NY Soonerfan
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As an admitted bubble nerd, I figured I’d take advantage of a slow OU hoops week and delve into who could make the 68 teams come March. There’s a been a lot of good discussion on the board and I’ve been quite adamant that a 7-11 finish in the B12 would make us a “mortal lock” to get in, but I wanted to try and take an overview and put some names down on paper and see just how good (or bad) we look, in comparison to the rest of the bubble teams.
*** I know I rarely post (though I’m on this dang board about 57 times a day LOL) and this is probably obnoxiously long, so I apologize if it breaks any site rules or is a real eyesore, etc. ***
I’ve sussed it out below in tiers, starting with the 32 automatic berths, which I awarded to the current conference leaders as of today, and then followed that with the 36 at-large berths that are available. I then further broke that down into tournament locks and bubble teams, then further broke that down into legitimate bubble teams and real reaches (as of today).
I came up with 22 locks, which means I have 14 potential at-large berths still available. After applying the legit/reach divider, I came up with 20 teams for those 14 spots, and their resumes are listed towards the end of this. And, after seeing it on paper for the first time, and using stats and committee criteria (NET ranking, quadrant wins, etc.), there’s little to no question in my mind we are making the tourney if we finish 7-11 in the B12. I even think it’s not out of the realm of possibility we make it at 6-12, though obviously that would be an uphill battle.
Right now, of the 20 teams I have on my list, EIGHT of those teams hail from power conferences (I did include the Big East in this list) and have under .500 records. That’s pretty remarkable, especially when you consider who the other 12 teams are and how they are far from household names and have very questionable resumes that are inflated by several Q4 wins (of which we have none, as I’ve said many times).
Now, obviously I’m far from 100% right on any of this, and there could be a few teams that I have as locks that aren’t and end up bombing and missing, and there could also be a few reaches that are firmly in the legitimate category and go on a run and make it. But, I think it’s pretty clear that we are in a great spot, should we finish the season strong.
The only caveat to all of this, just like it is every year, would be the locks from potential one-bid conference tournaments that lose. This list would be Nevada, Buffalo, Washington, Wofford and Gonzaga. If one or more of these teams lose, then our position would become very precarious.
America East: Vermont (68)
American Athletic: Houston (4)
Locks (1): Cincinnati
Bubble (4): Central Florida (39), Temple (53), Memphis (61), South Florida (79)
Atlantic 10: VCU (37)
Bubble (2): Davidson (72), Dayton (75)
ACC: North Carolina (9)
Locks (6): Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, NC State
Bubble (2): Syracuse (42), Clemson (44)
Atlantic Sun: Liberty (55)
Bubble (1): Lipscomb (47)
Big 12: Kansas State (28)
Locks (3): Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State
Bubble (4): Texas (35), Baylor (33), Oklahoma (38), TCU (41)
Big East: Marquette (19)
Locks (2): Villanova, St. John’s
Bubble (4): Butler (50), Seton Hall (64), Georgetown (71), Providence (74)
Big Sky: Montana (106) ***
Big South: Radford (133) ***
Big 10: Michigan (7)
Locks (5): Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Bubble (4): Nebraska (46), Ohio State (42), Minnesota (52), Indiana (57)
Big West: UC-Irvine (99) ***
Colonial: Hofstra (57)
C-USA: Old Dominion (80)
Horizon: Northern Kentucky (109) ***
IVY: Yale (67)
MAAC: Canisius (276) ***
MAC: Buffalo (18)
Bubble (1): Toledo (65)
MEAC: Norfolk State (252) ***
MVC: Drake (136) ***
Mountain West: Nevada (22)
Bubble (2): Utah State (36), Fresno State (93)
Northeast: St. Francis (263) ***
Ohio Valley: Murray State (60)
Bubble (1): Belmont (53)
Pac 12: Washington (30)
Bubble (3): Arizona State (66), Oregon (72), Oregon State (85)
Patriot: Lehigh (152) ***
SEC: Tennessee (6)
Locks (5): Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Bubble (3): Florida (31), Alabama (51), Arkansas (71)
Southern: Wofford (24)
Bubble (3): Furman (45), UNC-Greensboro (60), East Tennessee State (68)
Southland: Sam Houston State (173) ***
SWAC: Prairie View A+M (221) ***
Summit: South Dakota State (96) ***
Sun Belt: Georgia State (134) ***
WCC: Gonzaga (1)
Bubble (2): St. Mary’s (40), San Francisco (48)
WAC: New Mexico State (58)
Automatic Bids: 32
Locks: 22
Available Spots: 14
Bubble Teams: 36
Legit (20): (NET ranking), W-L/Conference W-L, QI/II wins, Q4 wins (Q4 losses)
Florida (31): 15-11/7-6, 3/3-5
Baylor (33): 17-9/8-5, 4/7-5 (2)
Texas (35): 15-11/7-6, 4/4-3
Utah State (36): 21-6/11-3, 1/2-12
Oklahoma (38): 16-10/4-9, 3/5-0
Central Florida (39): 19-6/9-4, 0/5-6
St. Mary’s (40): 18-10/9-4, 1/1-8
TCU (41): 17-9/5-8, 1/5-4
Syracuse (42): 18-8/9-4, 3/5-4 (basically a lock, but they have a nightmare schedule to end the season)
Ohio State (43): 17-9/7-8, 4/3-5
Clemson (44): 15-11/5-8, 1/3-6
Furman (45): 22-5/11-4, 1/3-14
Nebraska (46): 15-12/5-11, 2/5-4
Butler (50): 15-12/6-8, 2/5-3
Alabama (51): 15-11/6-7, 2/7-3
Minnesota (52): 17-10/7-9, 3/5-6
Belmont (53): 22-4/13-2, 2/3-14
Temple (54): 19-7/9-4, 1/5-7
Seton Hall (64): 16-10/7-7, 3/8-3
Arizona State (66): 18-8/9-5, 4/5-6 (2)
Reaches (16): Lipscomb (47), San Francisco (48), Indiana (57), UNC-Greensboro (60), Memphis (63), Toledo (65), East Tennessee State (68), Davidson (70), Arkansas (71), Dayton (74), South Florida (76), Georgetown (69), Oregon (72), Providence (73), Oregon State (85), Fresno State (93),
Lock Conference Leaders (5): Buffalo, Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington, Wofford
Bubble Conference Leaders (7): VCU, Liberty, Hofstra, ODU, Yale, Murray State, New Mexico State
*** I know I rarely post (though I’m on this dang board about 57 times a day LOL) and this is probably obnoxiously long, so I apologize if it breaks any site rules or is a real eyesore, etc. ***
I’ve sussed it out below in tiers, starting with the 32 automatic berths, which I awarded to the current conference leaders as of today, and then followed that with the 36 at-large berths that are available. I then further broke that down into tournament locks and bubble teams, then further broke that down into legitimate bubble teams and real reaches (as of today).
I came up with 22 locks, which means I have 14 potential at-large berths still available. After applying the legit/reach divider, I came up with 20 teams for those 14 spots, and their resumes are listed towards the end of this. And, after seeing it on paper for the first time, and using stats and committee criteria (NET ranking, quadrant wins, etc.), there’s little to no question in my mind we are making the tourney if we finish 7-11 in the B12. I even think it’s not out of the realm of possibility we make it at 6-12, though obviously that would be an uphill battle.
Right now, of the 20 teams I have on my list, EIGHT of those teams hail from power conferences (I did include the Big East in this list) and have under .500 records. That’s pretty remarkable, especially when you consider who the other 12 teams are and how they are far from household names and have very questionable resumes that are inflated by several Q4 wins (of which we have none, as I’ve said many times).
Now, obviously I’m far from 100% right on any of this, and there could be a few teams that I have as locks that aren’t and end up bombing and missing, and there could also be a few reaches that are firmly in the legitimate category and go on a run and make it. But, I think it’s pretty clear that we are in a great spot, should we finish the season strong.
The only caveat to all of this, just like it is every year, would be the locks from potential one-bid conference tournaments that lose. This list would be Nevada, Buffalo, Washington, Wofford and Gonzaga. If one or more of these teams lose, then our position would become very precarious.
America East: Vermont (68)
American Athletic: Houston (4)
Locks (1): Cincinnati
Bubble (4): Central Florida (39), Temple (53), Memphis (61), South Florida (79)
Atlantic 10: VCU (37)
Bubble (2): Davidson (72), Dayton (75)
ACC: North Carolina (9)
Locks (6): Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Florida State, NC State
Bubble (2): Syracuse (42), Clemson (44)
Atlantic Sun: Liberty (55)
Bubble (1): Lipscomb (47)
Big 12: Kansas State (28)
Locks (3): Texas Tech, Kansas, Iowa State
Bubble (4): Texas (35), Baylor (33), Oklahoma (38), TCU (41)
Big East: Marquette (19)
Locks (2): Villanova, St. John’s
Bubble (4): Butler (50), Seton Hall (64), Georgetown (71), Providence (74)
Big Sky: Montana (106) ***
Big South: Radford (133) ***
Big 10: Michigan (7)
Locks (5): Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Maryland, Iowa
Bubble (4): Nebraska (46), Ohio State (42), Minnesota (52), Indiana (57)
Big West: UC-Irvine (99) ***
Colonial: Hofstra (57)
C-USA: Old Dominion (80)
Horizon: Northern Kentucky (109) ***
IVY: Yale (67)
MAAC: Canisius (276) ***
MAC: Buffalo (18)
Bubble (1): Toledo (65)
MEAC: Norfolk State (252) ***
MVC: Drake (136) ***
Mountain West: Nevada (22)
Bubble (2): Utah State (36), Fresno State (93)
Northeast: St. Francis (263) ***
Ohio Valley: Murray State (60)
Bubble (1): Belmont (53)
Pac 12: Washington (30)
Bubble (3): Arizona State (66), Oregon (72), Oregon State (85)
Patriot: Lehigh (152) ***
SEC: Tennessee (6)
Locks (5): Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Bubble (3): Florida (31), Alabama (51), Arkansas (71)
Southern: Wofford (24)
Bubble (3): Furman (45), UNC-Greensboro (60), East Tennessee State (68)
Southland: Sam Houston State (173) ***
SWAC: Prairie View A+M (221) ***
Summit: South Dakota State (96) ***
Sun Belt: Georgia State (134) ***
WCC: Gonzaga (1)
Bubble (2): St. Mary’s (40), San Francisco (48)
WAC: New Mexico State (58)
Automatic Bids: 32
Locks: 22
Available Spots: 14
Bubble Teams: 36
Legit (20): (NET ranking), W-L/Conference W-L, QI/II wins, Q4 wins (Q4 losses)
Florida (31): 15-11/7-6, 3/3-5
Baylor (33): 17-9/8-5, 4/7-5 (2)
Texas (35): 15-11/7-6, 4/4-3
Utah State (36): 21-6/11-3, 1/2-12
Oklahoma (38): 16-10/4-9, 3/5-0
Central Florida (39): 19-6/9-4, 0/5-6
St. Mary’s (40): 18-10/9-4, 1/1-8
TCU (41): 17-9/5-8, 1/5-4
Syracuse (42): 18-8/9-4, 3/5-4 (basically a lock, but they have a nightmare schedule to end the season)
Ohio State (43): 17-9/7-8, 4/3-5
Clemson (44): 15-11/5-8, 1/3-6
Furman (45): 22-5/11-4, 1/3-14
Nebraska (46): 15-12/5-11, 2/5-4
Butler (50): 15-12/6-8, 2/5-3
Alabama (51): 15-11/6-7, 2/7-3
Minnesota (52): 17-10/7-9, 3/5-6
Belmont (53): 22-4/13-2, 2/3-14
Temple (54): 19-7/9-4, 1/5-7
Seton Hall (64): 16-10/7-7, 3/8-3
Arizona State (66): 18-8/9-5, 4/5-6 (2)
Reaches (16): Lipscomb (47), San Francisco (48), Indiana (57), UNC-Greensboro (60), Memphis (63), Toledo (65), East Tennessee State (68), Davidson (70), Arkansas (71), Dayton (74), South Florida (76), Georgetown (69), Oregon (72), Providence (73), Oregon State (85), Fresno State (93),
Lock Conference Leaders (5): Buffalo, Gonzaga, Nevada, Washington, Wofford
Bubble Conference Leaders (7): VCU, Liberty, Hofstra, ODU, Yale, Murray State, New Mexico State