From Ken Pomeroy's newsletter:
Hey, we have odds. But first, a few random thoughts.
The committee’s terrible SMU rationale
Pretty good job by the committee, who went by
WAB for inclusion with the exception of swapping in SMU for Auburn. Look, you shouldn’t feel sorry for Auburn, but if you are going to use a system you have to use it. The reason given for SMU’s inclusion was the terrible, awful, injury excuse. Presumably, BJ Edwards will be back for the tournament after missing the last six games for the Ponies, a stretch in which they went 1-5. I mean, all the big college hoops media guys are saying he’s definitely back. So he’s definitely back, right?
Right?
OK, cool!
Well, wait a second. “Expected to return” isn’t giving me a warm fuzzy feeling he’ll be back. I mean, SMU has every incentive to say this. And it’s not like there’s any penalty for being wrong. But hey, I’m sure they’re being honest!
Um, what? Like what are the chances he even plays?
Evaluating roster strength or the effect of absences should not be in the committee’s domain. For one thing, many basketball people suck at this task, and the people on the committee are not even basketball people. They don’t understand things like 3-point luck, which has killed SMU recently and has little to do with Edwards’ absence.
And furthermore, three of those losses while he was gone were by 8, 13, and 20 points. How many points do you think BJ Edwards is worth? No doubt SMU has played worse without him, but you just can’t ignore the last six games if you want to get into the roster evaluation business (which to be clear, you shouldn’t). BJ Edwards is not Michael Jordan. If you believe betting markets, Edwards is worth about 2 points to SMU. Hardly enough to explain all or even most of SMU’s issues down the stretch.
But aside from all that, why are we doing this to determine who qualifies for the postseason? No other serious sports league does this. Neither should the NCAA.