Tourney Seeding Now Determined

[Sweetest OU Girl]

There are now 2 games left. They are listed below with my predictions.

Some information about the format:

1. Home team is listed 2nd in each case.
2. The team in bold is my predicted winner.
3. The numbers in brackets represent what that team's record will be if the result is as predicted.

Game [Record at that Point]

West Virginia [7 - 11]
Kansas State W [7 - 11]

TCU [9 - 9]
Texas W [9 - 9]

Now clearly one or more may not turn out as predicted, but it turns out the results will have no impact on Big-12 Tournament Seeds, assuming I have correctly interpreted the tie breakers as they work with group ties (we could end up with a 4 way tie for 3rd place).

Below is what they would be if all games turned out as predicted above. I think I have handled the tie breakers correctly. The basic rules are:

1. Look at head to head results. If the tie is a group consider record against the teams in the group.
2. If nothing is determined by 1, start through the teams in ranked order and see who has the best record against the team ranked 1, then 2, then 3, etc

Predicted Final Standings
Team ...........Record ..Seed .....Tie Breaking Logic
Baylor ............16 – 2 .....1..........Seed is Final
OU .................13 – 5 .....2..........Seed is Final
TCU..................9 – 9 ......3......(Split with Texas, Swept OSU, Split with ISU) Group = 4-2 ............Seed is Final
OSU..................9 – 9.......4......(Lost twice to TCU, Split with Texas, Swept ISU) Group = 3-3 ......Seed is Final
Iowa State........9 – 9.......5......(Split with TCU, Lost twice to OSU, Swept Texas) Group = 3-3 .........Seed is Final
Texas................9 – 9.......6......(Split with OSU, Split with TCU, Lost twice to ISU) Group = 2-4 .........Seed is Final
West Virginia ..7 – 11 ....7 .....(Split with KSU, Split with OU)......Seed is Final
Kanas State .....7 – 11 ....8 .....(Split with WV, Lost twice to OU)....Seed is Final
Kansas .............5 – 13 ....9..... (Beat Tech twice))..........Seed is Final
Texas Tech ......5 – 13 ....10 ....(Lost to Kansas twice).....Seed is Final

Baylor plays the 8 vs. 9 winner.
We play the 7 vs. 10 winner

Resulting Tournament Pairings

Friday Games
6:00 PM KSU (8) vs. Kansas (9)
8:30 PM WV (7) vs. Tech (10)

Saturday Games
11:00 AM OSU (4) vs. ISU (5)
1:30 PM Baylor (1) vs. [KSU (8) – Kansas (9) winner]
6:00 PM OU (2) vs. [WV (7) – Tech (10) winner]
8:30: PM TCU (3) vs. Texas (6)

 

[tycat947]

Wow on TCU being 3rd seed. Never would have guessed!

 

[O-State2009]

Given your predictions, you have correctly determined the seedings as I understand them also.

However, if results happen exactly opposite of your prediction I believe WVU is the 6 and UT winds up the 7.

 

[Oliver Hardy]

All I know is I don't want to play WV in the first round -- especially not the way we've played 3 out of the last 4.

WV always gives us fits. We have trouble dealing with their press and quick hands.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

Given your predictions, you have correctly determined the seedings as I understand them also.

However, if results happen exactly opposite of your prediction I believe WVU is the 6 and UT winds up the 7.

OK here is how I think that plays out.

If it is exactly the opposite of my prediction, then they tie at 8 - 10.

Tie Breaker:

WV split with Texas Still Tied
Both lost to Baylor....Still Tied
Both split with OU....Still Tied
Gets down to TCU's results against them:
TCU swept Texas and Split with WV.

So you are correct. Texas would be the 7th seed, WV the 6th seed.

And in that case we would play the winner of Texas vs. Texas Tech in our first game (6:00 PM Saturday).

I would not bet against some other error in the tie breaker results I calculated. I did that pretty quick.

If anyone finds additional info, let us know. But we will know for sure by tonight.

 

[YCN]

The analysis is a bit faulty, I'm afraid, BUT in the end it makes no difference.

Here is why:
1. Baylor
2. Oklahoma

Currently in 3rd through 6th are
3. TCU 9-8
4. OSU 9-9
4. ISU 9-9
6. UT 8-9

According the Big 12 Tiebreaker Rules, when more than two teams tie with the same conference record, if a team has a better record against the other teams with whom they are tied, that team (or teams) push everyone else behind in seeding for the conference tournament.

So here are the options as of now:

1. UT beats TCU in Austin. That results in four teams tied for third at 9-9: TCU, OSU, ISU, and UT. Here's how that works out:

ISU 1-1 against TCU, 0-2 against OSU, 1-1 against UT, 2-4 combined.
OSU 0-2 against TCU, 2-0 against ISU, 1-1 against UT, 3-3 combined.
UT 1-1 against TCU, 1-1 against OSU, 1-1 against ISU, 3-3 combined.
TCU 2-0 against OSU, 1-1 against ISU, 1-1 against UT, 4-2 combined.

TCU is the 3-seed by virtue of a better record round-robin against the other three teams. Since they already are in 3rd and the only way for them to finish tied for 3rd is the above scenario, their seeding is already determined. The other teams are THEN evaluated against each other.

3. TCU

ISU 0-2 against OSU, 1-1 against UT, 1-3 combined.
OSU 2-0 against ISU, 1-1 against UT, 3-1 combined.
UT 1-1 against OSU, 1-1 against ISU, 2-2 combined.

OSU becomes the 4-seed.

4. OSU

And ISU split with UT, but because ISU beat Baylor, ISU becomes the 5-seed.

UT becomes the 6-seed.

5. ISU
6. UT

---

2. TCU beats UT in Austin.

Same as above, Except TCU finishes 10-8, OSU and ISU finish 9-9 with OSU being the 4-seed by virtue of a season sweep of the Cyclones, and Texas is 8-10 and the 6-seed.

West Virginia can also tie for 6th with Texas if they beat KSU in Manhattan. Since that would result in a home-and-home split between WVU and UT, then they look at who they beat in the conference. Both lost twice to Baylor and split with OU, but UT split with TCU while West Virginia was swept by the Frogs.

Thus West Virginia is frozen as the 7-seed. They could finish tied with KSU if they lose in Manhattan, but in that case the two teams split against each other, and WVU beat OU in Morgantown, while KSU didn't win against either of the top 2.

KSU if frozen as the 8-seed, KU as the 9-seed, and Tech as the 10-seed.

Really there's no way for any seeds to change tonight. All 10 seeds are already determined. OSU finishes 4th ahead of ISU because of a season sweep.

1. BU
2. OU
3. TCU
4. OSU
5. ISU
6. UT
7. WVU
8. KSU
9. KU
10. TTU



THE END.

 

[O-State2009]

The analysis is a bit faulty, I'm afraid, BUT in the end it makes no difference.

Here is why:
1. Baylor
2. Oklahoma

Currently in 3rd through 6th are
3. TCU 9-8
4. OSU 9-9
4. ISU 9-9
6. UT 8-9

According the Big 12 Tiebreaker Rules, when more than two teams tie with the same conference record, if a team has a better record against the other teams with whom they are tied, that team (or teams) push everyone else behind in seeding for the conference tournament.

So here are the options as of now:

1. UT beats TCU in Austin. That results in four teams tied for third at 9-9: TCU, OSU, ISU, and UT. Here's how that works out:

ISU 1-1 against TCU, 0-2 against OSU, 1-1 against UT, 2-4 combined.
OSU 0-2 against TCU, 2-0 against ISU, 1-1 against UT, 3-3 combined.
UT 1-1 against TCU, 1-1 against OSU, 1-1 against ISU, 3-3 combined.
TCU 2-0 against OSU, 1-1 against ISU, 1-1 against UT, 4-2 combined.

TCU is the 3-seed by virtue of a better record round-robin against the other three teams. Since they already are in 3rd and the only way for them to finish tied for 3rd is the above scenario, their seeding is already determined. The other teams are THEN evaluated against each other.

3. TCU

ISU 0-2 against OSU, 1-1 against UT, 1-3 combined.
OSU 2-0 against ISU, 1-1 against UT, 3-1 combined.
UT 1-1 against OSU, 1-1 against ISU, 2-2 combined.

OSU becomes the 4-seed.

4. OSU

And ISU split with UT, but because ISU beat Baylor, ISU becomes the 5-seed.

UT becomes the 6-seed.

5. ISU
6. UT

---

2. TCU beats UT in Austin.

Same as above, Except TCU finishes 10-8, OSU and ISU finish 9-9 with OSU being the 4-seed by virtue of a season sweep of the Cyclones, and Texas is 8-10 and the 6-seed.

West Virginia can also tie for 6th with Texas if they beat KSU in Manhattan. Since that would result in a home-and-home split between WVU and UT, then they look at who they beat in the conference. Both lost twice to Baylor and split with OU, but UT split with TCU while West Virginia was swept by the Frogs.

Thus West Virginia is frozen as the 7-seed. They could finish tied with KSU if they lose in Manhattan, but in that case the two teams split against each other, and WVU beat OU in Morgantown, while KSU didn't win against either of the top 2.

KSU if frozen as the 8-seed, KU as the 9-seed, and Tech as the 10-seed.

Really there's no way for any seeds to change tonight. All 10 seeds are already determined. OSU finishes 4th ahead of ISU because of a season sweep.

1. BU
2. OU
3. TCU
4. OSU
5. ISU
6. UT
7. WVU
8. KSU
9. KU
10. TTU



THE END.

Except TCU and WVU have split the season series.. With a UT loss, they would be the team swept by the frogs... So, 6 and 7 are still up for grabs. UT gets the 6 with a win OR WVU loss.

 

[giraffespots]

This is what the bracket generator produced (from Hoopscoop):

KSU / TEXAS WIN:
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (9 - 9) Defeated Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas based on round-robin record.
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) With Iowa State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) With Oklahoma State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. Texas (9 - 9) Lost to TCU, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State based on round-robin record.
7. West Virginia (7 - 11) Defeated Kansas State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Kansas State (7 - 11) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #2 teams.
9. Kansas (6 - 12)
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

WV / TEXAS WIN:
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (9 - 9) Defeated Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas based on round-robin record.
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) With Iowa State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) With Oklahoma State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. Texas (9 - 9) Lost to TCU, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State based on round-robin record.
7. West Virginia (8 - 10)
8. Kansas State (6 - 12) Defeated Kansas based on head-to-head record.
9. Kansas (6 - 12) Lost to Kansas State based on head-to-head record.
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

KSU / TCU WIN
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (10 - 8)
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. Texas (8 - 10)
7. West Virginia (7 - 11) Defeated Kansas State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Kansas State (7 - 11) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #2 teams.
9. Kansas (6 - 12)
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

WV / TCU WIN
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (10 - 8)
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. West Virginia (8 - 10) Defeated Texas based on record against #3 teams.
7. Texas (8 - 10) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #3 teams.
8. Kansas State (6 - 12) Defeated Kansas based on head-to-head record.
9. Kansas (6 - 12) Lost to Kansas State based on head-to-head record.
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

IF...WV and TCU win, WV is 6 seed, TX is 7 seed. All other combinations, TX is 6 seed and WV is 7 seed.

 

[sybarite]

This is what the bracket generator produced (from Hoopscoop):

KSU / TEXAS WIN:
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (9 - 9) Defeated Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas based on round-robin record.
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) With Iowa State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) With Oklahoma State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. Texas (9 - 9) Lost to TCU, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State based on round-robin record.
7. West Virginia (7 - 11) Defeated Kansas State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Kansas State (7 - 11) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #2 teams.
9. Kansas (6 - 12)
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

WV / TEXAS WIN:
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (9 - 9) Defeated Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Texas based on round-robin record.
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) With Iowa State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) With Oklahoma State, defeated Texas and lost to TCU based on round-robin record. Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. Texas (9 - 9) Lost to TCU, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State based on round-robin record.
7. West Virginia (8 - 10)
8. Kansas State (6 - 12) Defeated Kansas based on head-to-head record.
9. Kansas (6 - 12) Lost to Kansas State based on head-to-head record.
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

KSU / TCU WIN
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (10 - 8)
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. Texas (8 - 10)
7. West Virginia (7 - 11) Defeated Kansas State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Kansas State (7 - 11) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #2 teams.
9. Kansas (6 - 12)
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

WV / TCU WIN
1. Baylor (16 - 2)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. TCU (10 - 8)
4. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Defeated Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Iowa State (9 - 9) Lost to Oklahoma State based on head-to-head record.
6. West Virginia (8 - 10) Defeated Texas based on record against #3 teams.
7. Texas (8 - 10) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #3 teams.
8. Kansas State (6 - 12) Defeated Kansas based on head-to-head record.
9. Kansas (6 - 12) Lost to Kansas State based on head-to-head record.
10. Texas Tech (5 - 13)

IF...WV and TCU win, WV is 6 seed, TX is 7 seed. All other combinations, TX is 6 seed and WV is 7 seed.

This is what the bracket generator said to me as well.

 

[mgood1]

This is what the bracket generator said to me as well.

Yep.

 

[YCN]

Except TCU and WVU have split the season series.. With a UT loss, they would be the team swept by the frogs... So, 6 and 7 are still up for grabs. UT gets the 6 with a win OR WVU loss.

You're quite right. I misread my own grid of Big 12 games and thought there would be a season split. Without the split, WVU wins the tiebreak.

I worked on those scenarios for hours, it's a bit embarrassing to get it wrong.

 

[sybarite]

You're quite right. I misread my own grid of Big 12 games and thought there would be a season split. Without the split, WVU wins the tiebreak.

I worked on those scenarios for hours, it's a bit embarrassing to get it wrong.

I'm too lazy. I just use the bracketgenerator on HoopScoop.

 

[YCN]

I'm too lazy. I just use the bracketgenerator on HoopScoop.

I do it for the mental exercise. Don't know if it's working or not... :facepalm

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

Well I admit I just spent a few minutes figuring it out, but I think the confusion some had was with how to interpret the rules. That is, when to break a tie between several teams instead of just a tie between 2.

Here is the rule for that part:

Ties Involving More than Two Teams.
1. Results of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams (mini round-robin).
2. If more than two teams are still tied, each of the tied team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings, and then continuing down through the standings, eliminating tied teams with inferior records until one team gains an advantage.

When arriving at another group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to that group's own tie-breaking procedure), rather than the performance against individual tied teams.

So I don't think you eliminate one of the 4 and then go back to tie break between the other three. You just start through that part that looks at results against the top teams in order.

Doesn't matter since we will know for sure by around 10 PM.

I think we likely play winner of WV - Texas Tech, but there is a slim possibility we play winner of Texas-Texas Tech.

Which would you prefer?

 

[YCN]

Once one team has advanced to a seeding out of a group of more than two teams, you go back to the start and work through it again.

For example, you might advance one team that is 4-2 against three others, but then the other tied teams are evaluated only against each other. If that doesn't reduce the number by comparing records against the other two teams, then you start looking at their individual records against the top seed, then the next seed that isn't in contention, and so forth until you either advance another team or go to the next step in the tiebreaker.

 

[O-State2009]

You're quite right. I misread my own grid of Big 12 games and thought there would be a season split. Without the split, WVU wins the tiebreak.

I worked on those scenarios for hours, it's a bit embarrassing to get it wrong.

No worries. Shortly after bedlam, I still thought spots 3-7 were up for grabs when, in reality, only 6 and 7 were.

Likely to make an error somewhere when the league is such a mess like it is this year. Could end up being only 4 games separated 3rd from last. That is a pretty tightly contested league top to bottom.

Unfortunately I agree with most people in that the league is down overall, but not much from recent years. The top has slid backwards a bit, but the bottom has improved.

 

[soonerstar]

No worries. Shortly after bedlam, I still thought spots 3-7 were up for grabs when, in reality, only 6 and 7 were.

Likely to make an error somewhere when the league is such a mess like it is this year. Could end up being only 4 games separated 3rd from last. That is a pretty tightly contested league top to bottom.

Unfortunately I agree with most people in that the league is down overall, but not much from recent years. The top has slid backwards a bit, but the bottom has improved.

You are correct. There is no dominant team now like there was when OU had CP3 and Baylor had Griner and Sims.

 

[YCN]

No worries. Shortly after bedlam, I still thought spots 3-7 were up for grabs when, in reality, only 6 and 7 were.

Likely to make an error somewhere when the league is such a mess like it is this year. Could end up being only 4 games separated 3rd from last. That is a pretty tightly contested league top to bottom.

Unfortunately I agree with most people in that the league is down overall, but not much from recent years. The top has slid backwards a bit, but the bottom has improved.

And the conference is still #1 in the NCAA's RPI calculations. That's more important than a lot of people think, and I expect several conference teams will get better seeds in the tourney than most people would believe.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

Once one team has advanced to a seeding out of a group of more than two teams, you go back to the start and work through it again.

For example, you might advance one team that is 4-2 against three others, but then the other tied teams are evaluated only against each other. If that doesn't reduce the number by comparing records against the other two teams, then you start looking at their individual records against the top seed, then the next seed that isn't in contention, and so forth until you either advance another team or go to the next step in the tiebreaker.

That bolded part is not clear. The 1st pass actually breaks the 4 teams into 3 groups.

1. A 4-2
2. Two 3-3 teams.
3. A 2-4 team.

The only tie left to break is between the two 3-3 teams. It appears to me it makes it clear that the first way to separate the teams is to use the "group" records. The two 3-3 teams have already surpassed the 2-4 by that criteria. However, there is a sentence in a different part of the rules that could suggest otherwise, but it's context is not the same as this one.

The rules could easily be re-written to make the intended method very clear. You have to wonder why it was not. Perhaps precedent has been established and in the case of teams litigating it, that could be argued. I doubt anyone would be that concerned though since it is breaking a many way tie and the teams would clearly be closely competitive.

 

[Sweetest OU Girl]

And the conference is still #1 in the NCAA's RPI calculations. That's more important than a lot of people think, and I expect several conference teams will get better seeds in the tourney than most people would believe.

I expect you are exactly right. And I expect the Big-12 will have 2 or 3 teams make the sweet 16. We will see.