It's all about matchups and how the bracket develops thru the tournament. I can remember years we thought we had a bad bracket but it imploded and if we could have won game 1 or 2, then we probably walk to the Final 4. The big thing is we don't want to play something like Syracuse in NY or Kentucky in Lexington or something really bad like that (Duke in Charlotte).
In 09 we had some good matchups until NC. Had they been in a different bracket we advance. Had we been in the Louisville bracket that year we advance as that bracket totally imploded.