Softball

[SoonerSpock]

Arizona's Katiyana Mauga needs only 4 HR's to tie Lauren Chamerlain's career record of 95 home runs. Arizona host Baylor in the the super-regional in Tucson.

We could handle another Baylor performance like the two no-hitters they threw in the regionals against Kent State and James Madison. Besides I would much prefer to play Baylor more than Arizona in the first round of the WCWS.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_softball_career_50_home_runs_list

 

[cjhsooner]

Arizona's Katiyana Mauga needs only 4 HR's to tie Lauren Chamerlain's career record of 95 home runs. Arizona host Baylor in the the super-regional in Tucson.

We could handle another Baylor performance like the two no-hitters they threw in the regionals against Kent State and James Madison. Besides I would much prefer to play Baylor more than Arizona in the first round of the WCWS.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Division_I_softball_career_50_home_runs_list

That list shows just how dominant Arizona has been over the last 20-30 years (not as much recently).

 

[bob the nailer]

Go Bama roll tide. Don't care much for bama but having #16 take out #1 is a good thing for all the other teams.

 

[SoonerSpock]

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/05/auburn_oklahoma_renew_budding.html#incart_river_index

http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2017/05/auburn_softball_favored_over_d.html

 

[SoonerSpock]

Did some numbers crunching for the series starting today. One of my major concerns is the OU batting style versus the Auburn pitching style. OU, at least since J.T. has been the hitting coach as I cannot speak for Tripp McKay, attempts to swing at the top of the ball and hit ground balls. Auburn's pitching style is to throw to the bottom of the zone with both of their pitcher's big pitch being the drop ball. They want you to hit ground balls and lead the nation in double plays with 47. As a comparison OU has 19 DP's.

The Auburn pitching staff gets 49% of its outs on ground ball, 31% via fly outs and 21% via K's. Conversely get 37% of its outs via the K, 34% ground outs and 29% fly outs. No significant difference in Slg% (.481 vs .445) and OB% (both .404) but the Sooners did hit .319 to Auburn's .281. Auburn takes more pitches and has 84 more walks for the season. OU runs more than Auburn with 77 more stolen bases.

Game could easily be significantly impacted by how tight the umps strike zones is/are. A tight strike zone forces Paige to stay off the edges more giving the Tigers better pitches to hit. With a loose strike zone the Tigers will have to hit balls out of the zone. I see the tigers taking a couple of pitches trying to force Paige to throw strikes.

Conversely the tiger pitchers tend to work the bottom of the zone more so than the edges and a tight zone may not impact them to the degree it would the OU pitchers, especially Paige.

I really don't know what the OU offensive game plan will be but Patty likes to be aggressive at the plate which accounts in part for the Sooners having 30% fewer walks than the tigers. Auburn's defense has given up 44% more unearned runs (18 vs 26).

 

[BlackwellSooner]

Good analysis, Spock. I will be watching today's game with those points in mind. Thanks

 

[womenssports]

That list shows just how dominant Arizona has been over the last 20-30 years (not as much recently).

I remember when they were always so good. Back before the stadium expansion, I remember their teams and fans. They had good fans and the team was fun to watch. But really, it was more fun back then because there was not as much negativity from the fans or not as many fans seated around who wanted to give their opinion on everything in a voice loud enough for those around to hear. I guess the more fans there are the more this becomes the atmosphere.

Anyway, for me, it was more fun back then. Realize others may feel differently.

Actually, the first time I noticed any negativity was before it had expanded and it came from the fans of a team I had not seen at the WCWS before.

Just a little personal reminiscing. Not necessarily interesting.

 

[womenssports]

So, is Auburn starting their ace pitcher today or do they have an ace. I do not recognize her name, which means nothing, but sometimes I will remember a pitcher if we played them the previous year or the current year.

Do they have an outstanding pitcher or two?

 

[SoonerSpock]

Martin was the starting pitcher for Auburn in the championship game and when we played Auburn in Mexico ealier this year. She was projected to be their ace this year but Carlee Carlson became their ace.

http://stats.ncaa.org/team/37/stats?id=12580&year_stat_category_id=11021

 

[womenssports]

Is Fagan the player that made at least one critical error in the WCWS championship?

 

[womenssports]

Martin was the starting pitcher for Auburn in the championship game and when we played Auburn in Mexico ealier this year. She was projected to be their ace this year but Carlee Carlson became their ace.

http://stats.ncaa.org/team/37/stats?id=12580&year_stat_category_id=11021

Thanks. I do not remember her.

 

[sybarite]

The one that screwed up in the World Series last year was Carosone, the second baseman who now plays with Lauren and Shelby, I think. Carlson is their best this year, but we got to her last year in the second game for seven runs, four of which were earned. We didn't hit Martin well in the finale nor in the first game this year.

 

[BlackwellSooner]

Always great to win Game 1. Per the announcers in the aTm vs Tenn game, Game 1 winners go on to advance to the WCWS 82% of the time.

Patty should be able to keep any of the girls from complacency, that was a TOUGH game right up until the 6th inning!

 

[BlackwellSooner]

The one that screwed up in the World Series last year was Carosone, the second baseman who now plays with Lauren and Shelby, I think. Carlson is their best this year, but we got to her last year in the second game for seven runs, four of which were earned. We didn't hit Martin well in the finale nor in the first game this year.

Yep, it doesn't get any easier tomorrow, Carlson owns a 1.22 ERA on the season.

Will Patty go with Paige again tomorrow? My gut says yes.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Yep, it doesn't get any easier tomorrow, Carlson owns a 1.22 ERA on the season.

Will Patty go with Paige again tomorrow? My gut says yes.

I'm inclined to agree with you. I think if the tigers see Paige warming up they will be mentally down a bit giving the Sooners a slight edge.

But should Auburn beat Paige who do you start Sunday. Tough decision for Patty. But in Patty we trust.

 

[sybarite]

I think we will rest Parker.

I look for Lopez to start with a quick hook to Lowary if Lopez runs into trouble. I think we would rather keep Parker fresh for another possible start against Auburn in a third game if necessary. I'm not convinced that Auburn can hit Lowary either, maybe not Lopez. I think we can score against Carlson. LSU got to her for three runs twice, Georgia once for five, Mizzou once for six. She shut out some lesser teams, and Bama. A bit of a hit or miss.

 

[womenssports]

The one that screwed up in the World Series last year was Carosone, the second baseman who now plays with Lauren and Shelby, I think. Carlson is their best this year, but we got to her last year in the second game for seven runs, four of which were earned. We didn't hit Martin well in the finale nor in the first game this year.

Thanks, Syb. I just remembered the name Fagan so was thinking that was why. The thing is I thought the player was a senior last year. Yep, now I recognize the name "Carosone."

So how do their pitchers compare with Tulsa's Emily Watson and, more specifically, to Watson's match-up to OU vs Auburn's pitchers' match-up? Any opinions?

So who does Auburn start tomorrow? Also, I believe we should start Lowrey but think it will be Parker.

Finally, not that it is over, but I am feeling a little less anxious after winning the first game.

 

[sybarite]

I think Watson is better than either of the Auburn starters. But, she doesn't have Auburn behind her.

 

[BlackwellSooner]

Thanks, Syb. I just remembered the name Fagan so was thinking that was why. The thing is I thought the player was a senior last year. Yep, now I recognize the name "Carosone."

So how do their pitchers compare with Tulsa's Emily Watson and, more specifically, to Watson's match-up to OU vs Auburn's pitchers' match-up? Any opinions?

So who does Auburn start tomorrow? Also, I believe we should start Lowrey but think it will be Parker.

Finally, not that it is over, but I am feeling a little less anxious after winning the first game.

I also am wondering what Patty's gonna do.

Auburn will almost certainly start their co-starter Kaylee Carlson, who actually has a better ERA than today's pitcher, Martin.

About Patty: If aggressive and going for the kill, Patty might start Paige again. But if we lose behind Paige, then what for Game 3?

OTOH, if she starts either Lopez or Lowary, it kind of looks like she is kind of conceding Game 2, not going for the throat.

The safer bet, it would seem, would be to keep Paige in reserve if necessary. She was our ace all year, after all.

But sometimes playing not to lose comes back to bite you.
Whattaya think?

 

[sybarite]

You beat them with Lopez and Lowary. Sends a message to the CWS. I don't know that Auburn can hit consistently enough against Lopez or Lowary to beat us. Might score one to three.