The American could steal a spot if somehow Houston or Cincy didn't win (Memphis/WSU). Neither of those teams are getting in without winning their tourney.
Memphis/WSU beating Houston seems like a true David vs. Goliath. Houston is unbelievable this year. Kelvin Sampson and the Houston Cougars are 30-2 this year and won their first AAC Tournament game by 40 points.
It's an amazing season, and Kelvin Sampson should be National Coach of the Year. Look at this starting 5:
PG: Corey Davis---- Juco transfer who averages 17 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists per game. Had offers from LA Tech, Louisiana Lafayette, and Western Kentucky.
SG: Armoni Brooks --- Junior averaging 14 points, 7 rebounds per game... Had offers from Nebraska, Cal Poly, Fresno State, Creighton, etc
SG: Galen Robinson --- Senior with offers from Bowling Green, TCU, UTSA, Sam Houston State, Lamar, Citadel, etc.
F- Fabian White --- Sophomore with offers from Florida Gulf Coast, SMU, and UTSA.
F- Breon Brady --- Juco transfer with offers from ASU and Washington State
30-2 with a bunch of nobodies... Shaka Smart at UT can't even put a competent team on the floor and Kelvin Sampson is 30-2 with a bunch of guys nobody wanted....
But that is Kelvin Sampson... He assembles a team. He has a formula. He says you need 3 good players, thats it. Then around 3 good players as your "core" you need a couple shooters, a couple of slashers, a couple of rebounders, etc. From that point its just coaching, defense, toughness, etc.
When he gets his 3 good players and the role players he needs for his system, he's going to win a lot.
Something to be learned in that... Don't always just go chasing the best player you can get. I remember a quote from Capel somewhere that said that.. He is going after the most talented player, regardless of team need. At some schools, that isn't how you win. At others, it is. Capel comes from Duke where you just get all the best talent. At Houston, OU, OSU, and others... You have to put a team together.