Softball

[sybarite]

Last year was simply an example of overranking. Surely, you were astute enough to see that.

It is irrelevant which teams would replace which teams in the top 21. That is why you should have a legitimate formula for the rpi, one that actually gives you some idea (not the rigidity with which the softball committee tends to apply a flawed one). Basketball has a less flawed system, and they tend to use it as a direction rather than as an absolute.

You simply (REPEAT) take the non-conference schedule, weight heavily for where the games are played, and see what emerges. It is doubtful that teams that play only five road games in non-conference play would rank that highly.

If you want very specific (and statistically insignificant) observations, the SEC is weak because one of its leaders, South Carolina, played OU twice and lost both games. Since we are ignoring where the games were played, let's fail to observe that both games were in Norman. On the other hand, Boston beat OU at a neutral site. The Patriot League must be powerful. I hope the point is obvious. We need data from all non-conference games weighted. When I presented data, I presented all Florida and all Georgia non-conference games as well as where those games were played. Too many were at home or in Florida. If Florida had played those games in Michigan or California, would they have the same record.

We probably won''t see Georgia. With Brittany Gray's career ending injury, that was almost like us losing Paige Parker. She was their ace.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Last year was simply an example of overranking. Surely, you were astute enough to see that.

It is irrelevant which teams would replace which teams in the top 21. That is why you should have a legitimate formula for the rpi, one that actually gives you some idea (not the rigidity with which the softball committee tends to apply a flawed one). Basketball has a less flawed system, and they tend to use it as a direction rather than as an absolute.

You simply (REPEAT) take the non-conference schedule, weight heavily for where the games are played, and see what emerges. It is doubtful that teams that play only five road games in non-conference play would rank that highly.

If you want very specific (and statistically insignificant) observations, the SEC is weak because one of its leaders, South Carolina, played OU twice and lost both games. Since we are ignoring where the games were played, let's fail to observe that both games were in Norman. On the other hand, Boston beat OU at a neutral site. The Patriot League must be powerful. I hope the point is obvious. We need data from all non-conference games weighted. When I presented data, I presented all Florida and all Georgia non-conference games as well as where those games were played. Too many were at home or in Florida. If Florida had played those games in Michigan or California, would they have the same record.

We probably won''t see Georgia. With Brittany Gray's career ending injury, that was almost like us losing Paige Parker. She was their ace.

You want to look at only isolated games and circumstances. Teams play full seasons not partial seasons. All their games count with road and home games weighed differently in calculating their winning percentage. The formula for basketball and softball are virtually identical with only slightly different weights for where the game is played.

RPI is strictly a mathematical calculation for both softball, baseball and basketball designed to provide a comparative starting point with subjective consideration provided by the selection committee only on the last (seeding) ranking. The subjective influence is injected by the committee in all RPI sports and is done to use the "eye test" as a check on the computer.

RPI can only be discussed and is only valid when all games are considered equally when weighted by the factors for road and home wins/losses. Trying to isolate and discuss only selected games of a team's schedule is an attempt to speak in half truths when in fact you are attempting to describe something that does not exist.

 

[TulsaWorld]

OU softball finishes sweep with 10-1 win over Kansas

Oklahoma softball earned its fourth consecutive conference series sweep Sunday with a 10-1 victory over Kansas in five innings at Norman.

The win was OU's second straight by run-rule and its 16th run-rule of the season. The Sooners have now won 29 straight games.

Link

 

[SoonerTraveler]

April 16, 2018
Road Swing Begins as OU Heads to Tulsa
http://www.soonersports.com/ViewArt..._LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=31000&ATCLID=211711440&KEY=

NORMAN — No. 2/2 Oklahoma (38-2, 12-0 Big 12) takes a break from conference play this week, hitting the road for games at Tulsa (Tuesday), Oregon (Thursday) and Oregon State (Friday and Saturday).

The Sooners are on a 29-game win streak, the longest active streak in the nation and the second-best streak in program history. OU is also undefeated in true road contests this season (8-0) and has not lost a true road game since 2016, a streak of 36 consecutive wins.

Oklahoma’s trip to Oregon and Oregon State will be the first time in program history the Sooners have played in Eugene or Corvallis.

All three games can be heard on the air via KEBC 1560 AM or online through the Franchise 2. Tuesday’s game will be streamed via Hurricane Vision for premium subscribers, and games on Thursday-Saturday will be broadcast on the Pac-12 Network.

Oregon is ranked #1 in the current RPI rankings / Oregon State is #15
https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/softball/d1/ncaa-womens-softball-rpi

 

[sybarite]

You want to look at only isolated games and circumstances. Teams play full seasons not partial seasons. All their games count with road and home games weighed differently in calculating their winning percentage. The formula for basketball and softball are virtually identical with only slightly different weights for where the game is played.

RPI is strictly a mathematical calculation for both softball, baseball and basketball designed to provide a comparative starting point with subjective consideration provided by the selection committee only on the last (seeding) ranking. The subjective influence is injected by the committee in all RPI sports and is done to use the "eye test" as a check on the computer.

RPI can only be discussed and is only valid when all games are considered equally when weighted by the factors for road and home wins/losses. Trying to isolate and discuss only selected games of a team's schedule is an attempt to speak in half truths when in fact you are attempting to describe something that does not exist.

I keep wondering if there is a website that teaches you to rephrase something in such a way that I have no idea what you are talking about since it is not a citation of anything that I have said.

Let's make it clear, once again. The RPI only becomes an asset if it is weighted in such a way to demonstrate something of significance. It is obvious that home field means a lot. Example, according to the most recent RPI, Tennessee is #9. South Carolina is #10. So, how is it that South Carolina beat Tennessee in all three games (8-7, 5-4, 15-5). How did the #10 team sweep the #9 team. It might have been because they were in South Carolina. They can beat a team that, at the time, was about #3 if they play at home.

For some reason, the current formula for the RPI does not seem to account for the fact that the SEC rarely leaves its home area. It is fascinating that OU hasn't lost a road game in two years. On the other hand, it may seem that long since some SEC teams have played a road game (an obvious, but not extreme observation). Just this week, Georgia, rated above OU, lost at home to Mercer. It wasn't a close game.

Some of these top 22 teams that are SEC teams have home losses to teams like Drake, Cal Fullerton (not a good team this year), and Wisconsin. Kentucky lost two of three at New Mexico State. They can't even beat a NM State on the road.

Get on the road and face some legitimate opposition when you do. Then, we can get a feel for how good the SEC is. The fact that we don't really know is because we have an RPI that simply does not penalize a team for remaining at home.

 

[SoonerSpock]

Again I apologize for talking over your head. I repeat the RPI is weighted to factor game location. For you that means road wins and home losses have a greater impact on the RPI than does road losses and home wins). That accounts for your SEC concerns. Moreover with 75% of RPI being derived from opponent's winning percentage (50%) and opponent's opponent's winning percentage (25%) to comprise SOS it also matters who you play and where which is the basis of OU's demise in the RPI. OU plays too many weak sisters which cannot really be blamed on Patty.

You think there are too many SEC teams in the top 25. So again I ask the question which teams should replace which SEC teams in the top 25 and why? No answer no argument!!!

The Big 12 has #20 Baylor, #25 OSU, #31 Texas, #54 Tech, #60 ISU and #76 Kansas in conference play. The Pac 12 has #1 Oregon, #2 Washington, #3 UCLA, #4 ASU, #11 Arizona, #15 Oregon State, #33 California, #38 Utah and #92 Stanford. The SEC has #5 Florida, #8 Georgia, #9 Tennessee, #10 South Carolina, #12 A&M, #13 LSU, #14 Auburn, #16 Alabama, #17 Arkansas, #19 Kentucky, #21 MSU, #22 Missouri and #35 Ole Miss.

Both the Pac 12 and the SEC play 24 conference games which means that each team plays against 12 teams ranked in the top 25 and most play 15 such games with half of those games road games. That is 12 road games against top quality opposition. In the Big 12 plays 18 conference games you play at most 6 games against top 25 teams and many play only 3.

Now listen carefully SOS accounts for 75% of RPI (I think 60% would be a much better %). But who you play (top 25 opponents, half on the road) has more impact on RPI than where you play a half dozen non-conference road games of which only 4 (Arizona, ASU, South Carolina and South Carolina) have been top 25 opponents. We could get maybe 6 more in conference with OSU and Baylor and 3 non-conference (Oregon, Oregon State and Oregon State) for a total of 13 top 25 opponents for the season.

Every Pac 12 and SEC school plays that many top 25 teams and perhaps as many a 5 more in their conference. Plus most of their top teams will play an additional 4 top 25 teams (Washington 4, Oregon 9, UCLA 5, ASU 3, Florida 6, Georgia 2, Tennessee 4 and South Carolina 2) out of conference for a total of 18-23 top 25 opponents. That is 8-10 more quality opponents on average than the Sooners play and about 7-10 more top 25 road games than the Sooners play.

The RPI if far from perfect but contrary to your wishes it does quantify all home, neutral and road games with what is deemed as appropriate weighting. It also factors inwho you play (SOS) into their system. It is the later that is the demise of the B1G and Big 12 schools and works to the favor of the Pac 12 and SEC schools. But it does so only because of the quality of play in each conference not because of a system fault.

Your failure to grasp the concept and formulation of the RPI after multiple links providing documentation speaks not of the limits of the RPI but your limited ability to grasp the facts. You can lead a horse to water but you cannot make him drink. I am out!

 

[sybarite]

If weighted at all, it is inadequate. I thought you only had seen that it was weighted for basketball. It is obviously not weighted enough, if at all. Home field has more of an advantage than they have included, or the SEC wouldn't be so highly ranked. They almost never leave home.

You can't win this one unless you can show appropriate weighting.

 

[SoonerSpock]

If weighted at all, it is inadequate. I thought you only had seen that it was weighted for basketball. It is obviously not weighted enough, if at all. Home field has more of an advantage than they have included, or the SEC wouldn't be so highly ranked. They almost never leave home.

You can't win this one unless you can show appropriate weighting.

Pure assumptions on your part. For the season Florida will play 18 true road games, Tennessee 19, Georgia 12, Washington 19, UCLA 16, Oregon 14 .OU will play 14. Only Georgia plays fewer road games than the Sooners. What you and I feel has no bearing on anything. The more probable explanation is the overly strong 75% SOS factor which mitigates the team winning percent factor of 25% in the RPI.

I personally think but cannot document as the calculations are too voluminous to calculate manually that winning % should amount to 40% instead of 25%. Other adjustments I think I would recommend is an opponent's winning percentage of 40% and opponent's opponent's winning percentage of 20%.

But my thoughts like yours are a mere gut feel. It is logical that with the RPI committee frequently reassessing the effectiveness of their system they will continue as they have in the past to modify the formula and the formula weights to reflect a better and more accurate evaluation of the teams under consideration as they obtain new data.

I also think as I am sure you do that the system needs better transparency so fans can fully understand every miniscule facet of their calculations. The NCAA doesn't see it that way. But I feel certain they do discuss and share every detail of the RPI with member schools as I am sure the schools demand such.

We can disagree with the RPI but its success at achieving its charter to seed the top teams can be documented by looking at the correlation between seedings and WCWS results 10 to 20 years and that correlation is high. It is those results that confirm the RPI is an effective means of seeding Division I softball teams. That cannot be denied despite the occasional mistakes it makes like Minnesota and OU last year. Likewise it means that the process needs to be continually evaluated and enhanced when documentation supports needed changes. The RPI must forever remain a dynamic process.

 

[TulsaWorld]

NORMAN — Somewhere Darin Arnold is smiling down at his baby girl.

Oklahoma senior shortstop Kelsey Arnold lost her father to leukemia nearly three years ago. But she didn’t lose his engaging spirit, competitive drive and love for softball.

“I’m so thankful for the opportunity and the times that we had growing up playing softball,” said Arnold, a Holland Hall graduate. “Even in the backyard just hitting ground balls to me, some of those things I will cherish forever.

“Sometimes I wish I would be able to talk to him today and say thank you for pushing me, but I know that he’s watching down and just happy that it’s my senior year and I’m trying to end with a bang.”

Arnold is a team captain for the two-time defending national champion Sooners, who play at Tulsa on Tuesday. The 6 p.m. game has been sold out for a month.

Link

 

[SoonerSpock]

OU beats Tulsa 1-0 on Alo Hr in the 3rd inning. Both teams had 3 hits. Lopez gets the win Lowary the save. Lowary gave up a single in the bottom of the 7th then struckout the side.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

OU beats Tulsa 1-0 on Alo Hr in the 3rd inning. Both teams had 3 hits. Lopez gets the win Lowary the save. Lowary gave up a single in the bottom of the 7th then struckout the side.

OU sophomore pitcher Mariah Lopez improved her record to 13-0 for the 2018 season, and improved her ERA to 1.17 with 5.1 shutout innings tonight. As a junior in 2019, she will be a candidate to be the OU ace.

That was a tough game, as Tulsa's pitcher (Emily Watson) has a history of giving OU a tough battle. Thank goodness for the long ball from Alo.

 

[SoonerSpock]

OU sophomore pitcher Mariah Lopez improved her record to 13-0 for the 2018 season, and improved her ERA to 1.17 with 5.1 shutout innings tonight. As a junior in 2019, she will be a candidate to be the OU ace.

That was a tough game, as Tulsa's pitcher (Emily Watson) has a history of giving OU a tough battle. Thank goodness for the long ball from Alo.

I know there has been some expression of concern on various websites about OU's pitching in 2019 after Parker and Lowary graduate. While I acknowledge that Lopez has only thrown about half the innings of Parker and slightly more than Lowary we should also note that Lopez's current ERA of 1.17 is quite a bit better than Paige Parker had her first three years at OU (1.65, 1.64 and 1.43). It should also be mentioned that Lopez's ERA last year was 2.08. This year it is 1.17. That is a significant improvement. Something Parker never did until her senior season.

The thing Parker brings to the game that is still to be determined about Lopez is how she will pitch in big games with a lot on the line. Parker, of course, has just been money in the bank. Yesterday's game at Tulsa was an indication that Lopez can be too. I am definitely hoping we see that surface in this spring's run to a 3-peat.

 

[TulsaWorld]

When Jocelyn Alo signed to play softball at Oklahoma, coach Patty Gasso thought she might have landed a star in the making.

“I think she is going to be a pitcher’s nightmare,” Gasso said. “I think she has the ability to swing it like Lauren Chamberlain after she’s had training.”

What seemed like high expectations for a player drawing early comparisons to Chamberlain — the NCAA’s all-time home-run leader — have been surpassed. The freshman sensation ranks second nationally in home runs (19) and slugging (0.991).

“She’s going to get her strikeouts, but she’s probably the most mature and versed hitter at this age that I’ve seen and that’s saying a lot with names like Lauren Chamberlain and so forth in our program,” Gasso said. “Every time she swings, everybody makes some kind of sound, whether she hits it or not.

“It’s really fun to watch her take her swing. She’s incredibly strong, but she’s learning a lot about the game and becoming a very, very good hitter.”

Link

 

[TheMont]

Of all the amazing teams that this program has seen, this year's team has the best start in program history. Soak it in, folks! We're in for an amazing ride. Fingers crossed we can keep it going and get a huge win at Oregon on Thursday!

 

[SoonerTraveler]

I know there has been some expression of concern on various websites about OU's pitching in 2019 after Parker and Lowary graduate. While I acknowledge that Lopez has only thrown about half the innings of Parker and slightly more than Lowary we should also note that Lopez's current ERA of 1.17 is quite a bit better than Paige Parker had her first three years at OU (1.65, 1.64 and 1.43). It should also be mentioned that Lopez's ERA last year was 2.08. This year it is 1.17. That is a significant improvement. Something Parker never did until her senior season.

The thing Parker brings to the game that is still to be determined about Lopez is how she will pitch in big games with a lot on the line. Parker, of course, has just been money in the bank. Yesterday's game at Tulsa was an indication that Lopez can be too. I am definitely hoping we see that surface in this spring's run to a 3-peat.

Agreed.

OU Football: Quarterback is the most important position. I have no worries that Coach Lincoln Riley will have a top-flight quarterback, year-in and year-out. This does not mean that the next starting QB will be as productive or successful as Baker Mayfield, but I will not lose sleep worrying that the OU QB will be a very good player.

OU Softball: Pitcher is the most important position. I have no worries that Coach Gasso will have a top-flight Ace Pitcher, year-in and year-out. This does not mean that the next Ace will be as productive or successful as Parker, but I will not lose sleep worrying that the Ace Pitcher will be a very good player.

Coaches that win Big-12 Championships and contend for national championships know where their bread is buttered. Coach Gasso will have elite pitchers, and that is an easy prediction. Now how those pitchers will perform on the biggest stage is always an unknown, before it happens.

So what? Why would anyone worry about that? It ain't easy to be a champion. Enjoy the ride!

 

[TulsaWorld]

Forgot to mention earlier: Gallery of 23 photos of last night's game here.

 

[TulsaWorld]

Oklahoma

Record: 39-2, 12-0 Big 12

Looking ahead: The Sooners play Thursday against No. 4 Oregon and Friday and Saturday against Oregon State. The Sooners travel to North Texas on Wednesday.

Link

 

[SoonerSpock]

Parker not sharp. Surrenders 2 run HR in the first and a solo blast in the 3rd. OU down 0-5 with 1 hit through 5 innings. Oregon Kleist very sharp. Sooners need to get something going asap. Oregon has 11 hits getting 4 against Parker and 7 against Lopez. The ducks look far the better team to this point in time.

The Sooners have not been playing their "A" game for their last 8 games. This game will not help the OU RPI.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

The Sooners have not been playing their "A" game for their last 8 games.

Agree. I guess it is better to have a "slump" now, rather than in the post season.

Through 6 innings, the Oregon pitcher has faced the minimum number of OU batters .. 18. OU's lone base hit got wiped out by a double play. OU's lone base-on-balls was wiped out as the base runner was out trying to steal second.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

(4-19-2018) FINAL .. Oregon wins 5-0

Oregon played like the #1 ranked team in the RPI.

Paige Parker takes the loss and is now 21-2 on the season.

Oregon’s Megan Kleist pitched a complete game one-hitter, and is now 14-5 on the season.

Oregon had 5 runs on 11 hits, and had 8 base runners left-on-base.
OU had no runs on 1 hit, and had zero base runners left-on-base.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=203951