NIL Strategy

[hoopsaustin]

This is such a weird attack lol, don't be upset.

I have been off the Moser train all season long.

Just showing (via stats) that there is some mild correlation between NIL and success.
Are there outliers? Of course.

Under Acheivers:
Ole Miss finished 8 spots lower than their NIL, same with Texas.
Auburn 6 spots lower.

Over Acheivers:
Georgia finished 6 spots higher.
Tennessee 4 lower, and LSU 4 higher.

Outside of that, everyone was within 0-2 spots from their NIL spend line. 9ish teams that were within their spending average.

This does not include Florida and Vandy, which is assumed Florida is within the 2 spots outcome and Vandy is in the over-achievers category.

View attachment 3017

Out of the 14 listed, I count 8 that were 3 or greater away from their NIL rank vs SEC rank (which hurts your causation argument)

So I don't get how you're saying with the exception of 6 of them, the rest were 0-2 within, unless you are double dipping and also including their KP Plus Minus also to get to that statement

 

[cowboysooner]

NorthCarolina, if your NIL numbers are right, then maybe OU isn't too far off from being competitive. If we are currently spending 6-7 million and nobody but Kentucky is spending more than 10 million, then we don't really have to be too much higher from a commitment standpoint to be with everyone but Kentucky.

Actually, from what I heard on the radio yesterday, our admin budget for basketball doesn't seem to bad. I think I heard around $11 mil, and this was said to be pretty normal for the SEC and most major colleges. It is our NIL that is low, if I heard correctly. I don't have it to give, but surely OU can find another 3-4 million per year if that is what it take to put us on par with most of our competitors.

The big question for me is whether to spread whatever we have in NIL among a lot of average players, or drop in on one or two super players and then just fill in. I'm not sure anyone had expressed an opinion on this issue.

 

[IndySooner]

NorthCarolina, if your NIL numbers are right, then maybe OU isn't too far off from being competitive. If we are currently spending 6-7 million and nobody but Kentucky is spending more than 10 million, then we don't really have to be too much higher from a commitment standpoint to be with everyone but Kentucky.

Actually, from what I heard on the radio yesterday, our admin budget for basketball doesn't seem to bad. I think I heard around $11 mil, and this was said to be pretty normal for the SEC and most major colleges. It is our NIL that is low, if I heard correctly. I don't have it to give, but surely OU can find another 3-4 million per year if that is what it take to put us on par with most of our competitors.

The big question for me is whether to spread whatever we have in NIL among a lot of average players, or drop in on one or two super players and then just fill in. I'm not sure anyone had expressed an opinion on this issue.

My opinion: Do exactly what you did last year PLUS use the extra NIL to get yourself a legitimate 5.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Out of the 14 listed, I count 8 that were 3 or greater away from their NIL rank vs SEC rank (which hurts your causation argument)

So I don't get how you're saying with the exception of 6 of them, the rest were 0-2 within, unless you are double dipping and also including their KP Plus Minus also to get to that statement

I was off on 1, OH NO.

9 v. 9 with went 3+ spots over vs within 0-2. Florida and Vandy split, respectively. I could use the OUInsider budget which would add UF and Vandy in my favor...6 to 10, but I won't. I will stick with what I provided. (You could argue the 3 spots belong in the 0-2 spots range.)
(NIL BUDGET vs. SEC RANK)

I have no idea why you are arguing at this point.

Also I did say correlation, not causation. Not to be a nitpicky a-hole like others...

First Premise:
"The idea that teams have higher budgets and fail...have a shitty coach.
Likewise, the idea that teams have a lower budget and go above and beyond...have a solid coach."

Second Premise:
"Lower budget teams continue lower budget results."
It is not that hard to see.
Of the 8 bottom half teams in budget that the SEC had, 6 of them stayed in the bottom half of the SEC. That tends to help my argument. Heck, let's keep it at the arbitrary $15m budget (I will include Ole Miss), that is the have-nots.

9 teams fit that category in the bottom half of the league. Of those 9 that started in the bottom half, 6 finished in the bottom half. 66%

Moral of the story is, NIL clearly helps, but not as much if you have an average/bad coach. I think we have an average/bad coach...so NIL doesn't mean much to me.

 

[SoonerDutch]

of course the issue is another terrible year makes it harder to get NIL for the new coach the following year ..


the only good thing is that he is not getting an extension .. (that we know of )

I wish they cut Moser loose too but honestly think sentiment is so low, it’s almost like they’re waiting for an outside catalyst since sentiment is so low. Football makes a deep run or championship and/or the UNP project has its inaugural season. Then boosters will be more willing to give to the broader athletic program (& university)

My opinion: Do exactly what you did last year PLUS use the extra NIL to get yourself a legitimate 5.

I’m not great at roster construction and definitely don’t follow the portal as closely as others but from a strategy standpoint, I’d also think OU should probably replicate what they did this season. Seems like they prioritized guard play and took a calculated risk on Pack given his injury history. It’d be great to have a legitimate front court but would guess that’s the more expensive approach.

I get that not having an elite 5 limits OU's ceiling against truly elite teams but again, would just hope for OU to be solidly above bubble & get a double bye in the conference tournament. It has been since Buddy’s teams where OU was a solid middle-tier contender (2019-2020 was sort of but it took that crazy TCU game from Reaves).

 

[bigfish]

I was off on 1, OH NO.

9 v. 9 with went 3+ spots over vs within 0-2. Florida and Vandy split, respectively. I could use the OUInsider budget which would add UF and Vandy in my favor...6 to 10, but I won't. I will stick with what I provided. (You could argue the 3 spots belong in the 0-2 spots range.)
(NIL BUDGET vs. SEC RANK)

I have no idea why you are arguing at this point.

Also I did say correlation, not causation. Not to be a nitpicky a-hole like others...

First Premise:
"The idea that teams have higher budgets and fail...have a shitty coach.
Likewise, the idea that teams have a lower budget and go above and beyond...have a solid coach."

Second Premise:
"Lower budget teams continue lower budget results."
It is not that hard to see.
Of the 8 bottom half teams in budget that the SEC had, 6 of them stayed in the bottom half of the SEC. That tends to help my argument. Heck, let's keep it at the arbitrary $15m budget (I will include Ole Miss), that is the have-nots.

9 teams fit that category in the bottom half of the league. Of those 9 that started in the bottom half, 6 finished in the bottom half. 66%

Moral of the story is, NIL clearly helps, but not as much if you have an average/bad coach. I think we have an average/bad coach...so NIL doesn't mean much to me.

Ideally, we would increase NIL and upgrade the coach. But since we're not upgrading the coach, unless he leaves on his own, the increased NIL might only help incrementally in wins. It remains to be seen if that's one more win, two, who knows? At this point, my apathy toward the program is at an all-time high.

 

[SoonerDutch]

Moral of the story is, NIL clearly helps, but not as much if you have an average/bad coach. I think we have an average/bad coach...so NIL doesn't mean much to me.

I don’t disagree, but would just say that having a history of competitive NIL makes it easier to recruit/retain an above average coach.

Some On3 graphic from a few weeks ago had OU listed as the third worst SEC job according to an anonymous coaches poll. Part of that is the condition of the program due to Moser but also think it’s a somewhat legitimate perception of the resource/fan support backing of the program even when things are going well.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Here is my fear: it seems Moser always overcorrects from one season to the next. (One reason a GM would help IMO.) Given that, I have no idea what approach he will take to roster building, even if there is more money available. Would a really good big help? Absolutely. But there aren't a ton of those available, and plenty of teams win with bigs who are solid, not spectacular.

Given how bad the defense was this season, I could easily see him making that the focus, and, in the process, building a roster that lacks shooting or athleticism or scoring. Our team has always had at least one major flaw under him -- every team has flaws, but we always have a glaring one. I just wish, for once, he would fix the previous season's issue without creating new ones in the process.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Here is my fear: it seems Moser always overcorrects from one season to the next. (One reason a GM would help IMO.) Given that, I have no idea what approach he will take to roster building, even if there is more money available. Would a really good big help? Absolutely. But there aren't a ton of those available, and plenty of teams win with bigs who are solid, not spectacular.

Given how bad the defense was this season, I could easily see him making that the focus, and, in the process, building a roster that lacks shooting or athleticism or scoring. Our team has always had at least one major flaw under him -- every team has flaws, but we always have a glaring one. I just wish, for once, he would fix the previous seasons issue without creating new ones in the process.

he also doesn't have a system to overcome the flaws .. on O or on D ..

 

[WichitaSooner]

he also doesn't have a system to overcome the flaws .. on O or on D ..

Exactly. I know it will never happen, but my dream is that one day, he will actually try to apply some pressure defensively. We are so passive on that end of the floor, it drives me nuts. He never adapts, even when we do have decent athleticism.

 

[mict085]

I think this is going to work itself out over the next year and we’ll be looking for a new coach this time next year. I just hate that we have to waste yet another year of OU basketball.

 

[hoopsaustin]

I was off on 1, OH NO.

9 v. 9 with went 3+ spots over vs within 0-2. Florida and Vandy split, respectively. I could use the OUInsider budget which would add UF and Vandy in my favor...6 to 10, but I won't. I will stick with what I provided. (You could argue the 3 spots belong in the 0-2 spots range.)
(NIL BUDGET vs. SEC RANK)

I have no idea why you are arguing at this point.

Also I did say correlation, not causation. Not to be a nitpicky a-hole like others...

First Premise:
"The idea that teams have higher budgets and fail...have a shitty coach.
Likewise, the idea that teams have a lower budget and go above and beyond...have a solid coach."

Second Premise:
"Lower budget teams continue lower budget results."
It is not that hard to see.
Of the 8 bottom half teams in budget that the SEC had, 6 of them stayed in the bottom half of the SEC. That tends to help my argument. Heck, let's keep it at the arbitrary $15m budget (I will include Ole Miss), that is the have-nots.

9 teams fit that category in the bottom half of the league. Of those 9 that started in the bottom half, 6 finished in the bottom half. 66%

Moral of the story is, NIL clearly helps, but not as much if you have an average/bad coach. I think we have an average/bad coach...so NIL doesn't mean much to me.

Yeah I'm like on the same page as you I think, so chill.. if we had a average coach, I think we would have been 6th this year with a 10th NIL instead of 12th. But I guess we are going to try to shoot for like 8th in NIL year next year so porter 20% moser can underperformed again and lead us to 10th next year? Yayyy

 

[hoopsaustin]

I think this is going to work itself out over the next year and we’ll be looking for a new coach this time next year. I just hate that we have to waste yet another year of OU basketball.

Yup. Co-signed

 

[opsooner]

Here is my fear: it seems Moser always overcorrects from one season to the next. (One reason a GM would help IMO.) Given that, I have no idea what approach he will take to roster building, even if there is more money available. Would a really good big help? Absolutely. But there aren't a ton of those available, and plenty of teams win with bigs who are solid, not spectacular.

Given how bad the defense was this season, I could easily see him making that the focus, and, in the process, building a roster that lacks shooting or athleticism or scoring. Our team has always had at least one major flaw under him -- every team has flaws, but we always have a glaring one. I just wish, for once, he would fix the previous seasons issue without creating new ones in the process.

Just 2 seasons ago he said he made the switch to finding better offense. He did the same for this season. And we were better on offense. I’ll take that strategy and hopefully find a few guys who already know how to play fundamentally sound defense. No matter who is on the court I don’t trust that we will deny the guy who is going to get the ball in a critical moment. Nor will we foul when we should. My thought is take the offense and pray for the rest with the hope we have guys who can make plays.

It always takes us 60% of the season for Porter to develop a D. I think back to Gonzaga and Nebraska this year. There was just straight man and switching D. No help; no sliding over; nothing. Yes, there were matchup problems but we chose not to address them. We were better later, after we had already lost a lot of close games.

 

[AnotherSoonerInTX]

I think this is going to work itself out over the next year and we’ll be looking for a new coach this time next year. I just hate that we have to waste yet another year of OU basketball.

This is accurate.

It's similar to what we did with football last year on a much smaller scale. Promise more administrative support and NIL while giving the coach a make or break year. Only Brent is a better football coach than Porter is a basketball coach.

We wanted to be in search season right now. We'll be in it this time next year.

 

[WTSooner]

I think this is going to work itself out over the next year and we’ll be looking for a new coach this time next year. I just hate that we have to waste yet another year of OU basketball.

Or worse, PoMo puts together a decent season, we make the Dance as a 10 seed, get bounced, he comes back, and we miss the Dance for the next couple of years before they can him.

It'll be VERY interesting to see what they do with his contract in a year, if he is retained again.

 

[pnkranger]

One thing you can be sure of: Moser teams are always terrible at passing. Never overcorrects on that.