The Bubble

[pnkranger]

We are not even on it right now. We are totally inside it...that warps my mind. I never thought we would be at this point with our easiest stretch run of games ahead of us.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

The biggest game right now is Texas Tech. Every win is precious. Road wins are precious. Win ugly. Win pretty. Does not matter. Just win.

No potential 8-seed can take anything for granted at this point. Sooners need a strong finish. For this reason, the game in Lubbock is a big game.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

We are not even on it right now. We are totally inside it...that warps my mind. I never thought we would be at this point with our easiest stretch run of games ahead of us.

I agree. Back in November, I was hopeful OU would be a bubble team in mid-February.

 

[IndySooner]

I agree. Back in November, I was hopeful OU would be a bubble team in mid-February.

That was my best-case scenario. This season has been a gem for me.

 

[pnkranger]

That was my best-case scenario. This season has been a gem for me.

If we make the tourney, especially considering Hield's injury, it will be a really nice surprise. I would have been happy with an NIT berth.

 

[WTSooner]

This season is a perfect example of why preseason predictions are so difficult.

I really believe that the Big 12 being down, overall, as a conference has helped OU a bit. KU isn't KU. Baylor has been pretty bad. UT has struggled mightily without Kabongo.

I also think at the beginning of the year, had I told you two of our three freshmen would be averaging 5 points or less per game, and that Osby and Pledger would be our two leading scorers, most would probably have thought we'd be struggling a bit.

This team has really come together, but it's done so in a way that I don't think anybody really predicted. We've had a lot of moving pieces all season, from the changes at PG, to Cam moving inside for a bit, to dealing with Hield's injury.

I thought this team's upside, before the season started, was an NCAA bubble team. We might finish a game or two better than that, which I attribute to the Big 12 being down a bit.

 

[pnkranger]

WT, you're right. The interesting thing is that we're a much more balanced team than I expected. We're not amazing defensively or offensively, but are well balanced on both ends of the court, which means we won't blow any good teams out, but that we're also going to be a pest every game. Ken Pom has us listed as 53 offensively and 51 defensively.

The other thing, which I don't think you can measure, is our poise. Those early season road games tested us, and Lon's influence is obvious in our steady play. Iowa State game aside (we had no energy), we have been unflappable all year, regardless of time, score, momentum, etc.

Heck, we lost arguably our best perimeter player, then went on the road to our bitter rival with a full house of angry fans, and almost stole a win.

Depth is the other key. Andrew Fitzgerald, Cameron Clark, and Sam Grooms have all played HUGE roles this year in bridging the learning gaps for the new players. Those three should be applauded as loudly as Osby, Buddy, etc.

 

[WTSooner]

WT, you're right. The interesting thing is that we're a much more balanced team than I expected.

The other thing, which I don't think you can measure, is our poise.

Agreed on both of those points. The poise stuff has really shown up of late. You can really see LK's coaching starting to take hold. There is definitely a lot to like about the product we are putting on the floor this year.

 

[garyeb2]

OU is better this year because they are playing good defense. Last year they were just terrible. They were at or near the bottom in every statistical category and their on court results validated those stats.

They are better because of a major infusion of talent. M'Baye, Hield, Cousins, and Hornbeak are long, athletic, and can sure enough defend.

When asked last week Tubbs said, "they defend about as well as anyone and on the days they are shooting well they can compete with just about anyone just about anywhere."

 

[MNsooner]

OU is better this year because they are playing good defense. Last year they were just terrible. They were at or near the bottom in every statistical category and their on court results validated those stats.

They are better because of a major infusion of talent. M'Baye, Hield, Cousins, and Hornbeak are long, athletic, and can sure enough defend.

When asked last week Tubbs said, "they defend about as well as anyone and on the days they are shooting well they can compete with just about anyone just about anywhere."

You couldn't be more right. We have made some small strides offensively, but mostly we are a better, more athletic, longer team that rarely gives up easy shots. When we do give up easy shots it is because of a mistake not because a guy is getting beat. With as many new guys as we have, I expect us to keep getting better on defense. In my opinion, most of our offensive improvements have come from our defense. Regardless, it is fun watching us keyed in on defense. For stretches we just lock teams down and then get to get out and run a little bit. Kruger is a much better defensive coach than I realized. Give him athletes and he will have them getting stops.

 

[WTSooner]

Statistically, we've actually improved more on offense, than on defense. I do agree that our improved defense has been important to the season we're having, but I don't think it is really accurate to pretend like we've improved more on defense, or that our defense is better than our offense. According to Ken Pom, we have nearly identical national rankings in both.

 

[IndySooner]

I'd argue that the depth is the biggest difference and the thing that will carry us to the tourney. If someone's off, there's someone to pick him up.

 

[MNsooner]

One thing I don't like about stats like that is that they can't include the ways defense improves offense. In my opinion, a part of good defense is grabbing and clearing rebounds, getting steals and getting fast break points. What I do know is that our shooting percentage hasn't gone up, our turnovers are barely down (-.5), our points from free throws is only up 1%, our offensive rebounds are down, and our offensive efficiency is the same. I just don't see much evidence that the offense is much better and the improvements we have don't seem to be in the half court game. To me all that indicates that our defense is improved and we have the athletes to take advantage of stops to be get transition buckets.

 

[garyeb2]

Statistically, we've actually improved more on offense, than on defense. I do agree that our improved defense has been important to the season we're having, but I don't think it is really accurate to pretend like we've improved more on defense, or that our defense is better than our offense. According to Ken Pom, we have nearly identical national rankings in both.

Well, according to Tubbs, we play good defense. And I checked with Ken Pom and he is reporting that the efficiency rating of your recent post was in the ditch.

 

[AdaSooner]

I agree that we're better on offense and defense. But the #1 key to this team's success is DEPTH. I said it before and I'll say it again, Kruger knew what he was doing by putting our three freshmen's feet to the fire early on.

Last year's team had already started to show signs of fatigue by this point in the season. They would start strong in most games, but didn't have the energy to finish the way this team is doing. That's a product of going nine to ten deep since the season began. Buddy was a big loss. But can you imagine what losing a starter would have been like last year?

 

[DenverSooner]

Statistically, we've actually improved more on offense, than on defense. I do agree that our improved defense has been important to the season we're having, but I don't think it is really accurate to pretend like we've improved more on defense, or that our defense is better than our offense. According to Ken Pom, we have nearly identical national rankings in both.

Good defense leads to good offense. I would argue the better defense is what has created the better offense. Steals and forced shots lead to easier offfensive opportunities and that has a major impact on a teams offensive statistics.

 

[DenverSooner]

the improvements we have don't seem to be in the half court game.

I agree with everything you said except this. I see a lot more movement in OU's offense. The guys don't just stand around and wait for something to happen. They run that weave and move the ball around. To me that is a big improvement over the last three years. With that said, I do attribute most of the improvement to the defense.

 

[WTSooner]

Good defense leads to good offense. I would argue the better defense is what has created the better offense. Steals and forced shots lead to easier offfensive opportunities and that has a major impact on a teams offensive statistics.

If our pace wasn't DOWN from last year, I might agree with you. We are getting less offensive possessions per game than we were last year. So while I agree we've probably had a few more run outs this year, I think it's probably made a pretty small difference, overall.

 

[DenverSooner]

I don't pay a lot of attention to statistics but what is most notable to me is much better defense both individually and as a team.

Perhaps one thing impacting the offense is the bench options. Last year OU had zero options. If the starters weren't playing well and the two backups weren't playing welll that was all OU had. This year Cousins, Grooms, Hornbeak, Hield, Cam Clark, Fitzgerald and even Neal (against TCU) have had pretty effecctive games off the bench. Their season averages may not be huge coming off the bench but they don't have to be when there are lots of options so long as one or two of them make a nice contribution every game. Ultimately one thing is obvious, OU is a much improved basketball team. I just hope they continue to improve and get back to being a consistent top 20 team.

 

[MNsooner]

I agree with everything you said except this. I see a lot more movement in OU's offense. The guys don't just stand around and wait for something to happen. They run that weave and move the ball around. To me that is a big improvement over the last three years. With that said, I do attribute most of the improvement to the defense.

When you're right, you're right. We do have a half court identity this year. We are getting better shots.