The elite guards always find ways to score, in every level, no matter who is guarding them. Jodie Meeks averaged 23 in the SEC, Marcus Thornton averaged 21 in the SEC, James Harden put up 20 in the Pac-10, Jerrell McNeal averaged 19.1 in the Big East, andToney Douglas averaged 21 in the ACC. Even your own James Anderson averaged 19.1 in Big 12 play, and he has nowhere the ability to create his own shot like Willie does. Those guys were most certainly the focal point of the opposing defenses, and were most certainly being guarded by some pretty good athletes in those conferences. And Willie is every bit the scorer they were.
If you can score, and you are the focal point of the offense and get shots, you're going to score. Willie was the second option of the offense last year, was extremely passive and still managed almost 15 a game as a freshman.
This year (1) He's going to be a better player (2) The offense is going to be tailored around him (3) He's going to take more shots. He's also going to have a better playmaker next to him in TMG who will be extremely good at penetrating and setting him up. I think he will get at least 20, and if I had to guess will be in the 22-23 range.
We even got a preview of this year last year. I would say two of the tougher defensive teams we played were at Texas and Kansas. And when we played them without Blake, Willie averaged 25 points in those two games (27 against Texas and 23 against Kansas) despite the fact the other team knew he was the No. 1 option, and know that without Blake we had no low-post scoring threat. And if you take it a step further, Willie we will have a better inside game next year with Tiny than we had in those two games without Blake when he averaged 25.
I also think people are overrating our supporting cast in terms their ability to score. Willie is heads and shoulders our best scorer, and we're going to need him to take a ton of shots (probably 20 a game and at least six free throws a game). So I'll be surprised if he doesn't get the 20+.