MBB Transfer Portal Thread: Moser Year 4

[MJSooner]

Why is every argument about "NIL" comparing us to top 15 schools? That isn't what those of us complaining our asking for. I get it, we don't have the resources in place to "buy" a top 15 roster. That isn't what I'm complaining about. What I'm complaining about is that I feel like we have the resources, and heck, even the talent on campus, to be a top 30ish team. And yet, per Ken Pom, we've finished top 30 by his rankings exactly ONE time, and oddly enough, that was his first season with OU. Only downhill since then.

Somebody should figure out where our "roster talent" ranks using the latest recruiting rankings (ie, using transfer ratings for transfers). No way OU is outside the top 30-35. It's hard because transfers don't have numeric rankings, only star ratings, so that is probably what has to be used. I thought 247 had a page that ranked rosters by recruiting rankings, but I can't find it.

Where did I say ANYWHERE in my post, or anywhere on this board, about the need for our NIL to be in the top 15?

Top 15 teams get AA type transfers. That would be nice, but not expected. But the NIL should be at least competitive to get All-Conference talent.

If what most experts say where we ranked in NIL was about 8-10 in the Big XII (far below the top 15 in the country, then guess what, we finished where our talent and NIL took us- in the #8-10 spot. Yet we expected our coach to be in the top 1/2 of the league with a budget/support from the bottom quartile. So maybe he did coach well.

We only lost to one "inferior" opponent- UCF- in the NET rankings but beat Cincy twice, beat ISU, and beat BYU. And arguably, beat some teams with more talent (NIL budgets) that underperformed on the floor this season. Yeah, maybe we could have beat TTU, beat Texas, beat TCU, beat KU at home, or could have beat Houston if Moser pulled different strings, or a better coach was on the sideline. But no one can objectively look at any of those squads and say that our talent was better than theirs. And, BTW, those schools step it up more in NIL and support than the OU admin and donors do right now.

If you believe OU has a top 25-30 roster, I don't know what to tell you because in the college basketball I watched this past year, it is easy to pick 25 teams more talented than OU was. Tell me one top-25 team that started someone equivalent to Sam Godwin at the 5. And besides, better recruiting rankings don't always equal better teams. If so, Texas would have won multiple NCs in football in the last 20 years, A&M wouldn't have fired Jimbo and Shaka Smart would still be in Austin. Our roster was not top 25 comparably.

Again, simply stating in another way, as many others have, PM is not the sole reason we are in this predicament. IDC who the other top coach OU could get, he won't rescue us out of the situation either. It's a combination of admin support, NIL, facilities, fan and donor apathy, AND coaching that has made us miss the tournament three years in a row. Not just PM. Maybe a better coach could've gotten us into the NCAA, but without the other needed items we would have been bounced the first weekend. Getting back to the tourney is a goal, but that shouldn't be THE goal. Winning games in March, or into April, should be. And we need more than a new HC to do that.

And until we get it ALL fixed, or move in that direction, harping on a change in coach without other support, will only get another mediocre coach or a good one that leaves.

 

[WTSooner]

If you believe OU has a top 25-30 roster, I don't know what to tell you because in the college basketball I watched this past year, it is easy to pick 25 teams more talented than OU was.

Wrong.

It's easier to pick 25-30 teams that played better basketball than we did. That isn't the same as being more talented.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I could be wrong.....I don't want to go back and read a 100 page thread but I think the "hype" around Uzan and NBA was coming from scouts/media types.....not our fans. I read people talking about him being our best player returning and a building block, which we're reasonable expectations....but he underperformed big time.

I think you're unreasonably pessimistic about Forsythe with the name calling, etc because you are making way more of a deal calling him Stephon, etc which I don't recall anyone implying...I've just read people say that he will surprise some people and be better than they expect.

You have a right to your opinion. I won't argue that.

I think the "Moser's a terrible coach" crowd using a last second shot loss to the #1 team in the country at the time is pretty comical. You want to crucify him for not making the tournament but give him zero credit for winning 20 games,beating ranked teams like ISU and BYU, and nearly upsetting UH. I think everyone wants their cake and wants to eat it too on their own side of the discussion without agreeing its not as bad or as good as it may seem.

We can get better for sure...but it could definitely be worse.

Our posters definitely saw Los as an NBA guy. I remember after he got off to a bad start to the season, people even trying to see the bright side by saying it would at least improve our chances that he would stay in college another year.

And who is killing Moser for losing to Houston? People are looking at 3 years of results. That game represents one percent of his body of work. And the two wins you cite … they came in 13 opportunities to beat tournament opponents. Instead of being a feather in his cap, it’s actually an indictment that in a league where you get tons of chances to beat good teams, he only managed to beat two of them, both at home. Just about every P5 team manages to pick up a couple big home wins.

As for 20 wins, that’s one of those arbitrary numbers that used to mean a lot before people understood analytics and realized that scheduling makes a huge difference. I mean, 8 of those wins are absolutely meaningless given opponents. I’d much rather go 18-13 against a really good noncon because that would get us to the tournament, as we saw a couple times late in Lon’s career. That seems like such an obvious thing to me. I mean, there is a reason teams from weak conferences that go 29-2 still end up low seeds if they win their conference tournament. So no, I don’t give any coach props for wins against the absolute worst teams in the country.

 

[Boom Soon]

Our posters definitely saw Los as an NBA guy. I remember after he got off to a bad start to the season, people even trying to see the bright side by saying it would at least improve our chances that he would stay in college another year.

And who is killing Moser for losing to Houston? People are looking at 3 years of results. That game represents one percent of his body of work. And the two wins you cite … they came in 13 opportunities to beat tournament opponents. Instead of being a feather in his cap, it’s actually an indictment that in a league where you get tons of chances to beat good teams, he only managed to beat two of them, both at home. Just about every P5 team manages to pick up a couple big home wins.

As for 20 wins, that’s one of those arbitrary numbers that used to mean a lot before people understood analytics and realized that scheduling makes a huge difference. I mean, 8 of those wins are absolutely meaningless given opponents. I’d much rather go 18-13 against a really good noncon because that would get us to the tournament, as we saw a couple times late in Lon’s career. That seems like such an obvious thing to me. I mean, there is a reason teams from weak conferences that go 29-2 still end up low seeds if they win their conference tournament. So no, I don’t give any coach props for wins against the absolute worst teams in the country.

It is pretty crazy how far people will go to defend Moser. Wow, we won two whole games against ranked opponents. UCF did too. Oh, and we got run out of the gym by UCF. They act like OU basketball has never had success and that we should just be okay with missing the tournament and a complete rebuild in year three. We don’t have to be a holes about it but no OU basketball fan should be even remotely content right now. We don’t need to personally attack the guy but I just don’t know how anyone can really defend his tenure at OU.

NorthCarolinaSooner says it could be worse. The reality is the only way it could be worse is if there was a major scandal. It can’t get much worse from here. We have a coach who has made history by missing the tournament three years in a row and as of now, not a single core piece of last year’s team is certain to return.

 

[MJSooner]

Wrong.

It's easier to pick 25-30 teams that played better basketball than we did. That isn't the same as being more talented.

Wrong. Easy to pick 25 teams with more talent on their roster, either from the eye test or recruiting rankings. And wow, coincidentally, most of these teams were ranked.

1. Duke
2. UNC
3. Houston
4. UConn
5. Purdue
6. Alabama
7. Kentucky
8. Tennesee
9. Illinois
10. USC
11. Arizona
12. Ole Miss
13. Creighton
14. Marquette
15. Louisville
16. NC State
17. Gonzaga
18. Auburn
19. San Diego State
20. Florida
21. Virginia
22. Texas A&M
23. South Carolina
24. Kansas
25. Baylor
26. Texas
27. Cincinnati
28. Villanova
29. Texas Tech
30. TCU

That's off the top of my head and probably missing some, and some of these are marginally better or didn't play to their talent. And not all of them finished in the top 25, as teams like James Madison, St Marys, or Dayton (though they did have a AA) were in the top 25 but maybe not that highly ranked in talent.

Sure, it's the HC's job to get better talent, but when you look at the rumored NIL budgets for almost every one of those schools, OU is not competitive. So you have an okay/good coach with less resources than the competition, and you're going to say okay to good results. Want to be good to great? Need great resources AND a great coach.

All I'm saying is until the resources and support change, you'll get the same results. Despite our malcontent and unhappiness with the results, those whom matter seem content.

 

[WTSooner]

That's off the top of my head and probably missing some, and some of these are marginally better or didn't play to their talent. And not all of them finished in the top 25, as teams like James Madison, St Marys, or Dayton (though they did have a AA) were in the top 25 but maybe not that highly ranked in talent.

 

[Eielson]

Lon Averaged 7.6 conference wins post-Buddy. If you want to exclude the immediate aftermath as a rebuild, he won 8.25 conference games per season over the last four.

Moser won 8. Same ****, different toilet.

 

[steverocks35]

Lon Averaged 7.6 conference wins post-Buddy. If you want to exclude the immediate aftermath as a rebuild, he won 8.25 conference games per season over the last four.

Moser won 8. Same ****, different toilet.

I was a critic of Coach Kruger in those later years too. I want big improvements in our program. Maybe no coach can succeed in today's climate at OU. I don't know. All I know is that it doesn't seem that Moser is a good fit. He's probably only got one more season to prove that he is.

 

[TINY]

I was a critic of Coach Kruger in those later years too. I want big improvements in our program. Maybe no coach can succeed in today's climate at OU. I don't know. All I know is that it doesn't seem that Moser is a good fit. He's probably only got one more season to prove that he is.

A reasonable take

 

[skyvue]

And until we get it ALL fixed, or move in that direction, harping on a change in coach without other support, will only get another mediocre coach or a good one that leaves.

I would argue that getting the right coach is the first step toward making those other fixes. Winning is a major factor; making the tournament matters; retaining players (yes, it's more of a challenge now) matters. I don't think we're getting anywhere in these areas with Moser and we certainly won't attract more NIL unless his results improve drastically.

 

[Eielson]

I was a critic of Coach Kruger in those later years too. I want big improvements in our program. Maybe no coach can succeed in today's climate at OU. I don't know. All I know is that it doesn't seem that Moser is a good fit. He's probably only got one more season to prove that he is.

I wasn't happy then. I'm not happy now. It's just annoying to see people that ardently defended Kruger for these types of seasons turn around and act like we've fallen off a cliff. Other than the catastrophic season 2, this has mostly been much of the same.

There are plenty of things in Moser's power that he could do better. I think we can do better, but I've grown less and less certain of that over the years. I no longer cling to us being an obvious top 25 program the way I did after decades of success under Tubbs and Sampson. I'm glad we're joining the SEC, as had we waited around and fell further behind with conference money, that could have been detrimental to our program. I suspect we'll have several more years of mourning letting Sampson get away.

 

[skyvue]

Our posters definitely saw Los as an NBA guy. I remember after he got off to a bad start to the season, people even trying to see the bright side by saying it would at least improve our chances that he would stay in college another year.

Oh, good grief. Our fans didn't start that talk; it was in response to media reports that Los was being rated highly by NBA scouts. That was a normal fan reaction.

 

[soonerchuck]

I can already see where it is headed. If he doesn't contribute next season or plays and gets exposed, the people talking him up now will backpedal and say "oh, I never said he would be a star, the kid is just a freshman." Only one true freshmen has ever been part of the rotation under Moser for a full season. This kid is lower rater than pretty much all the previous guys other than Luke. Yet people are acting as if he will be the one to come in and make an impact.

I haven't read where anyone said he was going to be a star and there has been noone who claims he won't make freshman mistakes because we allknow that in fact he will be a freshman. Coach just said I think It will be hard to keep dayton off the floor. That to me just implies that he thinks Dayton will be on the floor for significantly more minutes and more key minutes than Kaden Cooper who you moaned frequently about not getting enough playing time from Moser.

 

[hoopsaustin]

Where did I say ANYWHERE in my post, or anywhere on this board, about the need for our NIL to be in the top 15?

Top 15 teams get AA type transfers. That would be nice, but not expected. But the NIL should be at least competitive to get All-Conference talent.

If what most experts say where we ranked in NIL was about 8-10 in the Big XII (far below the top 15 in the country, then guess what, we finished where our talent and NIL took us- in the #8-10 spot. Yet we expected our coach to be in the top 1/2 of the league with a budget/support from the bottom quartile. So maybe he did coach well.

We only lost to one "inferior" opponent- UCF- in the NET rankings but beat Cincy twice, beat ISU, and beat BYU. And arguably, beat some teams with more talent (NIL budgets) that underperformed on the floor this season. Yeah, maybe we could have beat TTU, beat Texas, beat TCU, beat KU at home, or could have beat Houston if Moser pulled different strings, or a better coach was on the sideline. But no one can objectively look at any of those squads and say that our talent was better than theirs. And, BTW, those schools step it up more in NIL and support than the OU admin and donors do right now.

If you believe OU has a top 25-30 roster, I don't know what to tell you because in the college basketball I watched this past year, it is easy to pick 25 teams more talented than OU was. Tell me one top-25 team that started someone equivalent to Sam Godwin at the 5. And besides, better recruiting rankings don't always equal better teams. If so, Texas would have won multiple NCs in football in the last 20 years, A&M wouldn't have fired Jimbo and Shaka Smart would still be in Austin. Our roster was not top 25 comparably.

Again, simply stating in another way, as many others have, PM is not the sole reason we are in this predicament. IDC who the other top coach OU could get, he won't rescue us out of the situation either. It's a combination of admin support, NIL, facilities, fan and donor apathy, AND coaching that has made us miss the tournament three years in a row. Not just PM. Maybe a better coach could've gotten us into the NCAA, but without the other needed items we would have been bounced the first weekend. Getting back to the tourney is a goal, but that shouldn't be THE goal. Winning games in March, or into April, should be. And we need more than a new HC to do that.

And until we get it ALL fixed, or move in that direction, harping on a change in coach without other support, will only get another mediocre coach or a good one that leaves.

Your whole premise is of course flawed. That the coaching has nothing to do with performance. Why not just have no coach and fund our NIL with moser's salary every year..

 

[hoopsaustin]

Lon Averaged 7.6 conference wins post-Buddy. If you want to exclude the immediate aftermath as a rebuild, he won 8.25 conference games per season over the last four.

Moser won 8. Same ****, different toilet.

Why do you get to post-buddy it tho? I wish porter had a pre-buddy at ou...

 

[MJSooner]

I would argue that getting the right coach is the first step toward making those other fixes. Winning is a major factor; making the tournament matters; retaining players (yes, it's more of a challenge now) matters. I don't think we're getting anywhere in these areas with Moser and we certainly won't attract more NIL unless his results improve drastically.

Don't necessarily disagree with you. The problem is unless you get the other issues fixed, it is tough to attract the right/better coach. And then be able to retain them.

I do tend to agree with you in the fact the problems won't get better if they haven't already with PM because there won't be the impetus to change. He has no leverage.

Maybe the right answer is you have to get the admin, support, and resources to put together a package for the right candidate, much like Arky did for Cal. The problem is we don't have a Tyson family willing to do so and we may have to hit rock bottom to get donors/admin/Joe C uncomfortable enough to make those changes.

Right now, it seems the people who matter are content with being okay or just good enough. And that is a terrible place for us fans.

 

[soonerchuck]

Haha funny coming from you. Your bold prediction is that "he will be hard to keep off the court." So what does that mean?

My prediction is that one of two things will happen. If we sign any competent guards, the next coming of Steph will play fewer minutes next season than Cooper did this season. Or, Moser will utterly fail in the portal and he will play by necessity. I will be happy to be more specific once our roster is finalized.

Sounds like you are setting up a strawman to cover your behind if he does better than you expect. It's the same old game. We didn't sign any competent guards, or , Moser utterly failed in the portal and he had to play by necessity.

 

[Soonerguy06]

Goodness, there is so much arguing back and forth on here!

 

[soonerchuck]

Oh, good grief. Our fans didn't start that talk; it was in response to media reports that Los was being rated highly by NBA scouts. That was a normal fan reaction.

I agree, that was clearly my recollection,

 

[hoopsaustin]

We apparently are trying to buy back a couple of players who left the state to play elsewhere.
Maybe a better strategy would be to keep these players home from the beginning and they'd likely stick around 4 years and be able to help the team.
Sort of like what BV is doing.

There is no right answer of course. Bc if they did well at OU they would test the waters to get paid more. There is 0% loyalty anymore