN =E
* = new

Team Net/SOS Record Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4

UNC 38/68 AE 22-8 1-7 4-0 12-0 5-1
VT 32/86 AE 19-11 1-5 4-4 8-2 6-0
Miami 58/76 AE 21-9 4-1 5-5 8-3 4-0
*Notre Dame 52/67 AE 20-9 2-6 3-2 10-1 5-0

OU 46/5 AE 16-14 2-11 6-2 2-1 6-0

Xavier 37/23 AE 17-12 5-9 4-2 5-1 3-0
Creighton 60/40 AE 20-9 5-5 4-3 5-1 6-0

Michigan 34/10 AE 16-13 4-8 3-3 5-1 4-0
Indiana 45/53 AE 18-11 3-6 3-4 4-0 8-0
Rutgers 75/32 AE 17-12 5-5 3-4 2-2 6-1

Oregon 66/50 E 18-12 3-4 4-5 4-3 6-0 (now eliminated per the Athletic)

Florida 51/49 AE 19-11 2-8 4-2 6-0 7-1
* TAMU 56/64 E 19-11 2-8 3-1 5-2 8-0

Memphis 42/76 AE 18-9 3-3 3-4 8-2 4-0
Smu 48/104 AE 21-7 2-2 3-3 9-1 7-1

Loyola Chicago 29/115 AE 21-7 2-2 3-4 7-1 9-0
North Texas 39/138 AE 21-4 1-1 5-2 4-1 11-0
BYU 53/65 AE 19-9 4-5 3-3 3-0 9-1
VCU 49/97 AE 21-7 2-2 4-4 11-1 4-0
San Diego State 27/69 E 20-7 4-7 3-0 6-0 7-0
San Francisco 26/81 E 22-8 3-5 5-2 5-0 9-1
South Dakota St 71/241 E 25-4 0-2 2-0 10-1 13-1
*Wyoming 47/95 AE 22-7 4-4 5-1 3-2 10-0
*Dayton 54/125 E 21-9 2-2 6-3 4-1 9-3

updated

 

[TINY]

against today ..... if they win cheer for them to win the conf tourney ..

I’m not sure I agree with this. There is no other MVC team who has a chance at an at large aside from Loyola. Therefore I am cheering for Loyola because we need to guarantee it is a 1-bid league.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I’m not sure I agree with this. There is no other MVC team who has a chance at an at large aside from Loyola. Therefore I am cheering for Loyola because we need to guarantee it is a 1-bid league.

Good point. Best case would be them winning the tournament, but if they don't, the earlier they lose, the better.

 

[61sooner]

NIT 75%
NCAA:
If OU were to get in as say 14 seed, it'll be a Sooner bloodbath. Prefer not going to see a 20 point loss.

 

[WichitaSooner]

NIT 75%
NCAA:
If OU were to get in as say 14 seed, it'll be a Sooner bloodbath. Prefer not going to see a 20 point loss.

I’d rather lose by 1,000 in the NCAA tournament than play in the NIT.

 

[AltSooner33]

NIT 75%
NCAA:
If OU were to get in as say 14 seed, it'll be a Sooner bloodbath. Prefer not going to see a 20 point loss.

Might not win, but I don’t know that there’s a lot of teams that would be guaranteed to give us a blood bath on a neutral court.

 

[WTSooner]

I don't think it'll happen, but IF OU misses out on the NCAA Tourney, I hope we turn down the NIT. I just don't see the benefit. This team looks worn out. Moser needs to start recruiting (transfers). A few extra games against mediocre teams isn't going to do anything positive for our program or next year's team.