Can we win at the Phog?

pnkranger

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After looking back on the first game, I think it all comes down to rebounding/defense in the post. If we can keep Embiid and Ellis contained on the block, we can score with Kansas. But if those guys are getting second chance points, we are going to be playing from behind the whole game.

We're a better defensive team now than when we played them previously...but they are a more efficient team now as well. Should be an interesting game. At very least I want to make them sweat.
 
Certainly we can. It will be extremely difficult but we can. Won in Austin and Stillwater. Should have won in Manhattan and Morgantown. Could have won in Ames.


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Certainly we can. It will be extremely difficult but we can. Won in Austin and Stillwater. Should have won in Manhattan and Morgantown. Could have won in Ames.


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I know a lot of people will lament the Texas Tech and La Tech games, but that one in Morgantown is the one that haunts me. We had it won in the last minute if Woodard's lay in doesn't roll off the rim.

If we had pulled that one out and didn't lay an egg at home against Texas Tech, we would be playing to tie for first tomorrow.
 
Kansas is very good, is a tough place to play, and a bad matchup. That said, we're pretty good and can play with elite teams when we shoot the ball well, which we often do.

I'm really looking forward to this week. 2-0 and we're a protected seed. 0-2 and we're back to the 8-10 range. Split and we're probably a 6 or so.

KU will be favored by 10+, and the bookmakers and bettors have pretty strong incentives to be right. I say we really need to beat Kansas because once we sweep Texas, we'll only have one really good win (Iowa St). Kind of funny how if we hadn't swept Baylor and OSU, we'd have a couple more wins over sure tournament teams.
 
I neglected to mention how good we've been away from home this year, too. We have 7 wins over power conference teams away from home. Granted, only 3-4 have a shot at the tournament, but I'd bet there are fewer than 5 teams with more than that.

Oh that WVU game. What might have been.
 
Playing with house money tomorrow night. Win and things will get really interesting with opportunities for seeding. However, nobody nationally really expects us to win.

Then you turn attention to Texas. Sweeps over Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma State will all be bonuses come Selection Sunday. (At least one of BU and OSU will make it.) Splits with Iowa State and KSU (both tourney teams) are fine. Need to beat WV at home - would guarantee not getting swept by any other conference team (besides Kansas, possibly). Also, great chance at second in conference (Iowa State could stay ahead).

Thus, finish 5-1 including wins at OSU, K-State, Texas, WV and at TCU (scares me), we are looking at a 5 seed, outside possibility at a 4 depending on conference tournament.

Beat Kansas and the possibilities get interesting.

Reality is, not much to lose tomorrow night. But a ton to gain.
 
We can win. It won't be easy, but we are as much of a matchup problem for them as they are for us. We can pull their bigs out of the paint. They in turn can focus on the inside game when they have the ball. It should be an interesting game if we can shoot well from the perimeter.
 
I don't think this KU team is as good as some in the past but it's damn impossible to win in the Phog against any KU team. And Kansas plays their best under Self in Big 12 play as we've seen this year. I hope we find a way to keep it close and compete in this one.
 
It's all about shooting the three ball, and keeping Spangler out of foul trouble. Honestly, we play so much like the really good mid major teams that make deep tournament runs, and every top seed desperately wants to avoid. We are undersized, but have excellent guards, and versatile athletes who can play inside a little bit, along with one legitimate big man who will do things if he stays out of trouble. If we are hot from three, we can beat absolutely anyone.


Unfortunately, this isn't the tournament, and officiating in college basketball is an absolute joke. Being the home team is worth a very difficult to overcome amount of points in foul disparity.
 
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Spangler has to be an absolute beast on the boards and stay out of foul trouble. With that and good shooting from downtown, we may be able to pull this off
 
I'm not sure we can handle their size down low, but I do believe we are good enough we can beat them at home or a neutral site on a given day. It just feels like at the phog, even if we play lights out, they will more than likely be bailed out by officiating.
 
Hell yes we can win. The Phog has an incredible home court advantage due to the refs calling touch fouls one way and nothing the other, so that is the biggest obstacle. Kruger teaches defense with emphasis on not fouling so no time like the present to end the streak.
 
Of course we can.

I just don't see how Spangler avoids foul trouble.
 
When was the last time we won there.... Too bad Blake got hurt when we finally woulda pulled one out there way back when.
 
I'm not one who likes to bring up officiating, but that's definitely going to be an obstacle in their building. That played a huge part in us losing there in 2006. Our last victory in their building was 1993. Only Duke enjoys a more disproportionate advantage playing at home. I'm not saying we can't win there, but we'll have to play our best game of the season without a doubt.
 
Playing with house money tomorrow night. Win and things will get really interesting with opportunities for seeding. However, nobody nationally really expects us to win.

You are never, ever playing with house money. The second you win, it is your money just like your paycheck.
 
Defense and rebounding important. But to win, OU has to hit a high percentage of threes. Hard to ask, but somewhere around 50% will be needed. KU is just too big inside to hope we out rebound them. Need to outshoot them.
 
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