OU and the Bubble...

[stormspencer]

Texas was at 8% last night with a loss.

That was according the the ESPN BPI metric....which is far from the best metric. I would look at Kenpom, Torvik (T-Rank), Sagarin, and Haslamterics as much better indicators....and of course NET.

 

[NY Soonerfan]

Texas has ZERO chance. Not only would they never let a team that is 16-16 in, but the fact Hayes got hurt makes it all but official. They aren't letting them in regardless, and with them now likely missing a key piece, there's just no chance.

We're big VCU fans today, btw.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Texas has ZERO chance. Not only would they never let a team that is 16-16 in, but the fact Hayes got hurt makes it all but official. They aren't letting them in regardless, and with them now likely missing a key piece, there's just no chance.

We're big VCU fans today, btw.

VCU and Buffalo are two teams who would disappoint bubble teams with losses in their conference tourneys. I don't think OU would be one of the teams in danger if they lose, but for the teams right around the cut line, losses by either of those teams would be bad news.

 

[stormspencer]

VCU and Buffalo are two teams who would disappoint bubble teams with losses in their conference tourneys. I don't think OU would be one of the teams in danger if they lose, but for the teams right around the cut line, losses by either of those teams would be bad news.

I don't see anyone beating Buffalo in the MAC. The second best team (Toledo) got eliminated yesterday.

VCU, on the other hand, just lost one of their best players today during their game with Rhode Island (8 seed). They are in a dogfight right now.

 

[Max Power]

we are still a 9 seed in the am bracket matrix update.

Their last 4 in Temple, Florida, St. Johns, Ohio State
First 4 out Belmont, Indiana, Alabama, texas

 

[WichitaSooner]

we are still a 9 seed in the am bracket matrix update.

Their last 4 in Temple, Florida, St. Johns, Ohio State
First 4 out Belmont, Indiana, Alabama, texas

Gators likely just locked their spot up. Lots of high level games won the past couple days by teams who have been frequently labeled a varying degrees of crappy on here. If the current projections hold, we have five wins against the field. That's four more than some were suggesting not long ago.

 

[stormspencer]

we are still a 9 seed in the am bracket matrix update.

Their last 4 in Temple, Florida, St. Johns, Ohio State
First 4 out Belmont, Indiana, Alabama, texas

I'm preferring a 10 seed over a 9 seed. To be honest, there is little difference between playing a 7 or an 8. The bad part is that if we were to win our first round game, I don't know that there is much difference between the 1 and 2 seeds this year either. Of the teams on the 1 and 2 line, I would hope we either draw Michigan, Michigan State or Gonzaga if we could get that far. I'm sure as hell not saying that we would win, but those are the teams I believe we "could" at least have a puncher's chance against if we got hot.

 

[NY Soonerfan]

VCU losing hurts; they were up 8 in the first half when their best play (and all-conference player) went out for the remainder of the game (and maybe more) after being hurt.

Florida winning isn't ideal either, though it flatters us a tad too.

 

[NY Soonerfan]

I'm preferring a 10 seed over a 9 seed. To be honest, there is little difference between playing a 7 or an 8. The bad part is that if we were to win our first round game, I don't know that there is much difference between the 1 and 2 seeds this year either. Of the teams on the 1 and 2 line, I would hope we either draw Michigan, Michigan State or Gonzaga if we could get that far. I'm sure as hell not saying that we would win, but those are the teams I believe we "could" at least have a puncher's chance against if we got hot.

Gonzaga would beat us by 81 haha. I'd think we could play with Virginia or Michigan for a little bit, more b/c of their style, than anything else. We'd still lose comfortably, but their style would keep us in the game, to a certain extent.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Every bubble team was sweating the Buffalo and Villanova games but they both pulled through. Buffalo plays tons of close games, so they are no sure thing tomorrow.

 

[NY Soonerfan]

Every bubble team was sweating the Buffalo and Villanova games but they both pulled through. Buffalo plays tons of close games, so they are no sure thing tomorrow.

Yikes, that was a dicey 20 minutes!!!

 

[NY Soonerfan]

Every bubble team was sweating the Buffalo and Villanova games but they both pulled through. Buffalo plays tons of close games, so they are no sure thing tomorrow.

Nevada down 8 with under 15:00 left. I have Utah St. as a lock, but I also wouldn't trust them in the final against SDSU either. Here's hoping we can get a Nevada-Utah St. final and not have to worry about it.

 

[stormspencer]

Every bubble team was sweating the Buffalo and Villanova games but they both pulled through. Buffalo plays tons of close games, so they are no sure thing tomorrow.

Yes....I was sweating out both of those games....not that it matters. OU is fine....but I would prefer less tournament craziness. It tends to calm the nerves around 5:30 on Sunday.

And Buffalo will roll tmrw.....they played their bad game this evening.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Yes....I was sweating out both of those games....not that it matters. OU is fine....but I would prefer less tournament craziness. It tends to calm the nerves around 5:30 on Sunday.

And Buffalo will roll tmrw.....they played their bad game this evening.

I hope you are right! It feels like every time I've watched them, they are down or in a close game with about 10 minutes left.

Temple is on trouble right now. They are probably in, though they will nervous if they lose. And now that Nevada lost, as NYSooner said, Utah State needs to win that tournament.

 

[WTSooner]

I'm going to start by saying WE ARE SAFE! We are Dancing.

That said, ESPN now has us in the last 8 getting in. That KU win, and catching TCU and UT when we did probably saved the season. Lose any two of those three, and we're probably right on the bubble at best right now, which is what a lot of folks were saying when 6-12 was looking likely.

 

[thebigabd]

I'm going to start by saying WE ARE SAFE! We are Dancing.

That said, ESPN now has us in the last 8 getting in. That KU win, and catching TCU and UT when we did probably saved the season. Lose any two of those three, and we're probably right on the bubble at best right now, which is what a lot of folks were saying when 6-12 was looking likely.

This.

Need some favorites to win, not out of the woods yet, but OU SHOULD be in. It will come down to selecting a high major with a worse record or a mid-major with a better record.

 

[NY Soonerfan]

This.

Need some favorites to win, not out of the woods yet, but OU SHOULD be in. It will come down to selecting a high major with a worse record or a mid-major with a better record.

Right now, I have seven spots for 19 teams, though, realistically, there are only 10-11 fighting for berths. I think we are at the top, or within a spot or two of it, so I don't view us as being in any sort of trouble. If Buffalo, Washington, and Utah St. all lose, I'll be a little more worried, but not much, the teams just aren't out there this year. Though, it's kind of like a boxing match we all watched, and know who clearly won, but then good old Dalby Shirley see's it somehow 117-111 for the other guy, and you're like "HUH?!" (That was a late-80s HBO reference from back in the day when I was about 12 haha).

Legit (10, listed in order): Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Arizona State, NC State, Clemson, Furman, St. John’s, Belmont, Temple

Reaches (9, listed in order): Lipscomb, Indiana, Memphis, Oregon, Alabama, Georgetown, Providence, UNC-Greensboro, Davidson,

Lock Conference Leaders (3): Buffalo, Utah State, Washington
Bubble Conference Leaders (1): New Mexico State

 

[slappy in OP]

Confident that we are in the dance.

Having Buffalo and Washington win would just make that more comfortable for the other teams looking up at us. Good feeling to have. Loving UT sweating this out. They are toast in my book. Such a massive failure with their talent.

 

[WTSooner]

Right now, I have seven spots for 19 teams, though, realistically, there are only 10-11 fighting for berths. I think we are at the top, or within a spot or two of it, so I don't view us as being in any sort of trouble. If Buffalo, Washington, and Utah St. all lose, I'll be a little more worried, but not much, the teams just aren't out there this year. Though, it's kind of like a boxing match we all watched, and know who clearly won, but then good old Dalby Shirley see's it somehow 117-111 for the other guy, and you're like "HUH?!" (That was a late-80s HBO reference from back in the day when I was about 12 haha).

Legit (10, listed in order): Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Arizona State, NC State, Clemson, Furman, St. John’s, Belmont, Temple

Reaches (9, listed in order): Lipscomb, Indiana, Memphis, Oregon, Alabama, Georgetown, Providence, UNC-Greensboro, Davidson,

Lock Conference Leaders (3): Buffalo, Utah State, Washington
Bubble Conference Leaders (1): New Mexico State

The American could steal a spot if somehow Houston or Cincy didn't win (Memphis/WSU). Neither of those teams are getting in without winning their tourney.

 

[NY Soonerfan]

The American could steal a spot if somehow Houston or Cincy didn't win (Memphis/WSU). Neither of those teams are getting in without winning their tourney.

Absolutely, but I can't see Houston losing, and there's Cincy on the other side too, so I'm not considering that scenario at this point.