OU and the Bubble...

WichitaSooner said:
Holding as an 8 according to Bracket Matrix. Iowa just post to Nebraska, which will hurt their seed. They are in collapse mode.
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Yes....Iowa is in free fall. I would love to see them as our opponent in the 8/9 game.
 
Eielson said:
Tony Bennett is one of the last coaches I'd want to face in the regular season, but one of the first I'd want to see in the NCAA tourney. Year in and year out they underperform. 2016 is the only posteason I would say Bennett's team performed well, and even then, they lost in a 1 vs 10 seed matchup. In 2014 they lost a 1/4 game, in 2015 they lost in a 2/7 game, and then of course, last year they got blown out in a 1/16 game. 2012 and 2017 were they only years they lost to a higher seed, and those were 71-45 and 65-39 beatdowns.

Don't get me wrong, they very well could stifle us and hold us to 40 points, but if Manek or CJ gets hot, they could single handedly shoot us into the game. In Bennett's defense, you're pretty much guaranteed to get upset every year when you're the #1 seed, and getting matched up against Izzo is a tough draw, but they shoulda been able to safely beat UMBC even if their entire starting 5 got food poisoned.
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I want NO part of UVA....I think they are on a mission after last year. And they are a horrible matchup for our undersized and soft-ish inside guys. They would suffocate us.

Having said that, you are right about them. As you pointed out, UVA has very much under-performed with respect to their seed over the last several years. I don't even recall them getting past the sweet 16 under Bennett. I have learned the hard way over several seasons not to pick them in your bracket.

If we have to face a 1-seed, I would rather it be Gonzaga by far. Their defense isn't all that great and they really haven't had much of challenge from anyone in the WCC. Maybe they play down to us and give us a shot....who knows?
 
Winning 1 game in the dance will constitute a successful season, especially considering where we were 2 months ago. But beating a 1/2 seed just isnt in the cards this year. Roster isnt good enough.
 
stormspencer said:
I want NO part of UVA....I think they are on a mission after last year. And they are a horrible matchup for our undersized and soft-ish inside guys. They would suffocate us.

Having said that, you are right about them. As you pointed out, UVA has very much under-performed with respect to their seed over the last several years. I don't even recall them getting past the sweet 16 under Bennett. I have learned the hard way over several seasons not to pick them in your bracket.

If we have to face a 1-seed, I would rather it be Gonzaga by far. Their defense isn't all that great and they really haven't had much of challenge from anyone in the WCC. Maybe they play down to us and give us a shot....who knows?
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Don't get me wrong, I dont expect to beat UVA. In fact, I'm not entirely sure we'd even get past our first opponent. If we're gonna beat a high seed, they're gonna have to lay an egg. Tony Bennett is an expert at laying eggs. There isn't a single 1 or 2 seed that shouldn't beat us by 20.
 
My current view is that OU is 95% assured of being in. The only way they wouldn’t is if

A) They lose to WVU
B) Things go bananas after that

Meaning EVERYTHING breaks against them such as Gonzaga and Wofford not winning conf tourney and other bubble bursters breaking through. Probably would also need all the teams currently behind them on the bubble to go on huge runs.

If we beat WVU that 5% chance goes away and we become 100% locked.

Once we get there? Eh, they certainly don’t look like a dangerous team. But as others have said, winning just one game would validate the season to an extent and make it seem like mission accomplished for this year. So we wouldn’t be asking a lot. I can’t envision OU giving ANY 1-2 seed a run for their money.
 
Well, Temple closed the year by beating UCONN and #25 UCF... They are 23-8 with wins over Georgia, Missouri, Cal, Houston, UCF. Not sure if they need to do more in the AAC tournament other than win their first game against Wichita State/East Carolina to move to 24-8. But getting to the Finals probably wouldn't be a horrible idea for them.

This is one of those deals... a 25 win Temple team or some 16 or 17 win team from a better league. I always tend to side with the 25 win team over some average at best high major.

Otherwise the system seems too skewed toward "high majors", who already have recruiting advantages and other benefits as well... Then they don't even have to win games, just have to play them against a tough schedule and thats half the battle. I'd rather reward a mid-major team any day of the week.
 
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thebigabd said:
Well, Temple closed the year by beating UCONN and #25 UCF... They are 23-8 with wins over Georgia, Missouri, Cal, Houston, UCF. Not sure if they need to do more in the AAC tournament other than win their first game against Wichita State/East Carolina to move to 24-8. But getting to the Finals probably wouldn't be a horrible idea for them.

This is one of those deals... a 25 win Temple team or some 16 or 17 win team from a better league. I always tend to side with the 25 win team over some average at best high major.

Otherwise the system seems too skewed toward "high majors", who already have recruiting advantages and other benefits as well... Then they don't even have to win games, just have to play them against a tough schedule and thats half the battle. I'd rather reward a mid-major team any day of the week.
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As long as the mid-majors schedule a tough OOC and at least compete in the OOC then I am fine with them getting som 50/50 bids against P5.
 
Eielson said:
Tony Bennett is one of the last coaches I'd want to face in the regular season, but one of the first I'd want to see in the NCAA tourney. Year in and year out they underperform. 2016 is the only posteason I would say Bennett's team performed well, and even then, they lost in a 1 vs 10 seed matchup. In 2014 they lost a 1/4 game, in 2015 they lost in a 2/7 game, and then of course, last year they got blown out in a 1/16 game. 2012 and 2017 were they only years they lost to a higher seed, and those were 71-45 and 65-39 beatdowns.

Don't get me wrong, they very well could stifle us and hold us to 40 points, but if Manek or CJ gets hot, they could single handedly shoot us into the game. In Bennett's defense, you're pretty much guaranteed to get upset every year when you're the #1 seed, and getting matched up against Izzo is a tough draw, but they shoulda been able to safely beat UMBC even if their entire starting 5 got food poisoned.
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I'm thinking along these lines too. I'd love to face them. I'm sure we'd lose 56-31 (haha), but from a sheer style standpoint, they would keep us in the game bc they aren't going to drop 88 on us. If we played a Duke or UNC, they would simply outscore us (as dumbed down as that sounds). If we had a shot at a major upset, it would be against a Virginia or a Michigan, who aren't going to score a ton of points, and therefore allow us to hang around, especially if we somehow got hot.
 
Wofford about to close out UNC-Greensboro....so no bid stealing there.

Belmont lost to Ja Morant and Murray State yesterday. However, Belmont has a NET ranking that, at least when Belmont stopped playing, was higher than those of Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, TCU, Temple, Minnesota, Alabama, Arizona State and the entire Big East bubble (Creighton, St. John's, Xavier and Georgetown) You could make a case for Belmont maybe getting in the "first four".

Lipscomb also lost yesterday. But they don't have the profile even to get to the "first four".
 
stormspencer said:
Wofford about to close out UNC-Greensboro....so no bid stealing there.

Belmont lost to Ja Morant and Murray State yesterday. However, Belmont has a NET ranking that, at least when Belmont stopped playing, was higher than those of Iowa, Ohio State, Indiana, TCU, Temple, Minnesota, Alabama, Arizona State and the entire Big East bubble (Creighton, St. John's, Xavier and Georgetown) You could make a case for Belmont maybe getting in the "first four".

Lipscomb also lost yesterday. But they don't have the profile even to get to the "first four".
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Belmont really has no business getting in, but I wouldn't be totally surprised either. Their claim to fame is beating Lipscomb home and away, winning at UCLA (is that even good?) and at Murray St. (who had no business getting in either, if they lost in the finals). Belmont lost twice to Jax St. (yes, I know they were the 3rd best team in the OVC, but still). They lost at Wisc-GB. They also only had to play Murray St. once in conference. They also were 3-2 against Q3 and 17-0 (!) against Q4.

I'm all for giving the little guy a chance, and I know there's the "No one will play us" argument. But, it's the power conferences that won't play them. Go play New Mexico St., go play Temple, go play Toledo, go play Loyola-Chicago, those types of mid-majors more than once. I'm not saying the Indiana's or Ohio State's of the world should get in before the Belmont's, but what would they be if they played their schedule? 27-4? 26-5?

I think far too often we're guilty of seeing a Belmont at 25-6 and we say "How can they be left out with that record?!" And we see Indiana at 17-14 and instantly say "How can they put them in over Belmont?!" But what we don't do is look and see Belmont played 17 games against teams that no at-large team would possibly lose too, while Indiana swept Michigan St. and had four more Q1 wins. I think if we vet it out properly, it's the power conference teams with the modest records that are, for the most part, a lot more deserving than the mid-majors with the gaudy ones. And, conversely, it's only the "give the little guy a chance" mindset that would hold any water in this dicsussion, as opposed to the cold, hard facts.
 
NY Soonerfan said:
Belmont really has no business getting in, but I wouldn't be totally surprised either. Their claim to fame is beating Lipscomb home and away, winning at UCLA (is that even good?) and at Murray St. (who had no business getting in either, if they lost in the finals). Belmont lost twice to Jax St. (yes, I know they were the 3rd best team in the OVC, but still). They lost at Wisc-GB. They also only had to play Murray St. once in conference. They also were 3-2 against Q3 and 17-0 (!) against Q4.

I'm all for giving the little guy a chance, and I know there's the "No one will play us" argument. But, it's the power conferences that won't play them. Go play New Mexico St., go play Temple, go play Toledo, go play Loyola-Chicago, those types of mid-majors more than once. I'm not saying the Indiana's or Ohio State's of the world should get in before the Belmont's, but what would they be if they played their schedule? 27-4? 26-5?

I think far too often we're guilty of seeing a Belmont at 25-6 and we say "How can they be left out with that record?!" And we see Indiana at 17-14 and instantly say "How can they put them in over Belmont?!" But what we don't do is look and see Belmont played 17 games against teams that no at-large team would possibly lose too, while Indiana swept Michigan St. and had four more Q1 wins. I think if we vet it out properly, it's the power conference teams with the modest records that are, for the most part, a lot more deserving than the mid-majors with the gaudy ones. And, conversely, it's only the "give the little guy a chance" mindset that would hold any water in this dicsussion, as opposed to the cold, hard facts.
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I'm with you NY...I wasn't trying to make a case for Belmont...but I think it's kinda funny that the NET metric has them above all of those aforementioned teams. And you're right in that they need to schedule up....even if it's at Temple, Wichita State, Dayton or a team in that realm.

As for the other teams you mentioned....Wednesday is going to be an interesting day in the big conferences. Indiana/Ohio State might very well be a "play-in" game for the NCAA tournament in the Big 10. You could also say the same thing for Clemson/NC State in the ACC as well. And TCU had better take of OSU in KC or they won't be on solid ground either. The Big East is an absolute bubble mess and there will be some casualties. If St. John's loses to Depaul in the 7/10 game....they may be out. And then you have Creighton/Xavier in the 4/5 game....both trying to play their way in. And then you have Georgetown, who is also trying to play their way in, going up against Seton Hall. Much is going to unfold that day.
 
stormspencer said:
As for the other teams you mentioned....Wednesday is going to be an interesting day in the big conferences. Indiana/Ohio State might very well be a "play-in" game for the NCAA tournament in the Big 10. You could also say the same thing for Clemson/NC State in the ACC as well. And TCU had better take of OSU in KC or they won't be on solid ground either. The Big East is an absolute bubble mess and there will be some casualties. If St. John's loses to Depaul in the 7/10 game....they may be out. And then you have Creighton/Xavier in the 4/5 game....both trying to play their way in. And then you have Georgetown, who is also trying to play their way in, going up against Seton Hall. Much is going to unfold that day.
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Absolutely! Especially since OSU and SJU have been in absolute free-falls. The Big East does nothing for me, so I think XU and Creighton have to win several games, as does G'Town, especially since SHU pretty much passed them all with their win Saturday and seems like a lock to me now (12-10 vs. Q1/Q2 teams is pretty bigtime, when compared to other bubble teams).

I think both Clemson and NC St. are both in, though I wouldn't want to sit in the loser's spot after that game either.
 
So far, it appears as if Gonzaga wants the WCC to be a 2-bid league.....at least it looks that way with how they are playing.
 
Saint Mary's steals a bid from someone.....beats Gonzaga by 13.
 
If OU loses twice to a really crappy WVA team I think they will sweating selection.
They better not go into that 1st round Big 12 game thinking things are sewed up for a bid.
 
stormspencer said:
Saint Mary's steals a bid from someone.....beats Gonzaga by 13.
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I kind of thought St. Mary's was OK prior to that game, so I don't view their win as a pure steal of a bid. They definitely weren't a lock, but I had them on the right side of my bubble going in, so I don't think them winning is utter doom to a true bubble team.
 
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