The Sixers tanking experiment

[sperry]

This is going to get ugly for a long, long time. They don't even have any pieces in place. Their two seasons worth of tankign so far have produced no stars. They've got two defensive oriented bigs with bad injury histories. MCW projects to be an average starting point guard.

So basically, they've completely embarrassed the franchise and the league, with almost nothing to show for it.

 

[Smash Williams]

It's way too early to make a judgment on the success or failure on the Sixers' tanking experiment. They've just started Year 2 of a long-term rebuilding project.

MCW isn't a star, but he won ROY last season. You can argue that his winning ROY was simply a function of a high usage rate resulting from playing with a bunch of scrubs, but his efficiency is going to catapult if he's ever surrounded by legitimate NBA players.

Noel is six games into his career. Even if Embiid were playing this season, at this point you couldn't say whether or not he's a star. Same goes for Saric.

In the second year of Sam Presti's rebuilding project (also Durant's second season), OKC started out 3-29. Everyone knew KD would be a star, but you couldn't say the same about Westbrook just two weeks into the 2008-09 season. Ibaka was drafted in 2008 but didn't join OKC until the next season. Harden was drafted a year later. OKC's tanking project worked in large part because they started out with KD, but those other guys--all of whom were of unknown value as NBA players at the beginning of Presti's second season--were a huge part of OKC becoming a contender instead of a lower-seeded playoff team.

I do think there is a legitimate concern about whether taking it to this extreme--the Sixers roster consists of rookie-scale players and a bunch of D-League quality players--will poison the culture of the organization and its young players. OKC at least surrounded its young players with legitimate NBA vets. The Cavs weren't trying to tank, but you can see the bad habits and mindsets that were developed by the younger players in that losing culture.

The Sixers are obviously tanking this season, but after the 2015 draft, they'll have accumulated five lottery picks (Noel, MCW, Embiid, Saric, 2015 pick) in three years. At that point, it's definitely time to start trying to win and seeing if those guys can produce when surrounded by real NBA players. Next summer they need to acquire enough NBA-level players to field a semi-competitive team.

Hinkie's tanking project may very well fail miserably. There's no surefire approach to building a contender in the NBA. Philly has a lot of promising pieces, though.

 

[sperry]

It's way too early to make a judgment on the success or failure on the Sixers' tanking experiment. They've just started Year 2 of a long-term rebuilding project.

MCW isn't a star, but he won ROY last season. You can argue that his winning ROY was simply a function of a high usage rate resulting from playing with a bunch of scrubs, but his efficiency is going to catapult if he's ever surrounded by legitimate NBA players.

Noel is six games into his career. Even if Embiid were playing this season, at this point you couldn't say whether or not he's a star. Same goes for Saric.

In the second year of Sam Presti's rebuilding project (also Durant's second season), OKC started out 3-29. Everyone knew KD would be a star, but you couldn't say the same about Westbrook just two weeks into the 2008-09 season. Ibaka was drafted in 2008 but didn't join OKC until the next season. Harden was drafted a year later. OKC's tanking project worked in large part because they started out with KD, but those other guys--all of whom were of unknown value as NBA players at the beginning of Presti's second season--were a huge part of OKC becoming a contender instead of a lower-seeded playoff team.

I do think there is a legitimate concern about whether taking it to this extreme--the Sixers roster consists of rookie-scale players and a bunch of D-League quality players--will poison the culture of the organization and its young players. OKC at least surrounded its young players with legitimate NBA vets. The Cavs weren't trying to tank, but you can see the bad habits and mindsets that were developed by the younger players in that losing culture.

The Sixers are obviously tanking this season, but after the 2015 draft, they'll have accumulated five lottery picks (Noel, MCW, Embiid, Saric, 2015 pick) in three years. At that point, it's definitely time to start trying to win and seeing if those guys can produce when surrounded by real NBA players. Next summer they need to acquire enough NBA-level players to field a semi-competitive team.

Hinkie's tanking project may very well fail miserably. There's no surefire approach to building a contender in the NBA. Philly has a lot of promising pieces, though.

I'm saying that those guys aren't stars. You could tell Durant was going to be a superstar early on in his rookie season. So you already had that foundational piece to build on top of. And the


With the Sixers, you just have a bunch of incredibly risky prospects. And Noel and MCW you can tell aren't going to be stars. Now they may be solid to good starters, but they aren't stars. Embiid is a HUGE injury risk, and is raw as is. Saric is basically a complete unknown. That's a really, really shaky foundation to build on.


And the Thunder had some other pieces there as well.

 

[thebigabd]

Michael Carter-Williams and Nerlens Noel will be pretty good pieces to start with. We will see on Joel Embiid but he seems like a guy who wont be able to stay healthy.We saw enough from MCW last year to know what he is all a bout.

Let's say they got the #1 pick... who would they get?

 

[sperry]

Michael Carter-Williams and Nerlens Noel will be pretty good pieces to start with. We will see on Joel Embiid but he seems like a guy who wont be able to stay healthy.We saw enough from MCW last year to know what he is all a bout.

Let's say they got the #1 pick... who would they get?

That's the other thing. The only two candidates for the #1 overall pick are at the positions that Noel/Embiid and MCW play.


I'd guess they take Mudiay if they get it, but there are no elite wings in this draft class, and that's what they need. If you take Okafor, then you have to give up on Embiid or Noel, and I doubt you'd get a whole lot in trade for either right now.

 

[Smash Williams]

That's the other thing. The only two candidates for the #1 overall pick are at the positions that Noel/Embiid and MCW play.


I'd guess they take Mudiay if they get it, but there are no elite wings in this draft class, and that's what they need. If you take Okafor, then you have to give up on Embiid or Noel, and I doubt you'd get a whole lot in trade for either right now.

If you're 100% certain that Noel, Embiid, and MCW will never be stars, then why do you care that they play the same position as potential #1 overall picks?

It's not as if there isn't enough playing time to go around for multiple young bigs. Besides Noel and Embiid, how many bigs on that team can you name? Off the top of my head, the only one I could name is Henry Sims, and that's only because I saw one of his tweets complaining about Comcast a couple of days ago. Even if you were to throw Okafor into the mix, there are more than enough frontcourt minutes available for developing and evaluating those players.

The Sixers don't necessarily need an elite wing; they need elite players, regardless of position. That's why they're taking as many cracks as possible at the lottery.

The Sixers are barely a year into a tanking experiment that everyone knew was going to take several seasons. Maybe the Sixers don't get a single star out of it. Perhaps they just get a few really good young players, but they can go in multiple directions from there--building around those players, or flipping them for a better player.

Again, this may completely blow up in the Sixers' faces, but taking that risk is better than standing pat with the team they had when Hinkie took over: a 34-48 team with an incredibly low ceiling.

 

[sperry]

If you're 100% certain that Noel, Embiid, and MCW will never be stars, then why do you care that they play the same position as potential #1 overall picks?

It's not as if there isn't enough playing time to go around for multiple young bigs. Besides Noel and Embiid, how many bigs on that team can you name? Off the top of my head, the only one I could name is Henry Sims, and that's only because I saw one of his tweets complaining about Comcast a couple of days ago. Even if you were to throw Okafor into the mix, there are more than enough frontcourt minutes available for developing and evaluating those players.

The Sixers don't necessarily need an elite wing; they need elite players, regardless of position. That's why they're taking as many cracks as possible at the lottery.

The Sixers are barely a year into a tanking experiment that everyone knew was going to take several seasons. Maybe the Sixers don't get a single star out of it. Perhaps they just get a few really good young players, but they can go in multiple directions from there--building around those players, or flipping them for a better player.

Again, this may completely blow up in the Sixers' faces, but taking that risk is better than standing pat with the team they had when Hinkie took over: a 34-48 team with an incredibly low ceiling.

They've made 4 lottery selections with not much to show for it. The best player in the draft plays the same position as two of those 4 lottery picsks they've made.


And I recognize it's within the rules to tank, it just shouldn't be. If I was a season ticket holder for any NBA franchise, I'd be writing Adam Silver angry letters asking for my money back when the Sixers came to town. If the commissioners office got bombarded with letters and the national media picked up on it, the tanking stuff and blatantly trying to be awful would go away in a hurry.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

LOL so now Papajohns is giving away 50% off pizzas if the Sixers scored over 90...even if they lose...

 

[bocabull]

I don't consider what Hinkie is doing tanking. He took over a steaming pile of mediocrity with limited future draft picks due to the disastrous Moultrie & Bynum trades. His only decent asset was Jrue Holiday which he turned into Noel & a pick that ended up being 10th. He drafted Embiid and turned that 10th pick into Saric & another first round pick by trading down 2 spots.

He has only a $38 million payroll which will allow him to trade for more assets later this season.

He's not tanking. He's trying to turn lemons into lemonade and not wasting any time getting it done. He just took the job in 2013 and by summer 2015 might have MCW, Noel, Embiid, Saric, Okafor & more than a full compliment of future draft picks. That's pretty incredible.

 

[Smash Williams]

I don't consider what Hinkie is doing tanking. He took over a steaming pile of mediocrity with limited future draft picks due to the disastrous Moultrie & Bynum trades. His only decent asset was Jrue Holiday which he turned into Noel & a pick that ended up being 10th. He drafted Embiid and turned that 10th pick into Saric & another first round pick by trading down 2 spots.

He has only a $38 million payroll which will allow him to trade for more assets later this season.

He's not tanking. He's trying to turn lemons into lemonade and not wasting any time getting it done. He just took the job in 2013 and by summer 2015 might have MCW, Noel, Embiid, Saric, Okafor & more than a full compliment of future draft picks. That's pretty incredible.

I agree with all of that, except I'd still call it tanking.

I don't take issue with it, though. The NBA's current system incentivizes it. The Sixers are guaranteeing themselves a Top 4 pick.

 

[sperry]

I don't consider what Hinkie is doing tanking. He took over a steaming pile of mediocrity with limited future draft picks due to the disastrous Moultrie & Bynum trades. His only decent asset was Jrue Holiday which he turned into Noel & a pick that ended up being 10th. He drafted Embiid and turned that 10th pick into Saric & another first round pick by trading down 2 spots.

He has only a $38 million payroll which will allow him to trade for more assets later this season.

He's not tanking. He's trying to turn lemons into lemonade and not wasting any time getting it done. He just took the job in 2013 and by summer 2015 might have MCW, Noel, Embiid, Saric, Okafor & more than a full compliment of future draft picks. That's pretty incredible.

Aside from Okafor, that's not really much to get excited about.


And proper talent evaluation is much, much more important than draft position unless you get the #1 overall pick in a year with a slam dunk #1 overall pick like (2012 or 2009). Since 2006, only in 2007 and 2009 have two of the three best players in the draft gone in the top three of the draft.