Flopper to the Celtics with the 6th Pick

[Smash Williams]

I don't recall ever making any mention of Smarts summer league stats

I don’t recall ever claiming that you did. Others did. If you were not one of them, that part doesn’t apply to you.

I agree there is some confirmation bias taking place, who cares?

Translation 1): people are using summer league stats as further evidence of their beliefs regarding Smart’s NBA future

I consider every players summer league stats to be less than meaningless

Translation 2): we shouldn’t put any weight into summer league stats

Based on those two things, you acknowledge that people are giving meaning to stats that are meaningless.

So this...

I would contend that your premise of overemphasizing summer league performance is highly inaccurate.

...completely contradicts your other statements.

making it even funnier that you looked up Durants to "prove" the avg OU fan bias.

I wasn't trying to "prove" fan bias. People don't like Marcus Smart for a number of reasons, but pretty much everyone here will admit that being an OU fan plays a part in it. There is nothing to prove there.

I was using Durant's summer league performance to illustrate something that you also claim to believe: that summer league stats don't mean much.

 

[NMSooner'80]

I don't dislike Marcus Smart I dislike the incredible hype machine that for unknown reasons surrounded him. How are Sooner fans supposed to feel when we're subjected to a Marcus Smart "highlight" reel towards the end of an OU Bedlam win when Smart was a complete non-factor?


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Sometimes I think Smart is related, in some fashion, to Darnell Valentine. He had a great freshman year, and a great senior year at Kansas, but he was mediocre in between. OU fans of my generation hated him because of the hype. One year he made a Basketball Weekly (now defunct) All-America second team, and his numbers weren't as good as Raymond Whitley's. Whitley, when he was at OU and healthy, never got much pub, and he deserved lots of it.

 

[WTSooner]

Not to mention, as these leagues/games play out, Smart is hardly the only top prospect that struggled shooting the ball. Parker. Wiggins. Vonleh. Gordon. Exum. All have struggle quite a bit.

The guy shooting it the best? Dougie McBuckets. That kid is going to end up being one of the top 5-7 guys in this class, maybe better. I never really understood those that thought he would struggle to score in the NBA. I don't think he will.

 

[MercedeSooner]

Not to mention, as these leagues/games play out, Smart is hardly the only top prospect that struggled shooting the ball. Parker. Wiggins. Vonleh. Gordon. Exum. All have struggle quite a bit.

The guy shooting it the best? Dougie McBuckets. That kid is going to end up being one of the top 5-7 guys in this class, maybe better. I never really understood those that thought he would struggle to score in the NBA. I don't think he will.

If Wally Szczerbiak could make it no reason he can't. Maybe not the best situation for him early on though since we know he's going to struggle to defend and that doesn't jive too well on the Bulls who are very deep.

 

[steverocks35]

Not to mention, as these leagues/games play out, Smart is hardly the only top prospect that struggled shooting the ball. Parker. Wiggins. Vonleh. Gordon. Exum. All have struggle quite a bit.

The guy shooting it the best? Dougie McBuckets. That kid is going to end up being one of the top 5-7 guys in this class, maybe better. I never really understood those that thought he would struggle to score in the NBA. I don't think he will.

Right, and Smart might be a ten time all-star, but we can only report what happens on the court, and in the Summer League he couldn't throw it in the ocean. **Shrugs**, like I said I only followed him out of offseason boredom and curiosity.

 

[Section31]

My thoughts about Smart are based off him not really having great measurables vs what he does well AND his obvious character problems. Has little to do with where he played.

 

[WTSooner]

My thoughts about Smart are based off him not really having great measurables vs what he does well AND his obvious character problems. Has little to do with where he played.

What measurables are those? Because on paper (ie, his measurements and testing results), I think he stands out. If he shot it better, he'd have been a top 3 pick, most likely.

 

[Section31]

What measurables are those? Because on paper (ie, his measurements and testing results), I think he stands out. If he shot it better, he'd have been a top 3 pick, most likely.

He's 6'2" with SG skills, but doesn't shoot it that well. He's not an NBA PG, IMO.

 

[BCSooners]

He's 6'2" with SG skills, but doesn't shoot it that well. He's not an NBA PG, IMO.

He was drafted to be a PG, what SG skills are you've takkinf about? Bc he definitely can't shoot right now

 

[Smash Williams]

He's 6'2" with SG skills, but doesn't shoot it that well. He's not an NBA PG, IMO.

He's 6'2" without shoes, but I doubt he's going to play with bare feet and defend with the top of his head. In terms of functional size, he measured out well above average.

Smart has a 6'9.25" wingspan.

The average wingspan for PGs drafted in the Top 15: 6'5.3"

(And that's overstating the true average, because that number includes guys who primarily play on the wing, such as Tyreke Evans, Dwyane Wade, and Brandon Roy)

The average wingspan for SGs drafted in the Top 15: 6'8.3"

Joe Johnson and Klay Thompson are considered big NBA wings. Their wingspans? 6'9". Tony Allen? Also 6'9".

Smart has a 8'3" standing reach.

The average standing reach for PGs drafted in the Top 15: 8'0.7"

The average standing reach for SGs drafted in the Top 15: 8'4"

NBA positions are about who you defend more than they're about fitting an arbitrarily defined set of skills without consideration for roster composition. The league has a lot of PGs who aren't classic distributors, SGs who aren't great shooters, etc. Defensively, Smart shouldn't have a lot of trouble with PGs or SGs.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about Smart: his shooting accuracy(obviously), his shot selection, and his temper (we don't know if it's something he'll grow out of as he gets older, or if it's a static trait). But his measurables and his overall statistical profile (most advanced metric rating systems love him) are more than fine. I don't think he'll be a superstar, but I'd be surprised if he were a complete bust, especially now that we know where he'll be playing. Boston is a good situation for him, not necessarily in terms of personnel fit (they're more of a collection of assets than actual team), but because he's going from Travis Ford to Brad Stevens. Maybe he didn't live up to the hype, but he was a very productive player in college in spite of playing for someone who's widely recognized as a terrible coach.

 

[Section31]

He was drafted to be a PG, what SG skills are you've takkinf about? Bc he definitely can't shoot right now

I should have just said he doesn't have NBA PG skills, and tries to be a scorer, thus being more like a SG. That's kinda my point, he's really neither. Primary skills of a PG, should be ball handling, offensive facilitator and passing skills. He's not particularly great at any of that. Can he be a defensive stopper? Maybe. He's not shown that ability to consistently do it yet.

My point was more about people simply thinking everyone's opinion about him was due to where he went to school. That's just not true, IMO.

 

[Section31]

He's 6'2" without shoes, but I doubt he's going to play with bare feet and defend with the top of his head. In terms of functional size, he measured out well above average.

Smart has a 6'9.25" wingspan.

The average wingspan for PGs drafted in the Top 15: 6'5.3"

(And that's overstating the true average, because that number includes guys who primarily play on the wing, such as Tyreke Evans, Dwyane Wade, and Brandon Roy)

The average wingspan for SGs drafted in the Top 15: 6'8.3"

Joe Johnson and Klay Thompson are considered big NBA wings. Their wingspans? 6'9". Tony Allen? Also 6'9".

Smart has a 8'3" standing reach.

The average standing reach for PGs drafted in the Top 15: 8'0.7"

The average standing reach for SGs drafted in the Top 15: 8'4"

NBA positions are about who you defend more than they're about fitting an arbitrarily defined set of skills without consideration for roster composition. The league has a lot of PGs who aren't classic distributors, SGs who aren't great shooters, etc. Defensively, Smart shouldn't have a lot of trouble with PGs or SGs.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about Smart: his shooting accuracy(obviously), his shot selection, and his temper (we don't know if it's something he'll grow out of as he gets older, or if it's a static trait). But his measurables and his overall statistical profile (most advanced metric rating systems love him) are more than fine. I don't think he'll be a superstar, but I'd be surprised if he were a complete bust, especially now that we know where he'll be playing. Boston is a good situation for him, not necessarily in terms of personnel fit (they're more of a collection of assets than actual team), but because he's going from Travis Ford to Brad Stevens. Maybe he didn't live up to the hype, but he was a very productive player in college in spite of playing for someone who's widely recognized as a terrible coach.

Is he your brother? I never said he sucked, just pointing out that he's really got some OBVIOUS shortcomings.

 

[steverocks35]

I should have just said he doesn't have NBA PG skills, and tries to be a scorer, thus being more like a SG. That's kinda my point, he's really neither. Primary skills of a PG, should be ball handling, offensive facilitator and passing skills. He's not particularly great at any of that. Can he be a defensive stopper? Maybe. He's not shown that ability to consistently do it yet.

My point was more about people simply thinking everyone's opinion about him was due to where he went to school. That's just not true, IMO.

My observation is that he's a tough, scrappy, hard-working player, but he's also a tweener, and as such he's a pretty big risk as the #6 pick in the draft. I could definitely be wrong, he could turn into the next Gary Payton or he could be the next Harold Miner. Time will tell.

 

[MercedeSooner]

My observation is that he's a tough, scrappy, hard-working player, but he's also a tweener, and as such he's a pretty big risk as the #6 pick in the draft. I could definitely be wrong, he could turn into the next Gary Payton or he could be the next Harold Miner. Time will tell.

Have you seen the quality and success factor of lottery picks in recent history ? Smart is far from a risk when you consider the kinds of players who are being drafted early on who barely even see the court in their NBA careers.

 

[steverocks35]

Have you seen the quality and success factor of lottery picks in recent history ? Smart is far from a risk when you consider the kinds of players who are being drafted early on who barely even see the court in their NBA careers.

Other lottery picks not living up to expectations doesn't mitigate Marcus Smart's risk. I'm pretty sure any player that a team invests a large amount of money in before he steps on the courst is a risk, except maybe guys like LeBron James and Tim Duncan (barring injury).

 

[WaymanFan]

Other lottery picks not living up to expectations doesn't mitigate Marcus Smart's risk.

I understand your point, but you need an apple-apple comparison of previous #6 overall picks. The bar for #6 overall picks in the NBA Draft over the past quarter century couldn't possibly be any lower. OU's only true NBA "bust" was Stacey King who was the #6 overall pick in the 1989 Draft. Since then, most of the #6 overall picks have been similar, including a Poke, Bryant Reeves. Some of the #6 overall picks were so bad, most of us have never even heard of them.

Damian Lillard has only been in the NBA two years, and he's already one of the 5 best #6 picks since '89, and that assumes he never plays another NBA game. The best? Probably Antoine Walker, who most Celtics fans don't have a lot of good to say about. If Antoine Walker is your bar, it's an incredibly low bar.

 

[steverocks35]

I understand your point, but you need an apple-apple comparison of previous #6 overall picks. The bar for #6 overall picks in the NBA Draft over the past quarter century couldn't possibly be any lower. OU's only true NBA "bust" was Stacey King who was the #6 overall pick in the 1989 Draft. Since then, most of the #6 overall picks have been similar, including a Poke, Bryant Reeves. Some of the #6 overall picks were so bad, most of us have never even heard of them.

Damian Lillard has only been in the NBA two years, and he's already one of the 5 best #6 picks since '89, and that assumes he never plays another NBA game. The best? Probably Antoine Walker, who most Celtics fans don't have a lot of good to say about. If Antoine Walker is your bar, it's an incredibly low bar.

I don't know, Chris Kaman was a good player, Brandon Roy was a really good player kind of derailed by injury. Shane Battier wasn't a bust.

Some of these other #6 picks were pretty ridiculous, Jonny Flynn was a really dumb pick, especially after you already picked Rubio, they just wasted the pick. Also Yi Jianlan, what was that all about, lol!

On a side note: What the heck was Memphis thinking drafting Thabeet 2nd overall? I think that's a clear case of the hype growing bigger than the player.

 

[WaymanFan]

I don't know, Chris Kaman was a good player, Brandon Roy was a really good player kind of derailed by injury. Shane Battier wasn't a bust.

I didn't say they were all busts. Tom Gugliatta and Wally Szczerbiak were decent as well. Still 17-18 guys out of 25 who never panned out coupled with only one possibly great player (Lillard), indicates the Celtics didn't exactly take "a huge gamble" on Marcus Smart.

What's scary is the apparent lack of NBA talent (or scouting) when there is only one great player as the #6 overall in a span of 25 years.

 

[campbest]

He's 6'2" without shoes, but I doubt he's going to play with bare feet and defend with the top of his head. In terms of functional size, he measured out well above average.

Smart has a 6'9.25" wingspan.

The average wingspan for PGs drafted in the Top 15: 6'5.3"

(And that's overstating the true average, because that number includes guys who primarily play on the wing, such as Tyreke Evans, Dwyane Wade, and Brandon Roy)

The average wingspan for SGs drafted in the Top 15: 6'8.3"

Joe Johnson and Klay Thompson are considered big NBA wings. Their wingspans? 6'9". Tony Allen? Also 6'9".

Smart has a 8'3" standing reach.

The average standing reach for PGs drafted in the Top 15: 8'0.7"

The average standing reach for SGs drafted in the Top 15: 8'4"

NBA positions are about who you defend more than they're about fitting an arbitrarily defined set of skills without consideration for roster composition. The league has a lot of PGs who aren't classic distributors, SGs who aren't great shooters, etc. Defensively, Smart shouldn't have a lot of trouble with PGs or SGs.

There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about Smart: his shooting accuracy(obviously), his shot selection, and his temper (we don't know if it's something he'll grow out of as he gets older, or if it's a static trait). But his measurables and his overall statistical profile (most advanced metric rating systems love him) are more than fine. I don't think he'll be a superstar, but I'd be surprised if he were a complete bust, especially now that we know where he'll be playing. Boston is a good situation for him, not necessarily in terms of personnel fit (they're more of a collection of assets than actual team), but because he's going from Travis Ford to Brad Stevens. Maybe he didn't live up to the hype, but he was a very productive player in college in spite of playing for someone who's widely recognized as a terrible coach.

Solid post here.

Don't think the Brad Stevens angle gets enough play, he will help quite a bit.

 

[WTSooner]

Not that I particularly like defending this kid (though I am a Celtics' fan), but he had a pretty solid 1st NBA game last night.

3-7 from the floor, 10 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 steals. No turnovers. Played 28 minutes. And had the highest +/- of any C's player last night.