Softball

[tycat947]

http://i.turner.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/external/gametool/brackets/softball_d1_2016.pdf

I must admit that I never thought that this OU team would get a #3 seed until the Big Twelve season began. We were not a top fifteen team in pre-season play. It seemed like the Baylor series turned everyone on. The pitching became sensational, and the hitting became effective. Now, this team is good enough to earn a #3 seed.

We don't have the easiest bracket. Tulsa, Ole Miss, and Wichita State can beat you. I am glad that we aren't playing Louisiana-Lafayette on their field.

I'm still trying to figure out how last years 45-7 team was seeded 11th and this years 47-7 team is 3rd. I just don't see that much difference in the 2 teams. I am really surprised with SEC bias that we are seeded 3rd this year, although I'm pleasantly surprised. Did they try to make up for screwing us last year?

 

[SoonerNorm]

http://soonersports.com/fls/31000/microsites/ncaa/16sb_ncaa_regional.html

 

[scrybe]

I'm still trying to figure out how last years 45-7 team was seeded 11th and this years 47-7 team is 3rd. I just don't see that much difference in the 2 teams. I am really surprised with SEC bias that we are seeded 3rd this year, although I'm pleasantly surprised. Did they try to make up for screwing us last year?

I, for one, wasn't surprised that OU got the 3-seed. We deserved it, of course, but also for exactly the reason you suggested in your post. It was apparent to many folks that OU should never have been seeded so low last year – and the committee would have had some "splainin" to do had they pulled such a trick again this year.

But make up for it? Nah; how do you go back and "unscrew" someone after you've already had your fun?

 

[SoonerSpock]

I'm still trying to figure out how last years 45-7 team was seeded 11th and this years 47-7 team is 3rd. I just don't see that much difference in the 2 teams. I am really surprised with SEC bias that we are seeded 3rd this year, although I'm pleasantly surprised. Did they try to make up for screwing us last year?

I think Speedy 17 answered your question in an earlier post on this thread:

"Last year, OU was 4-6 against Top 25 teams (2-5 outside the Big 12) during the regular season. This year OU is 8-3 (5-3 outside the Big 12) against Top 25 teams. That is the RPI difference between last year and this year.

This year the Committee gave out the Top Ten on Saturday night and OU was placed #3. You can tell how important the RPI is from last year and this year's Committee ratings".

Also we got a little break during the SEC tournament this past week. Alabama had jumped us in the RPI dropping OU to #4 in the RPI. Fortunately for OU Bama lost to Auburn in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. Auburn which was ranked #8 in the RPI went on to win their tournament but was too far down to overtake OU. Auburn jumped to #4 seed up from #8 in the RPI and Alabama fell from #3 RPI ranking to the #6 seed.

You need to note that the May 16 RPI is significantly different than the seedings for the tournament because of external factors (conference championships, wins vs top 25, 26-50 and 51-100 etc.). For instance Oregon was the #9 in the RPI behind #8 Washington however Oregon won the Pac 12 conference championship was seeded #5 and Washington #11. Four teams (Florida, Michigan, OU and James Madison) were ranked the same in both polls.

 

[SoonerNorm]

I think Speedy 17 answered your question in an earlier post on this thread:

"Last year, OU was 4-6 against Top 25 teams (2-5 outside the Big 12) during the regular season. This year OU is 8-3 (5-3 outside the Big 12) against Top 25 teams. That is the RPI difference between last year and this year.

This year the Committee gave out the Top Ten on Saturday night and OU was placed #3. You can tell how important the RPI is from last year and this year's Committee ratings".

Also we got a little break during the SEC tournament this past week. Alabama had jumped us in the RPI dropping OU to #4 in the RPI. Fortunately for OU Bama lost to Auburn in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament. Auburn which was ranked #8 in the RPI went on to win their tournament but was too far down to overtake OU. Auburn jumped to #4 seed up from #8 in the RPI and Alabama fell from #3 RPI ranking to the #6 seed.

You need to note that the May 16 RPI is significantly different than the seedings for the tournament because of external factors (conference championships, wins vs top 25, 26-50 and 51-100 etc.). For instance Oregon was the #9 in the RPI behind #8 Washington however Oregon won the Pac 12 conference championship was seeded #5 and Washington #11. Four teams (Florida, Michigan, OU and James Madison) were ranked the same in both polls.

Exactly!

 

[sybarite]

3 Oklahoma
48 Wichita State

39 Tulsa
30 Mississippi

17 Texas A&M
28 Texas

137 Boston
10 Louisiana Lafayette

I would have felt a bit better if they had switched Wichita State and Boston. But, Louisiana Lafayette may have difficulty with A&M. I don't think Texas is a contender.

1 Florida
238 Alabama State

22 Florida Atlantic
33 UCF

31 Oklahoma State
45 Northwestern

135 Maine
19 Georgia

Other than Alabama State, I was surprised at the Florida draw. Florida Atlantic and UCF are probably close to Louisiana-Lafayette in strength.

 

[scrybe]

3 Oklahoma
48 Wichita State

39 Tulsa
30 Mississippi

17 Texas A&M
28 Texas

137 Boston
10 Louisiana Lafayette

I would have felt a bit better if they had switched Wichita State and Boston. But, Louisiana Lafayette may have difficulty with A&M. I don't think Texas is a contender.

1 Florida
238 Alabama State

22 Florida Atlantic
33 UCF

31 Oklahoma State
45 Northwestern

135 Maine
19 Georgia

Other than Alabama State, I was surprised at the Florida draw. Florida Atlantic and UCF are probably close to Louisiana-Lafayette in strength.

Since they gave Florida an almost guaranteed walkover in the first round game, perhaps they thought they needed to make it just a wee bit tougher for the Gators thereafter?

I know there was a tremendous difference in RPI between each of the 1 and 2 seeds and their first round opponents. Even 4-seed Auburn had a bigger difference in RPI (53) than #3 OU had over Wichita State (45).

 

[Speedy17]

I am fine with the bracket. OU has done quite well over time with Wichita and Tulsa. The most important thing is the home field so the #3 is huge. The rest of the bracket is about geography almost exclusively. I think it was 2007 that OU was the #1 overall seed and was sent to UMass for a regional. The NCAA Tournament Director told me that it was because of geography. There was not enough teams in our region to play at home. A cost saving measure by our favorite - the NCAA. At least we have gotten to the point that if you are seeded then geography doesn't matter - you are playing at home.

 

[scrybe]

I am fine with the bracket. OU has done quite well over time with Wichita and Tulsa. The most important thing is the home field so the #3 is huge. The rest of the bracket is about geography almost exclusively. I think it was 2007 that OU was the #1 overall seed and was sent to UMass for a regional. The NCAA Tournament Director told me that it was because of geography. There was not enough teams in our region to play at home. A cost saving measure by our favorite - the NCAA. At least we have gotten to the point that if you are seeded then geography doesn't matter - you are playing at home.

Agree, Speedy, as I stated in a previous post:
I'm pleased that our Sooners are the No. 3 seed, and as long as they keep winning will essentially get to stay home through the entire tournament.

I had forgotten about OU being sent to the east coast as the No. 1 seed. And yes, I'm certain we'll do fine with WSU, Tulsa and Ole Miss in our bracket.

 

[scrybe]

The following Top 10 team stats show why OU will be a tough out in the postseason:

1st – Batting Avg. – .359

1st – Fielding Pct. – 0.984 (tie/Florida)

5th – W/L Pct. – 0.870

6th – Slugging Pct. – 0.553

9th – On-base Pct. – 0.436

The Sooners are also: 12th in scoring (7 runs per game), and 16 in team ERA (2.15).

 

[sybarite]

While it is possible that the SEC was overrated, I do think the Big Twelve was overrated. The only team anywhere near comparable to OU was Baylor, and they were swept in Waco. Baylor ended up scoring more runs than OU in conference play. As in basketball, Baylor was really good at beating up on bottom feeders. OU didn't kill the Iowa States. Baylor did.

But, Stevens was second in the Big Twelve in ERA. She wasn't given much of a chance to fail, being pulled when she had problems. But, from what I saw, she was about as good as anyone not named Paige. Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech did not have one pitcher as good as Jayden Chestnut or Brit Finney. We should have used a lend-lease program to get them some experience.

I suspect that we might find that the Big Ten and Pacific Twelve teams are a bit stronger than they look on paper. I think both are better hitting conferences than is the SEC.

What surprised me is that with so many freshmen, we were good at winning the close games: Baylor, Alabama, etc.

 

[SoonerSpock]

While it is possible that the SEC was overrated, I do think the Big Twelve was overrated. The only team anywhere near comparable to OU was Baylor, and they were swept in Waco. Baylor ended up scoring more runs than OU in conference play. As in basketball, Baylor was really good at beating up on bottom feeders. OU didn't kill the Iowa States. Baylor did.

But, Stevens was second in the Big Twelve in ERA. She wasn't given much of a chance to fail, being pulled when she had problems. But, from what I saw, she was about as good as anyone not named Paige. Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech did not have one pitcher as good as Jayden Chestnut or Brit Finney. We should have used a lend-lease program to get them some experience.

I suspect that we might find that the Big Ten and Pacific Twelve teams are a bit stronger than they look on paper. I think both are better hitting conferences than is the SEC.

What surprised me is that with so many freshmen, we were good at winning the close games: Baylor, Alabama, etc.

I agree with your assessment but my biggest concern is we finished the season leaving too many runners on base. Against quality teams you have to take care of scoring opportunities. Over our last twelve games against mostly weak opponents we left 6, 8, 9, 9, 7, 11, 13, 7, 7, 5, 9 and 7 on base. We scored 2 runs against Lipscomb and had 9 LOB. Against ISU we score 4 and have 9 LOB. Against Tulsa we score 4 and have 13 LOB. We have to avoid those games and leaving the bases loaded without scoring. It will get you beat against top 16 ranked teams.

Multiple times we did not score with the bases loaded and no outs or one out. This was against relative week competition as only OSU, Tulsa and Tennessee were quality opponents during this stretch. We need to get better at taking full advantage of scoring opportunities.

 

[SoonerNorm]

Our regional is sold out.

 

[sybarite]

I agree with your assessment but my biggest concern is we finished the season leaving too many runners on base. Against quality teams you have to take care of scoring opportunities. Over our last twelve games against mostly weak opponents we left 6, 8, 9, 9, 7, 11, 13, 7, 7, 5, 9 and 7 on base. We scored 2 runs against Lipscomb and had 9 LOB. Against ISU we score 4 and have 9 LOB. Against Tulsa we score 4 and have 13 LOB. We have to avoid those games and leaving the bases loaded without scoring. It will get you beat against top 16 ranked teams.

Multiple times we did not score with the bases loaded and no outs or one out. This was against relative week competition as only OSU, Tulsa and Tennessee were quality opponents during this stretch. We need to get better at taking care of scoring opportunities.

It seemed like that a lot. Yet, how many times did we see a Pendley or Clifton getting a huge hit to win the game? We won games with many different players emerging from a team lethargy with a big hit, often a home run, to win a game. What made us effective during that win streak was that we found so many different ways to break a game open. We won those 2-0 games while so many teams lost them.

 

[Speedy17]

A big part of it is having great hitting (tied for #1 in the nation), good fielding (tied for #1 in the nation), and great pitching (#17 in ERA). Not many teams bring all three to the table. Patti knew the incoming talent that she had in the incoming class.

 

[sybarite]

NCAA teams that OU has played

Oklahoma State
Utah
Long Beach State
Baylor
Fresno State
Cal State Fullerton
UCLA
Tennessee
Oregon State
Wichita State
Tulsa
Texas
Washington
Minnesota
Alabama
BYU
Nebraska
Michigan

17 teams, 26 games, 20-6

 

[sybarite]

359 BA
356 BA with runners on base
349 BA with runners in scoring position
396 BA vs left-handed pitchers
353 BA vs right-handed pitchers
324 BA with two outs
326 BA with two runners on base
326 BA with runners in scoring position
258 BA with bases loaded

 

[SoonerMGB56]

359 BA
356 BA with runners on base
349 BA with runners in scoring position
396 BA vs left-handed pitchers
353 BA vs right-handed pitchers
324 BA with two outs
326 BA with two runners on base
326 BA with runners in scoring position
258 BA with bases loaded

I too worry about the LOB. Although it can be deceiving, as part of it is the fact that with our BA and OBP, we get so many on base. Statistically, you're going to leave 65% of those on base. But the many of the best batting teams (e.g. Michigan and Oregon) are better than us at this, and part is power.

We've hit 30 or more homeruns fewer than the top power teams, e.g. Auburn, Oregon, Michigan, ULL. Couple that with the fact that our number two pitcher is less dependable than many others, and I suspect we don't have enough to take it all the way this year. But perhaps the scrappiness will prevail.

I do think we'll find a way to make it to OKC, although U La La is will be a difficult super matchup.

I think this team can go as far as Stevens/Chestnut take them. I those two perform well behind Paige, we could do very well. If not, just making it to the WCWS could be this team's ceiling. Paige can take them a long way, but at some point, you'd have to expect we'll need one, or both of the other two to step up.

However, having said all that, the future is bright. We can reasonably expect the freshman to improve. I think Knighten and Aviu will develop into 17-20 HR hitters, possibly as early as next year. I think Romero and even Clifton can be double digit HR hitters. With young Gasso as hitting coach, we may not see 25 HR seasons, unless we have some ladies with prodigious power coming in next year and beyond. He (young Gasso) seems to favor line drive "power" and coaches them to drive the ball and stay on top of it. But I expect we will see this team get up into the 75-80 HR neighborhood, possibly next year.

On the pitching side, I think Finney and Chestnut can improve to where they're better than Stevens has been the last two years, and those "in-the-know" rave about next year's incoming pitchers. If those pitchers are as advertised, and if next years class has one or more power hitters that can hit for average also, at the college level, these ladies could quickly morph into something like the 2012/2013 teams.

Long winded, I know. But I guess I'm excited about the prospects for this team.

 

[scrybe]

Good post, SoonerMG. I tend to disagree, however, regarding this team's ceiling. You're right; the Sooners don't have the power of some of the other top teams and they do tend to leave quite a few runners on base. But they are as sound defensively as any team in the NCAA.

Great defense is as crucial to a team's success as pitching and hitting. And these young Sooner players can flat out play defense. When I try to judge the quality of OU's infield and outfield play, I have a hard time finding a weak link. If OU has a defensive weakness, it may be at pitcher, where Paige isn't as quick getting to the ball as some smaller pitchers.

I agree that this team is not as good as it will be next year. And I'm not predicting these Sooners will win the CWS. But I do believe they're good enough to beat any team in the country – and they're playing awfully well at this point of the season.

 

[sybarite]

OU hits better with runners in scoring position than most teams hit under any circumstances. We lack a little power this year, but we are #12 in scoring, ranking ahead of #1 Florida. We score enough. Michigan, Auburn, and Oregon do outscore us. But, Tennessee outscores us as well. I think I remember a time when Tennessee didn't outscore us, and Auburn followed that with two successive run-rule losses to that Tennessee team.

In Big Twelve play, Baylor outscored OU, by a lot. Let's see, when we played them in Waco, they didn't score at all for two games. The fact that Baylor kept beating Iowa State 17-0 while we only beat them 8-0 means Baylor scores a lot when it isn't needed, but not so much when they do need it.

Louisiana-Lafayette is a team that outscored us. I would be greatly impressed by their 13-0 and 16-0 wins at UTA if they hadn't lost at UTA 3-1. They also bombed Georgia Southern 5-0 and 12-1, before losing 2-0. It's those little losses that we have kept avoiding. We seem to find a way to score enough to win 21 in a row.

I don't know how far we will go. In softball, Paige can have an off night, and we can get beat. Koufax could be beaten. An opposing pitcher can have one of those perfect nights when everything clicks. But, I think the probability is that OU will go to the World Series. At that level, it is really all about who is hot. A team with a hot pitcher can win two games and jump out in control. We have one advantage. Nobody knows who will be our hot hitter. The key hit may be by Pendley, or Knighten, or Self. It might be by Hatfield.