Patrick Stevens partial bracket - Mar 2

[BanjoCharley]

The Washington Post
.


SOUTH REGION

Oklahoma City

(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Hampton
(8) Southern California vs. (9) Providence

Oklahoma City

(5) Purdue vs. (12) SUN BELT/Arkansas-Little Rock
(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) MID-AMERICAN/Akron

Brooklyn

(3) ATLANTIC COAST/Miami vs. (14) CONFERENCE USA/UAB
(6) Iowa State vs. (11) Butler/Michigan

Spokane, Wash.

(7) Wisconsin vs. (10) Alabama
(2) PAC-12/Oregon vs. (15) BIG SKY/Weber State

 

[WaymanFan]

Our only shot at a #1 seed is to run the table...unless all the other top seeds not named Kansas collapse. KU is the only guaranteed #1 seed - even if they lose to ISU at home and in the second round (their first game) of the conference tournament. Everyone else has work to do.

We still have work to do to guarantee a #2 seed. A loss to TCU will put us outside the top 10 in the next poll...lose the next two and we're looking at a #3 seed.

Let's win 'em all and get that #1 seed!

 

[ousooners1baby]

I don't believe that we deserve a 1 seed. However, I am not sure that the nation agrees with me. I'm not sure we need a run as you speak of to stay on the 1 line. We may be in. I don't think I want to lose Saturday and next Thursday to find out though.

 

[TINY]

I think if we go 3-1 or better We have a 1-seed. If we beat Tcu and lose in the first round of the tournament, we are a 2-seed. If we lose against Tcu and in the first round of tourney, we are a 3-seed.

 

[stormspencer]

Our only shot at a #1 seed is to run the table...unless all the other top seeds not named Kansas collapse. KU is the only guaranteed #1 seed - even if they lose to ISU at home and in the second round (their first game) of the conference tournament. Everyone else has work to do.

We still have work to do to guarantee a #2 seed. A loss to TCU will put us outside the top 10 in the next poll...lose the next two and we're looking at a #3 seed.

Let's win 'em all and get that #1 seed!

IMHO, we stand a decent chance of getting a #1 seed if we make the finals of the Big 12 tournament. That would mean that we would have two more quality wins added to our resume. However, it would also depend how three other teams (specifically UNC, Virginia, and Michigan State) fare in their conference tournaments. I consider Xavier and Miami longshots for a #1 seed unless they win their conference tournaments.

A loss to TCU and quarterfinal loss in the Big 12 tournament would have everyone sweating for a #2 seed, but I still believe we would be ok. The next teams in line for a #2 seed (Oregon, Utah, West Virginia) don't have near the resume that we have (high RPI wins, road wins and non-con wins). Those teams would have to win their conference tournaments and we would have to absolutely fall apart as mentioned above, but I still think we would be placed higher than any of those teams regardless.

The committee evaluates the entire season, not just the last three weeks. Although it has been mentioned that the trending/direction of a team can make a difference when teams are close. However, that aspect is usually pertaining to bubble teams and getting into (or not getting into) the tournament.

 

[Sooner-Bred]

Our only shot at a #1 seed is to run the table...unless all the other top seeds not named Kansas collapse. KU is the only guaranteed #1 seed - even if they lose to ISU at home and in the second round (their first game) of the conference tournament. Everyone else has work to do.

We still have work to do to guarantee a #2 seed. A loss to TCU will put us outside the top 10 in the next poll...lose the next two and we're looking at a #3 seed.

Let's win 'em all and get that #1 seed!

Not true at all.

We're a favorite to get one right now IMO.

Compare our resume to UNC, Villanova, and Michigan State.

No one in their right mind could say we don't have a better overall resume than those 3.

 

[WaymanFan]

Not true at all.

We're a favorite to get one right now IMO.

Compare our resume to UNC, Villanova, and Michigan State.

No one in their right mind could say we don't have a better overall resume than those 3.

When is the last time Michigan State lost a game? They're just crushing their opponents now. All three of those teams you mentioned are playing better right now. If we lose to TCU, the next AP and Coaches poll will probably have us ranked around 11 or 12. If we then proceed to lose in the first game of the conference tournament, we'll probably drop to 13 or 14. At that point, the only reason we would get a #3 seed is because of those impressive wins earlier in the season. However, the Committee is not going to be impressed by our resume since the start of the conference season.

Also, if we finish 11-8 in conference counting the conference tournament, a #3 seed would probably be a GIFT. Has a team ever gone 12-8 since the start of the calendar year and secured a #2 seed? I'd be shocked if that has ever been done.

 

[IndySooner]

When is the last time Michigan State lost a game? They're just crushing their opponents now. All three of those teams you mentioned are playing better right now. If we lose to TCU, the next AP and Coaches poll will probably have us ranked around 11 or 12. If we then proceed to lose in the first game of the conference tournament, we'll probably drop to 13 or 14. At that point, the only reason we would get a #3 seed is because of those impressive wins earlier in the season. However, the Committee is not going to be impressed by our resume since the start of the conference season.

Also, if we finish 11-8 in conference counting the conference tournament, a #3 seed would probably be a GIFT. Has a team ever gone 12-8 since the start of the calendar year and secured a #2 seed? I'd be shocked if that has ever been done.

Michigan State had a completely front loaded B1G schedule. They're crushing people because they're not playing anyone.

We have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. To be where we are is impressive if you're not too close to it.

We are disappointed because we wanted more.

 

[152219]

UNC's resume is mediocre. I have no idea why they are a #1 seed in Lunardi's bracketology.

2 wins against the RPI top 25 and only 3 wins against the top 50.

OU has 7 wins against the RPI top 25 and 9 wins against the top 50.

 

[bgrch1350]

As long as we play in OKC in the 1st 2 rounds...I'll be satisfied.

 

[Max Power]

everyone we are competing with for 1 and 2 seeds, besides Kansas, has either less top 25 and 50 wins, worse losses, or both.

 

[bgrch1350]

everyone we are competing with for 1 and 2 seeds, besides Kansas, has either less top 25 and 50 wins, worse losses, or both.

I disagree. We are 4-4 in our last 8 games. 2 of those 4 losses are to Tech and K-St. Losing to 2 unranked teams down the stretch gives us a small chance to be a 1 seed. I think us and Xavier are out unless we win the big 12 tournament.

 

[152219]

I disagree. We are 4-4 in our last 8 games. 2 of those 4 losses are to Tech and K-St. Losing to 2 unranked teams down the stretch gives us a small chance to be a 1 seed. I think us and Xavier are out unless we win the big 12 tournament.

Except the committee dropped the "record in the last 12 games" as a marker years ago.

 

[152219]

Here are the resumes of the power conference teams with 6 or less losses. The first number will be RPI top 25 wins and the second number will be top 50 wins.

Nova- 2, 8
UVA- 6, 8
Oregon- 4, 9
OU- 7, 9
Miami- 4, 9
X- 2, 8
UNC- 2, 3
Maryland- 1, 4
Mich St- 4, 6
Indiana- 1, 5

 

[scrybe]

Some of the predictions here actually make it sound like we lost the Baylor game. Was our second half performance bad? Yes, it was. But no one should expect our stock to fall after we beat the #19 team in the country.

Edit: By the way, 152219's post should help put things in perspective.

 

[152219]

Wins against top 50 teams on the road/neutral site

Nova- 4
UVA- 3
Oregon- 2
OU- 3
Miami- 3
X- 4
UNC- 0
Maryland - 2
Mich St. - 2
Indiana - 2

I'm still not sure how/why UNC is on the #1 line in some brackets. The argument could easily be made that they should be a low #3 seed.

 

[scrybe]

Wins against top 50 teams on the road/neutral site

Nova- 4
UVA- 3
Oregon- 2
OU- 3
Miami- 3
X- 4
UNC- 0
Maryland - 2
Mich St. - 2
Indiana - 2

I'm still not sure how/why UNC is on the #1 line in some brackets. The argument could easily be made that they should be a low #3 seed.

Agree!

 

[152219]

One last comparison. Although I prefer looking at wins before losses, here are the losses for each. The first number will be losses against teams in the 50-99 range in the RPI and the second number will be >100.

Nova- 0, 0
UVA- 4, 0
Oregon - 2, 1
OU - 1, 0
Miami - 0, 3
X- 0, 2
UNC - 1, 0
Maryland - 1, 1 (Minny RPI 240)
Mich St- 0, 1 (loss at home to #169 Nebraska)
Indiana- 0, 3

 

[IndySooner]

Except the committee dropped the "record in the last 12 games" as a marker years ago.

Yep. And for good reason. Michigan State's schedule, for example, was front loaded while our schedule was steady throughout.

 

[152219]

Yep. And for good reason. Michigan State's schedule, for example, was front loaded while our schedule was steady throughout.

In their last 12 games, OU is 8-4 and MSU is 9-3. If you average the RPIs of the teams they have played in those 12 games, MSU's comes out to 100 (99.9) and OU's is 55 (55.0). I would say that is significantly different.