The Bubble

[stormspencer]

Since it's the last week of January, I thought I would categorize a group of bubble teams and then give a snapshot of where they are...imo. I will try and update this at least once a week....for anyone who cares. This certainly isn't scientific, so I likely missed a team or two:

Solidly in (9 seed or better):
Stanford - but they did take a bad loss last night
Arkansas - good record but not much meat on their resume
Indiana - see Arkansas (above)
USC - lots of road wins; .5 games out of PAC 12 lead.

On the right side of the bubble (9/10/11 seed) for now:
Ohio State - they had been reeling, but stopped the bleeding temporarily
Florida - good metrics; have talent and a high ceiling
St. Mary's - need to beat Gonzaga once to assure themselves of a spot
Texas Tech - they need another good scalp; plenty of opportunities
OU - they also need another good scalp
Michigan - reeling and on their way out
Syracuse - played their way in the last two weeks

On the edge (may be in or out) - play in game candidates:
Purdue - great metrics and wins; but barely above .500
Minnesota - good wins and SOS, but likely need more
NC State - been losing to bad teams lately
Bama - have played better after a rough start
VCU - need to finish 2nd in A-10 (next to Dayton)
Memphis - reeling pretty bad and not looking good
BYU - can't lose to Bill Russell's alma mater

Out for now:
East Tennessee State
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Tulsa - closing quickly

 

[stormspencer]

Quick bubble up date:

• Syracuse lost at Clemson...it's tough to win on the road, even vs. mediocre teams.
• Va Tech lost to Miami....did I mention it's tough to win on the road
• Purdue lost to a good Rutgers team on the road
• Tennessee (who I previously excluded) lost to A*M at home....yikes.
• Mississippi State got a really good win @Florida
• Virginia got a great win at home against #5 FSU
• Michigan stopped the bleeding temporarily winning @Nebraska
• NC State lost at home last night against a struggling North Carolina team

 

[WichitaSooner]

Thanks for the thread, and for starting it so early. I hope this helps people recognize how many bubble teams there are, and how many of them lose a lot of games...it seems like whenever we go though a rough five or six game stretch, a lot of folks think we are doomed. In reality, most bubble teams experience that ... it's what makes them bubble teams rather than locks.

 

[stormspencer]

Thanks for the thread, and for starting it so early. I hope this helps people recognize how many bubble teams there are, and how many of them lose a lot of games...it seems like whenever we go though a rough five or six game stretch, a lot of folks think we are doomed. In reality, most bubble teams experience that ... it's what makes them bubble teams rather than locks.

You're right Wichita, it brings a little more perspective outside of the "OU ecosystem" that we are all so wrapped up in. Even though I can get somewhat upset after a loss, when I see most of the other moderately good to good teams also going through rough patches, it calms me down. Likewise, even though I celebrate wins, I try to tempter my excitement and not go overboard.

 

[skyvue]

Creighton beat Villanova on the road today, and Miss. State beat Tennessee -- two wins that will help our cause.

 

[cjhsooner]

OU has no big wins, really. They have one ok in beating teams they should beat, but they haven't pulled an upset yet.

 

[CoachTalk]

OU has no big wins, really. They have one ok in beating teams they should beat, but they haven't pulled an upset yet.

Check that SOS. No huge wins but plenty of quality

 

[stormspencer]

Check that SOS. No huge wins but plenty of quality

Exactly. (2) Q-1 wins and (5) Q-2 wins.....and plenty of more upcoming opportunities.

And most importantly, no bad losses (Q-3 or Q-4)

 

[BoulderSooner]

Exactly. (2) Q-1 wins and (5) Q-2 wins.....and plenty of more upcoming opportunities.

And most importantly, no bad losses (Q-3 or Q-4)

Yep

 

[dksooner]

We have an opportunity to be a sneaky madness team when we play well. We have mismatch opportunities with doo and Manek and if reaves doesn't play kobe ball, BOOM!

 

[stormspencer]

Bubble casualties today include:
Bama losing at home (to Arkansas)
Virginia Tech losing at home (to a really good FSU team)
Purdue currently losing to Northwestern....yikes!
Tech lost to Kansas
Indiana lost on the road to Ohio State
Tennessee lost at Mississippi State
Syracuse appears to be going down at home to Duke
NC State got blown out at home

And BYU and Saint Mary's just tipped off....it will be a good game.

I will try to update the first list by Monday.

 

[cjhsooner]

Check that SOS. No huge wins but plenty of quality

I think OU is in, if the tourney were tomorrow. But I still would like to see OU beat somebody they are an underdog to.

 

[stormspencer]

Updated 2/2:

Solidly in (9 seed or better):
Arkansas - good win at Bama
Ohio State - they seemed to have righted the ship
BYU - they jump in here after the win over Saint Mary's
Michigan - really good neutral court win vs. Rutgers yesterday

On the right side of the bubble (9/10/11 seed) for now:
Stanford - were reeling before beating Oregon last night
USC - good record/metrics but hollow resume
Indiana - see USC above; low on quality wins
Saint Mary's - good team; tough loss at BYU last night
Florida - good metrics; but lost at home to Mississippi State
Mississippi State - good win at Florida this week; really ascending
Texas Tech - good win vs. WV; gave KU all they wanted
OU - need at least a split this week
Syracuse - played their way in the last two weeks

On the edge (may be in or out) - play in game candidates:
Purdue - saved their season last night with a crazy comeback
UVA - great win over FSU; but still need more meat
Bama - tough loss to Arkie; but have been playing better since December.
VCU - got pummelled by URI; need more solid wins
Memphis - rebounded to win two in a row
Rhode Island - blew out VCU on Friday


Out for now:
Minnesota
Tennessee
NC State - cratering
Syracuse - lost twice this week
Virginia Tech - see NC State
Tulsa - closing quickly
Georgetown

 

[stormspencer]

Bubble casualties today (2/8):
Virginia lost at Louisville
Florida lost at Ole Miss
Minnesota lost at Penn State
Indiana lost at home to Purdue (Indiana isn't near as safe as I've seen them in several brackets on bracket-matrix)
Va Tech lost again...I think you can just about write them off.
Texas lost at home to Tech (a Texas win would have been good for OU)
Memphis lost at home to sub-.500 USF......yikes!
Stanford lost at Colorado

 

[WichitaSooner]

Bubble casualties today (2/8):
Virginia lost at Louisville
Florida lost at Ole Miss
Minnesota lost at Penn State
Indiana lost at home to Purdue (Indiana isn't near as safe as I've seen them in several brackets on bracket-matrix)
Va Tech lost again...I think you can just about write them off.
Texas lost at home to Tech (a Texas win would have been good for OU)
Memphis lost at home to sub-.500 USF......yikes!
Stanford lost at Colorado

Definitely a good day for the Sooners. The Memphis loss was a brutal one.

 

[stormspencer]

Definitely a good day for the Sooners. The Memphis loss was a brutal one.

There are overreactions at times to wins and losses (I am guilty of it), but this OU team is in a much better position than most think. They are 8-8 in Q-1/Q-2 games and they are 5-7 in road/neutral games. But what separates OU from many of their bubble brethren is that OU doesn't have any warts on their resume. Virtually every bubble team around them has either Q-3 or Q-4 losses (some have multiple losses).

As of this morning, OU was #58 in NET, but they will undoubtedly make a big jump tomorrow. Also, there are several teams currently ahead of OU in the NET rankings that will not even come close to sniffing the tournament (Washington, Richmond, Providence, Utah State) unless they plan on winning their respective conference tournament. And then there are other teams ahead of OU that have a ton of work to do (Georgetown, Providence, Indiana, Alabama) because their record is mediocre or their resume is hollow (or both).

 

[skyvue]

I know they’re not exactly on the bubble, but Arizona just lost to UCLA at home by 13 points. They’re 16-7 to our 15-8, and their SOS is 44 to our 8.

 

[SoonerDutch]

Bubble casualties today (2/8):
Virginia lost at Louisville
Florida lost at Ole Miss
Minnesota lost at Penn State
Indiana lost at home to Purdue (Indiana isn't near as safe as I've seen them in several brackets on bracket-matrix)
Va Tech lost again...I think you can just about write them off.
Texas lost at home to Tech (a Texas win would have been good for OU)
Memphis lost at home to sub-.500 USF......yikes!
Stanford lost at Colorado

Appreciate the thread and I might be missing obvious but how would have UT win vs Tech been good for OU?

Seems like the result makes UT less likely to get back into bubble conversation while Tech is likely on right side of bubble regardless?

 

[sanguinetti]

Tech is hard to put away....

 

[stormspencer]

Appreciate the thread and I might be missing obvious but how would have UT win vs Tech been good for OU?

Seems like the result makes UT less likely to get back into bubble conversation while Tech is likely on right side of bubble regardless?

If Texas remains in the Top 75 of the NET, then OU's win at Texas earlier would remain a Q-1 win. If Texas were to continue to stumble and fall to #76 or worse in the NET rankings, then OU's win in Austin would move from a Q-1 to a Q-2 win. You want all of the Q-1 wins that you can accumulate.