No way is too strong. It is possible that OU is a top 25 team. I think it is a given that M'Baye is a going to make a big impact. If Hield or Hornbeak makes a big impact, OU could be a top 25 team.
What if Neal shoots at 40% next season from 3 point range? He had a horrible stretch this season and still shot at 33% on the year. What if Hield shoots at 37% from 3 point range next season?
What if Osby and M'Baye both shoot at 37% from 3 point range for the season with a fairly solid number of attempts. Osby shot 39% this season but took very few attempts.
What if OU signs a juco player that actually pays attention and realizes he has a great opportunity at OU because they desperately need a shooter? Jackson paid attention and went to Baylor because they had a big front line.
If OU has some 3 point shooting to go with Pledger, they will be a good team.
The odds of the things happening that you mentioned above are so slim. M'Baye shot 11% and 16% from 3 against Mountain West competition, and you suggest 37% is reasonable? Not sure, but I don't think OU has had too many freshmen guards come in and shoot 37% from 3 as true freshmen. I'm too lazy to do all the homework on this, but a quick glance at Soonerstats.com appears to support my claim.
If M'Baye starts on the wing, he won't help much, if at all, on the boards. That is still a bit on an issue. And I'm not sure how much team defense is going to improve either. Sure the new guys are more athletic, but I don't expect freshmen to come in and play above average defense either. And the older guys, especially Fitz, simply don't have the athleticism to improve much. Same with Grooms on offense. You really expect a 22 year old kid to dramatically change is outside shot over one offseason? Some guys can't shoot, and no amount of practice will change that. Grooms may improve some, but I certainly don't expect much more from him next year.
I think we will be improved, but suggesting that being a top 25 team is anything more than a minor miracle, I don't get that. The pieces aren't there, unless we land a stud to fill one of those last two scholarships.
As for Neal shooting 40% from 3, you might want to go back and look at the list of OU players that have managed that. Not too many, and the ones that did were significantly better shooters, and players in general, than Neal. No offense to the kid, but I don't see that happening either.