Odds to win the Big 12

[ChongoChingi]

Found this on reddit but it sourced from kenpom and I thought it was interesting.

 

[campbest]

This can't be correct...we lost to Creighton, Washington and Kansas State!!!

 

[Max Power]

This can't be correct...we lost to Creighton, Washington and Kansas State!!!

WE can roll off 15 straight, have one conference loss with everybody else having 2, and we would win outright.

 

[DapperDan]

WE can roll off 15 straight, have one conference loss with everybody else having 2, and we would win outright.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but it is going to be tough.

Best case scenario this week would be for OSU to beat KU tonight, then lose to us at home on Saturday, with us obviously also needing to beat WVU. All we can control is ourselves, but some help from OSU against KU and an ISU loss this week - We would be sitting pretty.

Kansas and ISU are both 2-0,
WVU, OU, OSU and KSU are all 2-1.

 

[bocabull]

It's kind of like the game last night. Ohio State had such a massive talent advantage it was a virtual lock they would win. Their last 3 recruiting classes were 3, 2, & 4. Oregon classes are usually borderline top 15-20.

Kansas, sad to say, is a the odds on favorite to win the league again. They have a massive talent advantage. Their best players are their youngest players meaning they are nowhere near their ceiling.

OU doesn't have much room to improve. Thomas & Spangler are 4th year players. Buddy & Cousins are 3rd year guys. Woodard is undersized. The bench? Nobody home. We're a good squad but not much upside from here and you're right camp, our veteran team lost to those mediocre teams. It won't change. I'm gonna guess 11-7 will end up being our record.

 

[DapperDan]

It's kind of like the game last night. Ohio State had such a massive talent advantage it was a virtual lock they would win. Their last 3 recruiting classes were 3, 2, & 4. Oregon classes are usually borderline top 15-20.

Kansas, sad to say, is a the odds on favorite to win the league again. They have a massive talent advantage. Their best players are their youngest players meaning they are nowhere near their ceiling.

OU doesn't have much room to improve. Thomas & Spangler are 4th year players. Buddy & Cousins are 3rd year guys. Woodard is undersized. The bench? Nobody home. We're a good squad but not much upside from here and you're right camp, our veteran team lost to those mediocre teams. It won't change. I'm gonna guess 11-7 will end up being our record.

Sadly, I completely agree with this. We will likely make a run at it, but in the end, itll likely be KU again. IMO we have a better shot at the Big 12 Tourney than the Reg season.

 

[campbest]

OU doesn't have much room to improve. Thomas & Spangler are 4th year players. Buddy & Cousins are 3rd year guys. Woodard is undersized. The bench? Nobody home. We're a good squad but not much upside from here and you're right camp, our veteran team lost to those mediocre teams. It won't change. I'm gonna guess 11-7 will end up being our record.

I agree that OU probably won't "improve" as much as KU's pups, but that doesn't mean OU is out of it by any means. You say they will finish 11-7...that's probably only two games out of first given the talent in the Big XII. I believe 13-5 is a very realistic possibility.

 

[trueou]

Well it is accurate that we are arithmetically in charge of our destiny. We have yet to play any team that is ahead of us in the standings. So have no more losses and we win the Big 12. Will we do it? Unlikely to improbable. I guess if we and KSU go unbeaten from this point forward we would end up in a tie. Again, this is unlikely to happen either.

 

[stormspencer]

Our Kempom defensive and offensive efficiency numbers are very good.....and that is reflective in the "odds to share the Big 12". The one variable in his ratings that is very low for OU is "luck". OU's luck rating is currently 328th out of 351 teams. "Luck" isn't some crazy, scientific calculation he creates. The luck rating reflects that we have lost close games that could've gone either way. It also takes into account that if we played a team on a particular night.....and that team played "above their head".....meaning we are taking other teams' best shot. In our case, we have run across a higher percentage of teams playing well against us than on average.

Usually "luck" evens itself out over the course of the season.

Having said all of the above, I believe that is why we are still in a good position, from a computer standpoint, to "share" the BIG 12 title. Notice again it said share of the Big 12 title.

 

[Price is Right]

OU doesn't have much room to improve. Thomas & Spangler are 4th year players. Buddy & Cousins are 3rd year guys. Woodard is undersized. The bench? Nobody home. We're a good squad but not much upside from here and you're right camp, our veteran team lost to those mediocre teams. It won't change. I'm gonna guess 11-7 will end up being our record.

Not much room to improve? These aren't 32 year old NBA vets they're still kids, what are they 19-22?? C'mon man guys make huge leaps in the NBA from time to time pretty silly to think these guys have come anywhere close to hitting their ceiling.

 

[bocabull]

I agree that OU probably won't "improve" as much as KU's pups, but that doesn't mean OU is out of it by any means. You say they will finish 11-7...that's probably only two games out of first given the talent in the Big XII. I believe 13-5 is a very realistic possibility.

True. 13-5 is surely possible. To do it we must run the table at home from here on out and finish 5-4 road record. I doubt Kansas loses more than 4 though. We'll know a lot more in a few hours.

 

[slappy in OP]

Looks like those odds are going down quickly. We'll have to go on a major run to get tonight's game.

 

[MichaelM]

After tonight's games, Pomeroy ratings dropped OU clear down to... 12th. In the country. Two spots behind West Virginia and two ahead of Kansas. I don't know what the Big 12 odds are, but there's no way OU is rated lower than fourth.

WVU is rated top 20 in both offense and defense (along with only five other teams). They're really good and tonight was no fluke, but two bad games doesn't mean this is suddenly a lost season.

 

[bocabull]

Pomeroy ratings are complete and utter garbage. lol @ anybody who really thinks the OU defense is the 6th best in the country while Kansas is #37. Look at their length, athleticism & coaching advantage. Our defense is greatly exaggerated as is the strength of the Big XII. The conference has parity, not strength. Kansas easily wins it again.

 

[Laxtothemax12]

HA!