Consensus Bubble Watch

[campbest]

Sorry, but it's about the full body of work. The committee isn't going to drop a team out of the tournament based on OSU's metrics.

Out of their 12 losses, only one is to a non-tournament team (@Tech). A win over KU easily makes up for that in addition to their non-conference schedule. They will be the lowest seeded Big XII team, which is the correct thing to do.

Even without Cobbins, OSU is better than Providence, St. Johns, Minnesota, California, Tennessee, St. Joe's, Dayton & Arkansas...all of those teams are either the last 4 in or first 4 out.

 

[opsooner]

Since Cobbins' injury happened during their last non-conf game, and if you include that game, they are 9-10 during that time. They are a decent team, but are NOWHERE near the team they were prior to his loss. Without Smart's pre-season hype, NO ONE would even be considering them a tourney team I'd guess.

Agree. They might be considered on the bubble - which is where they should be in right now my opinion - but they would not be considered a lock. Then throw in comments from the "experts" that they don't think the selection committee will consider the games during Smart's suspension and you have further evidence.

 

[steverocks35]

Agree. They might be considered on the bubble - which is where they should be in right now my opinion - but they would not be considered a lock. Then throw in comments from the "experts" that they don't think the selection committee will consider the games during Smart's suspension and you have further evidence.

Yep, this is where the Marcus Smart hype machine rears its ugly head. No player in history has had more undeserved hype than that guy.

 

[MI Sooner]

Maybe. But I would have a very hard thime with a team that is 20-12 and 8-11 in conference getting in.

You have a big blind spot here, but I'm not going to get to take advantage of it because OSU upset KU, going 3-1, and thus making my our bet on the outcome of a 2-2 finish and a finals loss moot. (Although in theory they could still make the finals and miss the tournament, in which case you'd win the bet).

Look at the other teams on the bubble. Look at who they played, where they played them, and what the outcomes were? Their resume is better. Throw in a solid finish and some potential de-emphasizing of their three losses with Smart out, and they're a mortal lock.

If they get to the semis and lose (pretty much the same finish as 2-2 in the regular season and losing in the finals), they're probably a 7 seed or so. Not even close to the bubble.

 

[Section31]

Solid finish? They won 4 out of their last 10.

 

[Kewllane]

You have a big blind spot here, but I'm not going to get to take advantage of it because OSU upset KU, going 3-1, and thus making my our bet on the outcome of a 2-2 finish and a finals loss moot. (Although in theory they could still make the finals and miss the tournament, in which case you'd win the bet).

Look at the other teams on the bubble. Look at who they played, where they played them, and what the outcomes were? Their resume is better. Throw in a solid finish and some potential de-emphasizing of their three losses with Smart out, and they're a mortal lock.

If they get to the semis and lose (pretty much the same finish as 2-2 in the regular season and losing in the finals), they're probably a 7 seed or so. Not even close to the bubble.

Fully agree with this post.

I dislike OSU as much as anyone but to say that they should miss the tournament, or even be on the bubble, with their overall resume is just letting your hatred of them cloud your ability to think straight.

 

[Section31]

If you changed the name Marcus Smart to Buddy Hield, they'd be a soft bubble team. They had a couple of nice wins early, but had some equally bad losses late. Their best win during conference play was against an uninterested KU team.

 

[Section31]

I think you guys are confusing "potential" with actual "performance" which is ironic considering who their best player is.

 

[WTSooner]

If you changed the name Marcus Smart to Buddy Hield, they'd be a soft bubble team. They had a couple of nice wins early, but had some equally bad losses late. Their best win during conference play was against an uninterested KU team.

What bad losses? They lost ONE league game to a team not going Dancing, and that same team beat us in Norman (TT). They also lost three in OT during that stretch.

I don't like osu basketball, or much of anybody/anything associated with it, but I think they have a pretty solid case to get in. Beat TT, and lose to KU, and I see them in the 10/11 range.

 

[Section31]

What bad losses? They lost ONE league game to a team not going Dancing, and that same team beat us in Norman (TT). They also lost three in OT during that stretch.

I don't like osu basketball, or much of anybody/anything associated with it, but I think they have a pretty solid case to get in. Beat TT, and lose to KU, and I see them in the 10/11 range.

Again, I'm not saying they should be out, but I'm also not giving them brownie points for playing teams close. They won 2 road games in conference. My position has nothing to do with my like or dislike of OSU.

They lost to Baylor at friggin home. Our loss to TT has no bearing on their's being a bad loss. Ironically, Smart played in both of those games.

 

[Kewllane]

Again, I'm not saying they should be out, but I'm also not giving them brownie points for playing teams close. They won 2 road games in conference. My position has nothing to do with my like or dislike of OSU.

They lost to Baylor at friggin home. Our loss to TT has no bearing on there's being a bad loss. Ironically, Smart played in both of those games.

So K-State should be on the bubble as well, right? They have the exact same record and also lost to Baylor at home. Also beat KU at home just like OSU. Or was KU "uninterested" in that game, too?

OSU should be in and will be in. There's really no debate about it if you actually pay attention to the overall resume.

 

[Section31]

So K-State should be on the bubble as well, right? They have the exact same record and also lost to Baylor at home. Also beat KU at home just like OSU. Or was KU "uninterested" in that game, too?

OSU should be in and will be in. There's really no debate about it if you actually pay attention to the overall resume.

So, 10-8 = 8-10?

 

[skyvue]

Unless consideration is generally given to other teams when they lose a key player for a few games (and maybe it is, but if so, it's news to me), I see no reason why oswho should be given a pass for the three losses during Smart's suspension.

First, his suspension was for inappropriate on-court (a few rows off, actually) behavior -- why shouldn't that count against him and his team?

Second, because they'd already lost four games in a row with him on the court. I think the suspension did him/them a favor in one sense: it gave him time to pull himself together and get his head on straight (or straighter, anyway). He was an emotional bull in a china shop prior to that suspension and there is no guarantee whatsoever that their skid wouldn't have continued, anyway.

If Smart weren't on the team, they'd be on the bubble, plain and simple.

 

[Kewllane]

So, 10-8 = 8-10?

No, 20-11 = 20-11. The committee looks at the overall schedule, not just conference schedule. And that's how it should be.

 

[Section31]

No, 20-11 = 20-11. The committee looks at the overall schedule, not just conference schedule. And that's how it should be.

Agreed, but unless you're 12, you'd also know they've also ALWAYS placed a big emphasis on last 10 games as it's more indicative of who the team is that will be seeded in the tournament.

 

[DenverSooner]

So K-State should be on the bubble as well, right? They have the exact same record and also lost to Baylor at home. Also beat KU at home just like OSU. Or was KU "uninterested" in that game, too?

OSU should be in and will be in. There's really no debate about it if you actually pay attention to the overall resume.

KSU does not have the same conference record. KSU finished 5th in the conference and OSU finished 8th. They do have the same record on the season. I assume you meant for the season but I think the better conference record is significant.

OSU could argue the Smart suspension should offset that but I don't think that is a legitimate argument. Smart screwed up and got himself suspended. Those losses count just as if he had screwed up and was on the bench all game with foul trouble.

EDIT - I think OSU deserves to be in the Tournament. I think they are as good or better than virtually all of the 16-10 seeds.

 

[Section31]

Let me ask this question. What if they lose to TT?

 

[Kewllane]

KSU does not have the same conference record. KSU finished 5th in the conference and OSU finished 8th. They do have the same record on the season. I assume you meant for the season but I think the better conference record is significant.



OSU could argue the Smart suspension should offset that but I don't think that is a legitimate argument. Smart screwed up and got himself suspended. Those losses count just as if he had screwed up and was on the bench all game with foul trouble.

You're right. It should be considered, and it will be. That's why OSU will be a lower seed than K-State. But if their conference records are literally one game off. You take a win from K-State and give it to OSU, they would have the same conference record. That's how close they are in the best conference in the country.

K-State's best win OOC is Gonzaga. OSU's is Memphis (I know they did lose to them later, but it's still a good win). OSU's win over Memphis is much more impressive than K-State's over Gonzaga.

All I'm saying is that OSU shouldn't be on the bubble just like K-State isn't and shouldn't be.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[oSuJeff97]

If OSU loses in the first round I would ask whether only Nov and Dec matter. That would make them 8-11 in conf games. However, most people have them in no matter what. The reason given is that they lost some key players during the year - which is a ridiculous argument to me.

Except that nobody gives that reason.

The reason that everyone has OSU in is because what "matters" is the entire season.

OSU has 5 wins against RPI top 50 teams and no bad losses.

All of the teams that are still "on the bubble" typically have only 2 or maybe 3 RPI top 50 wins and a couple (or more) bad losses.

OSU's is Memphis (I know they did lose to them later, but it's still a good win). OSU's win over Memphis is much more impressive than K-State's over Gonzaga.

OSU also beat Colorado on a neutral court when they still had Dinwittle. (sp?) Colorado is still going to be a tournament team, and they would have likely finished near the top of the Pac 12 with Dinwittle.

 

[Max Power]

Unless consideration is generally given to other teams when they lose a key player for a few games (and maybe it is, but if so, it's news to me), I see no reason why oswho should be given a pass for the three losses during Smart's suspension.

First, his suspension was for inappropriate on-court (a few rows off, actually) behavior -- why shouldn't that count against him and his team?

Second, because they'd already lost four games in a row with him on the court. I think the suspension did him/them a favor in one sense: it gave him time to pull himself together and get his head on straight (or straighter, anyway). He was an emotional bull in a china shop prior to that suspension and there is no guarantee whatsoever that their skid wouldn't have continued, anyway.

If Smart weren't on the team, they'd be on the bubble, plain and simple.

I was thinking the same thing, if smart just fouls the tech player, gets up and doesnt push orr, osu loses anyways. Then the team doesnt rally around each other, they probably lose the next 3 anyways agains good teams that had already beat them. Ford doesn't expand his bench like he had to. Then they damn sure dont beat Kansas and they are hanging on for an NIT bid.