OU and the Bubble...

[WaymanFan]

If we beat KSU on Saturday, I think we can get our first 8/9 seed. It's the only game OU has never been in.

 

[stormspencer]

If we beat KSU on Saturday, I think we can get our first 8/9 seed. It's the only game OU has never been in.

IMO, even if we lose to K-State....we are getting at least a 9-seed (given that we win our Wednesday game in the Big 12 tournament). This is pure speculation on my part, but this is how I see scenarios playing out:

Beat KSU and win 2 in KC: 7 seed....maybe a 6.
Beat KSU and win 1 in KC: 8 seed....maybe a 7.
Beat KSU and win 0 in KC: 8 seed
Lose to KSU and win 2 in KC: 8 seed...maybe a 7.
Lose to KSU and win 1 in KC: 9 seed....maybe an 8.
Lose to KSU and win 0 in KC: 10 seed.

I didn't really factor in any "bid-stealers" from smaller conference tournaments, but those really won't affect our seeding much.

 

[thebigabd]

We must delete this thread. There is no more bubble.

 

[stormspencer]

We must delete this thread. There is no more bubble.

Well....even though OU is no longer in danger, I still enjoy talking about the bubble and who, outside of OU, will make or not make it.....as NYSooner mentioned, there are a few of us bubble nerds and stat geeks on here.

 

[Zimwillett]

We must delete this thread. There is no more bubble.

Yep. Time to start talking seeding. It kind of depends on how some other teams finish, but I get the sense last night all but sealed a spot on the dreaded 8/9 line.

I think in best case scenario (win @ K-State and a run to the finals in KC) the ceiling is a 7 seed. I just think the competition to improve beyond the 7 line is too stiff.

I think the floor (lose @ K-State bounced in the first round in KC) is a 10.

Again, it's impossible to account for all the variables at this stage, but I think that's the range of possible outcomes.

Edit: Just saw stormspencer's comment above and realize I basically said the exact same thing. Need to read the thread before posting

 

[BoulderSooner]

Yep. Time to start talking seeding. It kind of depends on how some other teams finish, but I get the sense last night all but sealed a spot on the dreaded 8/9 line.

I think in best case scenario (win @ K-State and a run to the finals in KC) the ceiling is a 7 seed. I just think the competition to improve beyond the 7 line is too stiff.

I think the floor (lose @ K-State bounced in the first round in KC) is a 10.

Again, it's impossible to account for all the variables at this stage, but I think that's the range of possible outcomes.

Edit: Just saw stormspencer's comment above and realize I basically said the exact same thing. Need to read the thread before posting

win vs ksu and run to the big 12 finals would make OU 23-12 with 3 more Q1 wins ... they would have a shot at a 6 or 5 seed ..

 

[BoulderSooner]

also of note is that currently OU has 1 loss to a team outside the field

 

[Zimwillett]

win vs ksu and run to the big 12 finals would make OU 23-12 with 3 more Q1 wins ... they would have a shot at a 6 or 5 seed ..

I could be wrong as I haven't studied it in detail, but I think 5 is entirely out of the question. First, history tells us that seeding isn't impacted all that much by conference tournaments. And that goes both ways. Just as a couple of wins won't vault OU, a loss probably won't hurt them that much either.

You also have to consider that there are other teams. So in this instance, you have to assume that OU would jump teams like Mississippi State, Villanova, Nevada, Buffalo, Cinci, Louisville, Auburn, Washington, etc. to get up into the 5 seed range. That's just not happening.

If I squint, I could see a scenario where OU got to the back end of the 6 seed line, but I think it's really a stretch.

 

[stormspencer]

I borrowed this from another board and made a few changes, but I thought that it was funny....and could likely occur.

Rank the following in order of likelihood to happen:

- Calipari *****ing about too much emphasis on conference tourney and not enough on full body of work after UK watches Tennessee win the SEC and get a 1 seed while UK gets a 2. He refuses to acknowledge Tennessee won both the regular season and conference tournament titles over his team.

- Vitale *****es after Clemson is left out of the tournament after they upset UNC in the conference tourney. He fails to acknowledge they put up a 8-10 in conference and are 1-10 in Q1 games.

- Vitale *****es after NC State is left out of the tournament despite having a 23-10 record. He fails to acknowledge their SOS is 208, NC SOS is 352, and they're 2-8 in Q1 games.

- Boeheim whines and cries because following losses to Clemson and BC to end the season, his 19-14 team is playing in the First Four game despite having wins at Duke and against Louisville.

- Calipari *****es that there isn't enough emphasis on conference tourney's after his team is the final 1 seed and gets shipped to KC, while Duke who didn't even make the ACC title game, got the Louisville location as the 3rd overall 1 seed. He refuses to acknowledge what happened earlier this season when the two teams met by saying "Come on Seth, that was last year!!"

 

[stormspencer]

I could be wrong as I haven't studied it in detail, but I think 5 is entirely out of the question. First, history tells us that seeding isn't impacted all that much by conference tournaments. And that goes both ways. Just as a couple of wins won't vault OU, a loss probably won't hurt them that much either.

You also have to consider that there are other teams. So in this instance, you have to assume that OU would jump teams like Mississippi State, Villanova, Nevada, Buffalo, Cinci, Louisville, Auburn, Washington, etc. to get up into the 5 seed range. That's just not happening.

If I squint, I could see a scenario where OU got to the back end of the 6 seed line, but I think it's really a stretch.

I agree with you.....a 5 is very likely out of the question for the reasons that you outlined above.....there are just too many teams to jump. But the caveat would be how much the committee "respects" the Big 12 and if they would lend favoritism to a league that is almost universally the #1 conference in the metrics.

And like you said, history suggests that the conference tournaments don't carry much weight in moving a team up or down significantly. The one factor that the committee does seem to use conference tournament results in their decision making is where they send a team....specifically when in comes to the cut line on being a protected seed.

 

[Zimwillett]

I borrowed this from another board and made a few changes, but I thought that it was funny....and could likely occur.

Rank the following in order of likelihood to happen:

- Calipari *****ing about too much emphasis on conference tourney and not enough on full body of work after UK watches Tennessee win the SEC and get a 1 seed while UK gets a 2. He refuses to acknowledge Tennessee won both the regular season and conference tournament titles over his team.

- Vitale *****es after Clemson is left out of the tournament after they upset UNC in the conference tourney. He fails to acknowledge they put up a 8-10 in conference and are 1-10 in Q1 games.

- Vitale *****es after NC State is left out of the tournament despite having a 23-10 record. He fails to acknowledge their SOS is 208, NC SOS is 352, and they're 2-8 in Q1 games.

- Boeheim whines and cries because following losses to Clemson and BC to end the season, his 19-14 team is playing in the First Four game despite having wins at Duke and against Louisville.

- Calipari *****es that there isn't enough emphasis on conference tourney's after his team is the final 1 seed and gets shipped to KC, while Duke who didn't even make the ACC title game, got the Louisville location as the 3rd overall 1 seed. He refuses to acknowledge what happened earlier this season when the two teams met by saying "Come on Seth, that was last year!!"

Nice. You can basically count on Calipari whining about something if/when his team gets anything short of the #1 overall in Louisville. As to the specifics of his complaints, it's hard to say.

Vitale is virtually certain to do the old "[team] won [X number] games, man, they deserve to be in, what the committee did here is an appalling travesty, man." That may apply to NC State, or smaller school that dominated a small conference, or both. But what is certain is he will focus exclusively on the number of wins while completely ignoring other factors.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Listed as the top 9-seed on Bracket Matrix, and I think that was before last night's loss by Baylor, who was an 8. I agree with those who think our seed would improve by a decent amount if we go on a run here, but KSU and Tech are two teams we don't exactly match up well with, so I'm not holding my breath that we could win a couple games against those teams in the span of a week. The 8/9 game looks more and more likely at this point.

 

[stormspencer]

Listed as the top 9-seed on Bracket Matrix, and I think that was before last night's loss by Baylor, who was an 8. I agree with those who think our seed would improve by a decent amount if we go on a run here, but KSU and Tech are two teams we don't exactly match up well with, so I'm not holding my breath that we could win a couple games against those teams in the span of a week. The 8/9 game looks more and more likely at this point.

I think it's certainly possible for us to get to a 7 if we were to beat KSU Saturday and Tech or KSU in KC. But like you said, those are probably the two worst matchups for us in the league....not to mention the two best teams. And I don't think it's out of the question that if we lost to KSU this weekend, but made a mini-run in KC......that we could fight for a 7.

Honestly, I don't like the 8/9 game at all. IMO, the only 1-seed that I think we could play with is Gonzaga. Duke (with Zion) would run us off the court....and UVA and Tennessee/Kentucky would brutalize us from a physical standpoint. As far as the potential 2 seeds.....none of either Michigan, Michigan State, or UNC scare me too much.....they all have warts. We would very likely lose to all of those, but on a good night, we could put a scare into them.

 

[Soonerinkc]

I think it's certainly possible for us to get to a 7 if we were to beat KSU Saturday and Tech or KSU in KC. But like you said, those are probably the two worst matchups for us in the league....not to mention the two best teams. And I don't think it's out of the question that if we lost to KSU this weekend, but made a mini-run in KC......that we could fight for a 7.

Honestly, I don't like the 8/9 game at all. IMO, the only 1-seed that I think we could play with is Gonzaga. Duke (with Zion) would run us off the court....and UVA and Tennessee/Kentucky would brutalize us from a physical standpoint. As far as the potential 2 seeds.....none of either Michigan, Michigan State, or UNC scare me too much.....they all have warts. We would very likely lose to all of those, but on a good night, we could put a scare into them.

No expectations for me...hell, I figured we were dead a few weeks ago. If we can make it past 1st round in the ncaa then I'll be happy...beyond that is total cream.

*edit - I'm tickled pink we are even a strong possibility to get in....nothin in life is certain.

 

[Zimwillett]

I think it's certainly possible for us to get to a 7 if we were to beat KSU Saturday and Tech or KSU in KC. But like you said, those are probably the two worst matchups for us in the league....not to mention the two best teams. And I don't think it's out of the question that if we lost to KSU this weekend, but made a mini-run in KC......that we could fight for a 7.

Honestly, I don't like the 8/9 game at all. IMO, the only 1-seed that I think we could play with is Gonzaga. Duke (with Zion) would run us off the court....and UVA and Tennessee/Kentucky would brutalize us from a physical standpoint. As far as the potential 2 seeds.....none of either Michigan, Michigan State, or UNC scare me too much.....they all have warts. We would very likely lose to all of those, but on a good night, we could put a scare into them.

Just the pure historical numbers bear this out. The 7 seeds advance to round 2 about 60% of the time, and actually beat the 2 seed around 30% of the time.

By contrast, the 8/9 games are a virtual 50/50 dead heat (8 seeds win about 52%). In the second round, the 8 seeds beat a 1 seed just a little shy of 20% of the time, and 9 seeds are 10.5% against 1 seeds.

Put in other terms, 7 seeds have historically won 47.9% of their total games in the entire tournament. 8 seeds have won 43.4% of all of their games in the entire tournament. 9 seeds have won 36.8% of all of their games in the tournament.

So yeah. While it seems like an obvious point, the difference between getting a 7 and an 9 seed is pretty vast from a purely statistical standpoint.

Here's where I got this data:

http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

 

[BoulderSooner]

I borrowed this from another board and made a few changes, but I thought that it was funny....and could likely occur.

Rank the following in order of likelihood to happen:

- Calipari *****ing about too much emphasis on conference tourney and not enough on full body of work after UK watches Tennessee win the SEC and get a 1 seed while UK gets a 2. He refuses to acknowledge Tennessee won both the regular season and conference tournament titles over his team.

- Vitale *****es after Clemson is left out of the tournament after they upset UNC in the conference tourney. He fails to acknowledge they put up a 8-10 in conference and are 1-10 in Q1 games.

- Vitale *****es after NC State is left out of the tournament despite having a 23-10 record. He fails to acknowledge their SOS is 208, NC SOS is 352, and they're 2-8 in Q1 games.

- Boeheim whines and cries because following losses to Clemson and BC to end the season, his 19-14 team is playing in the First Four game despite having wins at Duke and against Louisville.

- Calipari *****es that there isn't enough emphasis on conference tourney's after his team is the final 1 seed and gets shipped to KC, while Duke who didn't even make the ACC title game, got the Louisville location as the 3rd overall 1 seed. He refuses to acknowledge what happened earlier this season when the two teams met by saying "Come on Seth, that was last year!!"

this is really good stuff thanks for posting

 

[BoulderSooner]

Just to put the bubble to bed. OU is not even part of the game day bubble watch discussion

 

[AdaSooner]

Just to put the bubble to bed. OU is not even part of the game day bubble watch discussion

Not surprising. Feels good to be out of the bubble conversation and looking forward to seeding and where we’ll play. Even if we fail to win a game in KC, I don’t think that will change.

 

[Hollisp]

Speaking of bubble: TCU playing like a team that needs a win.

 

[stormspencer]

Speaking of bubble: TCU playing like a team that needs a win.

Texas is on the verge of getting run out of their own gym on Senior Day.