The Bubble

stormspencer said:
If Texas remains in the Top 75 of the NET, then OU's win at Texas earlier would remain a Q-1 win. If Texas were to continue to stumble and fall to #76 or worse in the NET rankings, then OU's win in Austin would move from a Q-1 to a Q-2 win. You want all of the Q-1 wins that you can accumulate.
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The net rankings seem to be pretty set, we moved up one spot after yesterday's results. I could be wrong if you think so please explain. Boomer babay
 
We moved up 10 spots--from 58 to 48--in the NET rankings following yesterday's win. texas dropped four spots, from 62 to 66
 
cjhsooner said:
OU has no big wins, really. They have one ok in beating teams they should beat, but they haven't pulled an upset yet.
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Does beating a #2 seed WVU count? I see you were noticeably absent on the game thread. You weren’t the only one. I’m sure WTSooner was too busy again. Funny how that never seems to be the case when we lose.
 
WVU is definitely a great win. And they will beat Baylor in Norman too. That is wins over projected top 2 seeds
 
thebigabd said:
WVU is definitely a great win. And they will beat Baylor in Norman too. That is wins over projected top 2 seeds
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Of course it is. But a great win doesn’t fit their narrative.

And to think, a few here say you’re a troll! :ez-laugh:
 
We do have a chance to win remaining home games and good road opportunities at TCU and OSU. We are still in total control of getting in and earning a better seed.


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opsooner said:
We do have a chance to win remaining home games and good road opportunities at TCU and OSU. We are still in total control of getting in and earning a better seed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Yea... At this point it's about seeding.
 
Ohio State is getting mauled by Wisconsin (down 18 with just over four minutes remaining). After losing, they will have the same record that we have. How they continue to be ranked so high, I cannot guess.
 
skyvue said:
Ohio State is getting mauled by Wisconsin (down 18 with just over four minutes remaining). After losing, they will have the same record that we have. How they continue to be ranked so high, I cannot guess.
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see now THAT would upset me as a fan. I watched them play and they (Ohio State) have regressed.
 
It might be the wins over Cinncinnati, Villanova and Kentucky. Of course they have lost twice to Minnesota.
 
As mentioned earlier in the thread, this is a fairly fluid snapshot. Updated 2/9:

Solidly in (9 seed or better):
  • Wichita State - they been slipping of late
  • Ohio State - good mid-week win; getting worked today though
  • BYU - they keep winning; WCC looks like a 3-bid league right now
  • Michigan - continuing to win; likely an 8 seed as of now
  • Texas Tech - two good wins this week; improving it seems
  • OU - After the WV win, I think they are a 9-seed.

On the right side of the bubble (9/10/11 seed) for now:
  • Arkansas - they are slipping after loss at Mizzou; need more meat on their resume
  • Stanford - still in good shape after loss at Colorado
  • USC - had a chance for a good road win last night, but blew it.
  • Saint Mary's - got drilled at home by 30 to the Zags; resume is a bit hollow.
  • Mississippi State - still look good even after mid-week loss at UK
  • Rhode Island - continues to win and look pretty good.
  • Purdue - even with their record, they are in the field; playing very well right now.
  • VCU - big week coming up for them.

On the edge (may be in or out) - play in game candidates:
  • Indiana - lost at home to Purdue; their remaining schedule is brutal, they may be on their way out.
  • Florida - losses are piling up; lost at Ole Miss yesterday
  • UVA - still in I think; lost at Louisville yesterday
  • Xavier - I think they've played their way in over the last week and a half
  • Cincinnati - won 4 straight before losing earlier today
  • Northern Iowa - because of others losing, they move in by default
  • East Tenn St - see Northern Iowa above

Out for now:
  • Syracuse - had a midweek loss and avoided a bad loss yesterday
  • Memphis - brutal home loss to USF
  • Georgetown - showing a pulse at least
  • Tennessee - good win at Bama earlier in the week; need more of those
  • NC State - need a defibrillator
  • Texas - just about done, but they do have plenty of Q-1/Q-2 chances
  • Virginia Tech - they are toast; going to move them off for good.
  • Tulsa - on life support
 
Thanks again for these posts!

Florida is a team that shocks me. There were very smart analysts who viewed them as legit national title contenders at the start of the season. I haven’t followed them at all so I don’t know what their issues are, but never would have expected them to be on the bubble.
 
WichitaSooner said:
Thanks again for these posts!

Florida is a team that shocks me. There were very smart analysts who viewed them as legit national title contenders at the start of the season. I haven’t followed them at all so I don’t know what their issues are, but never would have expected them to be on the bubble.
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I'm with you. I've seen Florida play a couple of times. They have the athletes and the skill, but they just aren't getting it done. I looked at their Kenpom layout, and nothing really sticks out that is extremely negative. They don't take a lot of 3s at all...and they shoot so/so from 3, but shoot very well from 2. They do foul quite a bit and put their opponents at the FT line at an alarming rate. And their opponents have shot FTs very well against them....I guess that is the one item that is a clear negative.
 
stormspencer said:
If Texas remains in the Top 75 of the NET, then OU's win at Texas earlier would remain a Q-1 win. If Texas were to continue to stumble and fall to #76 or worse in the NET rankings, then OU's win in Austin would move from a Q-1 to a Q-2 win. You want all of the Q-1 wins that you can accumulate.
Click to expand...

Makes sense, thanks for putting this thread together!
 
I just want a 6 seed or better. If not, then an 11 worse. I hate when we are 7-10 seeds. Very little chance of making the S16.

Edit: Looks like the odds to make the sweet 16 (historically) are close to the same whether you are a 7,10, 11, or 12. So basically just avoid the 8/9 game.

7: 20%
8:10%
9: 5%
10: 17%
11: 16%
12: 15%
 
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Interesting. I knew the 8-9 was the worst but I didnt realize it was that significant.
 
MrAnderson said:
I just want a 6 seed or better. If not, then an 11 worse. I hate when we are 7-10 seeds. Very little chance of making the S16.

Edit: Looks like the odds to make the sweet 16 (historically) are close to the same whether you are a 7,10, 11, or 12. So basically just avoid the 8/9 game.

7: 20%
8:10%
9: 5%
10: 17%
11: 16%
12: 15%
Click to expand...

A 6-seed would be ideal. I think it would likely take getting to at least 10 wins in conference (probably 11) giving us a total of 20/21 regular season wins.....plus at least one win in KC.
 
Quick update....bubble casualties (mid-week):
Syracuse lost to fellow bubble team NC State
Rhode Island lost at Dayton
Purdue loses at home to Penn State
Mississippi State gets blown out at Ole Miss
Arkansas gets blown out at Tennessee; they are really missing Isaiah Joe
Providence loses at St. John's
Bama loses at Auburn
Xavier loses at Butler
VCU loses at home to George Mason....yikes!
 
Bedlam is going to be super important. If we lose that one, we could be 16-13 at month’s end. Our schedule is about to get brutal.
 
Updated as of 2/17

Solidly in (9 seed or better):
  • Ohio State - last week you'll see them on there; they are in.
  • BYU - they are in unless something crazy happens.
  • Michigan - continuing to win; likely an 7/8 seed as of now
  • Texas Tech - tough loss at OSU; still in good shape.
  • OU - need at least another split this week.
  • USC - winning while others are losing; move up by default.

On the right side of the bubble (9/10/11 seed) for now:
  • Wichita State - finally got a breather on the schedule last week; big game @Cincy on Saturday
  • Saint Mary's - one more shot at Gonzaga in a few weeks.
  • Rhode Island - if they have another good week, I'm moving them up
  • Florida - a winning week; big game at UK on Saturday
  • Xavier - bigs win of late; they move up
  • UVA - living on the edge this past week, but still winning.
  • Cincy - won again, but barely. Have Wichita on Saturday.

On the edge (may be in or out) - play in game candidates:
  • Purdue - they are back to sucking on the road; have 12 losses!, but metrics are good
  • Arkansas - they need to Isaiah Joe back; they are cratering
  • Arizona State - have played their way in....for now.
  • Utah State - winning and moving up by default
  • Richmond - have replaced VCU as the likely 3rd team out of the A-10
  • Northern Iowa - lost at Loyola, but likely still above the cut-line I think.
  • East Tenn St - been winning; continue to move up by default
  • Georgetown - great win @ Butler this week

Out for now:
  • VCU - unless they beat Dayton, they are going to have to win A-10 tourney now.
  • Stanford - cratering; lost 7 of 8
  • Indiana - cratering just like last year.
  • Syracuse - lost again this week; they are about history
  • Memphis - they are pretty much done; likely need to win American tourney
  • NC State - good win @Cuse; but gave away equity with loss @BC. Still some chances for them coming up.
 
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