Wins to make the Dance

[BoulderSooner]

OU is currently 8-2 the next 2 teams we play are very very bad ..

OU will be 10-2 heading into the new year ....

18 conf games and the Auburn game remaining.

IMHO OU will need 9 more wins to make the dance

19-12 gets OU in .. and that is very very achievable ..

 

[WTSooner]

If we go 9-9 or better in conference play, I imagine we're safe. 8-10? Maybe, but we'd be at the mercy of what other teams around the country have done at that point.

 

[WichitaSooner]

8-10 conference record has been good enough in the recent past, and I think this might be the best year for the Big 12 yet. Now, if we go 8-10 and lose to auburn and lose our first game in KC, that would be dicey.

We won’t have quite as strong a noncon resume as we have had in some of the recent seasons. It would help if Florida could right there ship, but they will need to be top 30 in the NET for that to be a quad 1 win since it was at home. That will be a stretch. Arky just needs to be top 50 since it was neutral site. UCF would be quad 1 if they stay in the top 75, but they will need to pick up a good win or two in their league to make that happen.

 

[Stikboy]

Of course everyone cares about the dance, but i'd like to finish above .500 in conference and beat some of our rivals. Beat up on some conference foes. Been awhile since we've done that with any consistency.

 

[TheMont]

Here's how the conference currently breaks down to me:

Elite, could win a national championship tier:
Baylor (NET #2)
Kansas (NET #5)

Very good, currently ranked tier:
Texas (NET #23)
Iowa State (NET #17)
Texas Tech (NET #20)

Should make the tournament, currently receiving AP votes tier:
Oklahoma (NET #39)
West Virginia (NET #56)

Lowest tier:
TCU (NET #62)
Kansas State (NET #91)
Oklahoma State (NET #67)

This team needs to go 6-0 against the lowest tier of the conference. That was always Lon's downfall IMO -- he would lose 2-3 games to teams he had NO business losing to. We need to take care of business against teams less talented than us.

There's nothing shameful about getting swept by both Kansas and Baylor. They are phenomenal teams this year. Though if we steal a win, that would obviously be beneficial.

A good goal for this team is to go .500 against the Very Good, Currently Ranked tier + West Virginia. We'll obviously have to play excellent basketball to make this happen, but it's attainable.

If we go undefeated against the lowest tier, get swept by BU and KU, and go .500 against everyone else, we'll finish 10-8 and be sitting pretty on Selection Sunday. Realistically, I don't think it will happen this cleanly, considering I definitely didn't expect this team to beat UCF, Florida, and Arkansas but lose to Butler, but it's possible!

 

[Eielson]

I'd rather not go 8-10 again.

 

[Zimwillett]

Hard to say for sure, but given how difficult this conference is, and the handful of good wins OU has collected in the nonconference, I'd say they have a bigger margin for error than most think.

A lot of it just depends on whether OU gets some big upsets, but I could easily see a scenario where they finish with 7 regular season wins and get in. The Big 12 is just that good.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Here's how the conference currently breaks down to me:

Elite, could win a national championship tier:
Baylor (NET #2)
Kansas (NET #5)

Very good, currently ranked tier:
Texas (NET #23)
Iowa State (NET #17)
Texas Tech (NET #20)

Should make the tournament, currently receiving AP votes tier:
Oklahoma (NET #39)
West Virginia (NET #56)

Lowest tier:
TCU (NET #62)
Kansas State (NET #91)
Oklahoma State (NET #67)

This team needs to go 6-0 against the lowest tier of the conference. That was always Lon's downfall IMO -- he would lose 2-3 games to teams he had NO business losing to. We need to take care of business against teams less talented than us.

There's nothing shameful about getting swept by both Kansas and Baylor. They are phenomenal teams this year. Though if we steal a win, that would obviously be beneficial.

A good goal for this team is to go .500 against the Very Good, Currently Ranked tier + West Virginia. We'll obviously have to play excellent basketball to make this happen, but it's attainable.

If we go undefeated against the lowest tier, get swept by BU and KU, and go .500 against everyone else, we'll finish 10-8 and be sitting pretty on Selection Sunday. Realistically, I don't think it will happen this cleanly, considering I definitely didn't expect this team to beat UCF, Florida, and Arkansas but lose to Butler, but it's possible!

I’d love to be wrong but don’t see us going 6-0 against those three teams at the bottom. As bad as they are perceived to be by some on the board, they are all in the top 100 and two are in the top 70. For perspective, they are all probably comparable to UCF. I have a hard time thinking we would sweep six against that kind of team, especially with three on the road. They are all better than Butler, and we saw how that went.

We really need to just survive the first 7-8 games, because the schedule is especially tough the first month. If we can do that, we will have a chance to finish well.

 

[NickZepp]

I think 7 or 8 with maybe one conference tournament win gets in too but it depends on the wins.

 

[opsooner]

My hope is at least 5-5 in January, which will not be easy.


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[Soonerinkc]

Here's how the conference currently breaks down to me:

Elite, could win a national championship tier:
Baylor (NET #2)
Kansas (NET #5)

Very good, currently ranked tier:
Texas (NET #23)
Iowa State (NET #17)
Texas Tech (NET #20)

Should make the tournament, currently receiving AP votes tier:
Oklahoma (NET #39)
West Virginia (NET #56)

Lowest tier:
TCU (NET #62)
Kansas State (NET #91)
Oklahoma State (NET #67)

This team needs to go 6-0 against the lowest tier of the conference. That was always Lon's downfall IMO -- he would lose 2-3 games to teams he had NO business losing to. We need to take care of business against teams less talented than us.

There's nothing shameful about getting swept by both Kansas and Baylor. They are phenomenal teams this year. Though if we steal a win, that would obviously be beneficial.

A good goal for this team is to go .500 against the Very Good, Currently Ranked tier + West Virginia. We'll obviously have to play excellent basketball to make this happen, but it's attainable.

If we go undefeated against the lowest tier, get swept by BU and KU, and go .500 against everyone else, we'll finish 10-8 and be sitting pretty on Selection Sunday. Realistically, I don't think it will happen this cleanly, considering I definitely didn't expect this team to beat UCF, Florida, and Arkansas but lose to Butler, but it's possible!

good thoughts...but lol, I bet IF we can pull off an upset win, at least one (ku/bu) out of the four...we drop a game or 2 from the bottom 6. Crazy how that crap works for OU.

My guess is 9-9 or 8-10 in conf. Hopefully beat auburn so that puts us at 19 or 20 wins.

It'd be nice to play like we did against uf and the piggies...most of the season.

 

[TINY]

Hoping for 10-8. This team can definitely beat any team in this conference.

 

[pnkranger]

Hoping for 10-8. This team can definitely beat any team in this conference.

I think we are more equipped to compete with the type of pressure we'll see from the top teams than we were last year. Better team rebounding, better perimeter defense (similar interior defense). More efficient offensively and plenty of offensive options. We can take what the defense gives us...

Need to work on these things:

Ball-handling in tight, grinder games
Late game decision making
Bench scoring
Play against zone

I'll say 10-8 with lots of close games.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I think we are more equipped to compete with the type of pressure we'll see from the top teams than we were last year. Better team rebounding, better perimeter defense (similar interior defense). More efficient offensively and plenty of offensive options. We can take what the defense gives us...

Need to work on these things:

Ball-handling in tight, grinder games
Late game decision making
Bench scoring
Play against zone

I'll say 10-8 with lots of close games.

FWIW, our offensive efficiency rating is lower this year than last according to Kenpom. The overall defense is probably going to be better, but not having Reaves (or anyone in his class) and too many turnovers will make offense a challenge against the defenses in this league.

 

[OULad]

8-10 is probably good enough

 

[NickZepp]

Depends on who we win over 7 wins could be enough.

 

[stormspencer]

We will certainly need a minimum number of wins. I'm going ahead and put the next two games in the win column to make us 10-2. From that point, I believe we very likely get in easily with 8 more wins so long as we don't drop a home game against OSU or K-State. Otherwise, there really is no "bad loss" possibility (Q-3 or Q-4 losses) on the schedule outside of those two games. Even a road loss at KSU or OSU probably won't be worse than a Q-2 loss at this point, however OSU could nosedive in the NET to get to that point. The only potentially bad loss that I see is the loss at home to Butler.....that will likely end up being a Q-3 loss.